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Forget About The Bench - It's All About The Starters

This morning we talked about the bench, and while I do think that they could swing a game or two the clear focus in this series will be on the starters.  In fact, with all the rest in between games (3 days between games 2 and 3!) you'll likely see Doc tighten up the rotations tight and maybe even leave the starters out there longer than usual.

BostonHerald.com - starters’ minutes to expand

Doc Rivers will be thrilled if his bench starts to produce, but when the Celtics open their second round series in Miami on Sunday afternoon, expect the minutes of starters on both sides to climb. "(Depth) is important, but at the end of the day the starters are the key," said Rivers. "The starters have to play well. The bench has to help, and we have enough guys that that will happen for us as well. But let’s make no mistake, if your starters are playing well, then you have a very good chance of winning playoff games."

So it comes down to the glitzy matchups.

  • Dwyane Wade vs. Ray Allen - Wade has the advantage in theory but hasn't fared well against the C's lately.  The common school of thought is that he wears down while chasing Ray around screens.
  • LeBron James vs. Paul Pierce - Again, LeBron has an advantage but Paul is about as good a matchup against him as you are going to get on both sides of the court.
  • Chris Bosh vs. Kevin Garnett - Bosh is typically better offensively but KG is leaps and bounds better defensively, so advantage Boston.

If the Celtics can manage the disadvantages in those matchups or even break even (so to speak) then you have to like our chances because of Rajon Rondo's clear advantage over Mike Bibby or anyone else they throw out there.

Star-divide

WEEI - Celtics and Heat offer interesting matchups

But Rondo is the wild card in this series because asking Mike Bibby or Mario Chalmers to stay with him for 48 minutes may be asking too much. That could mean Wade or James switching their assignments to try to contain Rondo. "We’ll see one of those guys guarding Rondo, which means one of them aren’t guarding Ray or Paul, so we’re good with all those," Rivers said.

There are going to be games where LeBron and Wade simply dominate the game, regardless of what defense we throw at them.  They are 2 of the best talents in the league.  But talent doesn't always translate to winning.  Thankfully that isn't a one on one exhibition or even a 3 on 3 tournament.  This is 5 on 5 basketball and the best team will win the series.

I would take it one step further and point out that the Celtics are a "greater than the sum of its parts" type of team while the Heat are an "overwhelm teams with individual performances."  Even members of the Sixers noted that it felt like the Heat just take turns on offense rather than playing as a unit and moving the ball around.

Give me this team over their stars any day of the week.  It won't be easy, but I'm confident.  Celtics in 6.

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thata boy jeff

great preview.

Celtics in 6

wade and lebron will both win a game for them, but I think rondo’s dominance over their PG position forcing them to move Lebron onto him will be their detriment. Anytime you force a team to modify their defense in such a fundamental way I think over the long haul it will break their overall defensive scheme.

"Take it to the hoop, there's a dance involved." - DJ Tommy

by WillyBeamin on Apr 28, 2011 6:11 PM EDT reply actions  

Agree, great preview Jeff.

I have looked foward to dismantling the James Gang all season long. C’s in 6

by Warrior Spirit on Apr 29, 2011 12:31 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I disagree about Bosh...

…Being better than KG offensively. Especially when I’ve seen stretches where KG posts Bosh up and shoots over him at will, and Bosh has nothing close to a scoring counter against KG’s D.

Double Advantage = Boston

by Ergoat on Apr 28, 2011 6:18 PM EDT reply actions  

Its the lapses we will have when we get ahead that are going to be so hard to watch

I don’t doubt that we will lose at least one game that we are ahead by double digits in the third. But we will win out be just being tougher the last 3 minutes in more games than them. Celtics in 6 but if we had to, we can win a game 7 there.

by wahz on Apr 28, 2011 6:18 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm not sure about that one?

I love your work Jeff, but not sure about Bosh being better offensively than KG. Maybe at this stage of KG’s career Bosh might be better. But I’m not sure about that one. lol

by KWW on Apr 28, 2011 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

last I checked, they are playing now

so yeah, I’m sure about that

Faith and Sports - an essay by Jeff Clark

by Jeff Clark on Apr 28, 2011 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed

But not by a large margin. By KG’s own admission that is not his role with this team, and when his offense is needed he can turn it on with ease and get you 20 and 12.
The difference is that KG makes Bosh soil his shorts and holds his numbers down with KG-D, bosh can do nothing of the sort.

by Warrior Spirit on Apr 29, 2011 12:25 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Celts win in 6

Good call Jeff I came to that conclusion myself. I would like the celtics to win in five. “sigh” we will see though won’t we?

by masterchiefrainwater on Apr 28, 2011 6:54 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

If Rondo can rest his feet this week

he should have no reason but to blow by Bibby every time.

by thereallargejames on Apr 28, 2011 7:01 PM EDT reply actions  

KG can contain soft Bosh

C’s are going to defend the paint, the cHeat will be just a shooting team most part of the game.

by greenSD on Apr 28, 2011 7:03 PM EDT reply actions  

Call me crazy

But are bench will step up. I don’t know who but some1 will.

by CBleedsGreeN on Apr 28, 2011 7:04 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Call me crazy, but I gotta feeling the C’s will win game 1 or 2. If Shaq plays in game 1 then they’ll have a better chance to steal game 1 or 2.

by KWW on Apr 28, 2011 7:10 PM EDT reply actions  

We go where Rondo leads us

The Big Three will meet expectations. Ray will probably have a bad game, a lights-out game and several Ray games. KG will be just crazy. Paul LOVES this stuff and he’ll show up. Jermaine will make drives to the hole a little more difficult.

But Rondo can soar. He is capable of great play. Everyone knows that who follows Cs. But, will he bring it? Will he half ass the D against players who he feels he’s better than? Not this time of year. Will he make those 12 footers? Count on it. Will he double up the lanes. Yep.

by Wildblu1 on Apr 28, 2011 7:10 PM EDT reply actions  

3 x 7

we will destroy them under basket, our three 7footers (and their 15 fouls and 10 blocks) will cool theMFs down

by Dinko Sekerija on Apr 28, 2011 7:33 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm expecting big games from rondo and JO

They don’t have anybody to guard RR and probably same situation with JO (and Shaq if plays) so C’s in 6.

by greenSD on Apr 28, 2011 7:36 PM EDT reply actions  

Would Love To See James Or Wade Guard Rondo

That would probably mean they would play off him and be “middle linebackers”. But, Rondo has been shooting more and if this is the defense they will use, Rondo has learned how to exploit it. One matchup not mentioned is Rondo guarding James (or even Delonte). When Rondo did it in the second half of one game this year he basically shut James down. He played right up on him in the half court and forced him to face away from the basket. He also forced him to use clock while trying to dribble around Rondo. If James decides to be the point guard it is even more of an advantage to Rondo. I think DWest could do the same type of job. Add Green to this scheme. Green’s height could hurt him, but he is pretty quick. I don’t know if he could put the same ball pressure on James as Rondo or DWest. Pierce will probably be the main defender and he usually tries to force James to his left and make him drive to the basket. Baby and JO are good at taking charges and this could play into this scheme. Twill be interesting.
Over 7 games, I don’t see Wade of Bosh being major factors. The C’s seem to play Wade well and KG can get into Bosh’s head.

"I don't come to play, I come to WIN"--Larry Bird
"Criminally Negligent Officiating"--Tommy Heinsohn

by TrueGreen on Apr 28, 2011 7:36 PM EDT reply actions  

Yes I remember Rondo guardin Le..... and talking trash, love it

if LeQueen decides to play point guard Rondo will steal the ball, I think is Rondo’s advantage.

by greenSD on Apr 28, 2011 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Rondo did not do so well in the last game, but we shall know everything soon enough (as I said here is to a good series)...

and practice what you preach SD before you go accusing someone of trolling btw. See this is how it works, you say things like this over here, it is fine (a bit rude by responding directly to me this way, but so be it it’s your blog).

"When a hurricane damaged my father's house, my brother rushed over with a gas grill, three coolers of beer, and an enormous F**k-It Bucket - a plastic pail filled with jawbreakers and bite-size candy bars. ("When s**t brings you down, just say 'f**k it,' and eat yourself some motherf*****g candy.")"
— David Sedaris

GET TO THE RIM HEAT! ATTACK THE PAINT!

by mjtig on Apr 28, 2011 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

The team did not do well in the last meeting but

the starters played less minutesin that game than they will in this series. It was the tal end of the season, coming off a grueling last few games. Throw in the Celtics playoff experience, 4 years playing together, level of playoff intensity, no back to backs, plenty of rest and the team’s determination to win a title, and you have a different team come Sunday. The Heat will be in for a much tougher battle than a few weeks ago.

by JPV on Apr 28, 2011 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fair points--I looked at the minutes for the starters and they were about the same (the starter all got 30+ for both teams except for big Z and JO)...

it should be very intense and physical. I do think both teams played hard in that last game and the Heat big 3 had to log a tremendous amount of minutes also over the season and needed rest at the end and no back to backs works for both teams—the C’s have the edge with experience but players on the Heat have a lot also although not together. Rondo could be an x factor. Shaq could be a wild card but the Heat have bigs with size to match up. I don’t think UD will make it back although I have heard he might be back for this series—could use that consistent jumper and rebounding help. Two motivated teams should make for a good game—look forward to it.

"When a hurricane damaged my father's house, my brother rushed over with a gas grill, three coolers of beer, and an enormous F**k-It Bucket - a plastic pail filled with jawbreakers and bite-size candy bars. ("When s**t brings you down, just say 'f**k it,' and eat yourself some motherf*****g candy.")"
— David Sedaris

GET TO THE RIM HEAT! ATTACK THE PAINT!

by mjtig on Apr 28, 2011 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

disregard "a bit rude by repsonding to me this way, but so be it it's your blog...."

"When a hurricane damaged my father's house, my brother rushed over with a gas grill, three coolers of beer, and an enormous F**k-It Bucket - a plastic pail filled with jawbreakers and bite-size candy bars. ("When s**t brings you down, just say 'f**k it,' and eat yourself some motherf*****g candy.")"
— David Sedaris

GET TO THE RIM HEAT! ATTACK THE PAINT!

by mjtig on Apr 28, 2011 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

No big deal as long as you do it over here...

you did not respond to me so disregard “a bit rude….” as I said, but if you were to do so in the future, it would be rude, but so be it—it is your blog. I meant to reply to you in the other post about “bench players” because you accused HeatAllDay of trolling when you have done it yourself a bunch but not so much as of late, no need to start up again imo.

"Wally: [going home in a taxicab] I treated myself to a taxi. I rode home through the city streets. There wasn't a street, there wasn't a building, that wasn't connected to some memory in my mind. There, I was buying a suit with my father. There, I was having an ice cream soda after school. And when I finally came in, Debbie was home from work, and I told her everything about my dinner with Andre."

From the movie "My Dinner with Andre"
GET TO THE RIM HEAT! ATTACK THE PAINT!

by mjtig on Apr 28, 2011 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

If we simply win 1 of the first 2 in Miami..

then we take away home court advantage. The series then becomes a best of 5 with the first 2 games (and next 3 of 4) in Boston. And we have a 3 day break between games 2 and 3. It is quite likely we come back with the split, and then I love our chances. Of course we all hope to take the first 2, but a split is both realistic and not a bad position to be in coming back to beantown.

by JPV on Apr 28, 2011 7:58 PM EDT reply actions  

anyone guess what the our defensive schemes will be?

zone? trap? help d? man to man? keep the ball out of Wade’s hands and let Lebron or Bosh be the clutch hero? I actually think we defend Lebron strait up rotating Pierce, Baby and Green

by Banner 18 on Apr 28, 2011 9:09 PM EDT reply actions  

Baby?

If Baby ends up on Lebron too much, I think bad things to be honest. I’d rather see Rondo or West, as they will pressure him away from the basket, at worst forcing him into help.

by ewp on Apr 29, 2011 5:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

excellent analysis

The Heat have a real dilemma in that they can’t hide Wade on defense. He is going to chase Ray around screens for 40 minutes because they can’t really switch him onto Rondo. Ray and Paul are going to likely hold their own, keep it respectable; which isn’t good enough for the Heat. They need one/both of those guys dominating a game to win. This leads me to Bosh. I think this guy is the real wild card. I believe KG holds him down, but if he puts up 20, it’s tough to beat the Heat. I will take that guy being their wild card though, because i don’t think he has it in him to do it consistently, if at all, against KG.

by Crushmaster on Apr 28, 2011 9:39 PM EDT reply actions  

Too much talent to forget

the bench, particularly when Miami’s bench is usually non-existant; still believe in JG and what about Baby, Shaq?

by gocanes1 on Apr 28, 2011 9:45 PM EDT reply actions  

Yes, and Delonte W should be valuable

to help wear down Wade, and provide some offense, can Krstic give us something?
Shaq expected to practice tomorrow-more positive news

by gocanes1 on Apr 28, 2011 10:07 PM EDT reply actions  

And be helpful to get lots of doin yo mama taunts, gettin in Jas head.

by Warrior Spirit on Apr 29, 2011 12:29 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

The C's have a lot of weapons....

lets hope these WMD’s deliver…Celts in 6!!!!

by KubuliCeltic on Apr 28, 2011 10:43 PM EDT reply actions  

I think this will be the most entertaining series of the playoffs

that is, until the Lakeshow takes on the Celtics in the Finals once again.

Good luck Cs, hope you crush the Heat!

by BruinDrums on Apr 29, 2011 12:39 AM EDT reply actions  

Our bench has to play better

The truth is this bench has been underperforming compared with previous years’ benches (especially 2008).

They better man up if they want to help us win a championship. Without their best efforts, we won’t.

by KansasCelt on Apr 29, 2011 2:40 AM EDT reply actions  

what no respect for the assassin?

Joel Anthony lol. Kg’s words not mine. looking forward to a great series!

LETS GO HEAT!!!!!!!
Joel Anthony is the man
Henne please don't be good be Great

by sparker2513 on Apr 29, 2011 5:35 AM EDT reply actions  

Simple maths

Cs have 4 all star / game winners, Heat have 3.
Cs have a coach who consistently gets it right at crunch time (e.g. a TO with 20 seconds or less and down a possession), Heat dont.
Cs have one quality fit center, Heat dont.
Cs have three game changers on the bench, Heat have one (and that’s at a stretch).
The only way Heat can win is if LBJ and / or Wade have mad, crazy, history making performances for at least 3 games out of 6/7.
Not impossible but I like our chances.

by Derekg49 on Apr 29, 2011 10:07 AM EDT reply actions  

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