Alright, Let's Talk About Dwight Howard

The Dwight talk needs to stop, because there is little/no incentive for him to come here, not to mention Danny might have to compromise flexibility to sign Green + others for a run next year, and the ever-looming threat of the CBA

  I too think the chances of Howard landing in green and somewhere between slim and none. I don’t see Orlando making the same mistake Cleveland made by allowing LBJ to string them along for two years before leaving them holding the bag. Orlando will trade him before that ever happens IMO. Howard may try to string them along….or as he and his agent would put it, “keeping his options open”.

  If you believe he will be dealt, as I do then you cannot feel very strongly about Boston’s chances of landing him because we just don’t have the kind of assets it would take to get him.

 I just don’t see him becoming a Free Agent. He’s going to string them along as long as he can because he would love to hit Free Agency, who would’t?? He will string them along because he wants to be able to choose where he plays next. If he tells them he wants out like Carmelo did then they will trade him to the highest bidder and that might not be somewhere he wants to land even for a half a season. Remember New Jersey traded away quite a package for Deron Williams with no assurances he’ll be there longer then a few months. Someone would do the same for Howard and Orlando is under no obligation to trade him where he wants to go. In the instance that he got dealt somewhere undesirable to him a franchise tag could theoretically screw him over big time depending on how it all works in the NBA.

He has every reason to play this exactly the way LeBron did at least until the smoke clears on a new labor deal.

Even if we trade away our best talent to get him, assuming he wants out of Orlando, the Lakers can offer more, they would drop Gasol, Odom and Bynum in a heartbeat to get him

Dwight’s big thing has always seemed to be having good players around him. A lot of his threats seem to be of the “get some guys to back me up or I’m out of here” variety. If I’m Dwight Howard, are Rondo and Green all that appealing, especially long term?

Rondo definitely has his strengths, but nobody is afraid of him as a scorer. Every time I watch a game the commentators always say some variation of “Team A can live with Rondo taking jump shots.” And Jeff Green? No offense to the guy, but LOL. He seems to get a lot of love from some people based on what exactly? Potential? He’s not an established all-star and potential can go either way.

And, just as a quick aside, DH might be willing to take a pay cut if winning it all is more important to him. Lebron’s still getting paid an epic amount of money, but Cleveland could have obviously paid him more than anyone else.

First minor point the tax thing is not as big as some might think it is. Players pay taxes for each game played in the state it is played in. (would not want to be their accountant).

As for Howard. I personally don’t feel we will get him, however I felt the same way about KG so who knows??? There is always a chance however small it might be.

Some Celtics fans need a reality check. Don’t act like we can already get Howard and decide if we want him or not. We have almost no chance of getting him, if we can we do it right away but IF.

First off, most state income taxes are on the order of 5%. On a $20M income, that is indeed a big chunk of change at $1M (assuming all of that income was taxable) but I wouldn’t consider it a ‘huge’ factor.

Second, pro athletes who play in different states are required to pay state and local income tax in the cities where they play for the income earned in those games.

What this means is that even though Howard may be based in Orlando, he pays state/local income tax on a portion of his income. Off the top of my head, probably on about half his road games, so about a 1/4 of his salary is subject to such taxes.

This decreases the difference somewhat.

Yes, smart athletes need to hire really good accountants to keep track of all this to keep them out of trouble with the various tax agencies and the IRS!

Further, the fact is, that while it varies depending on your personal demographics, states and municipalities tend to suck up revenues one way or another in roughly equivalent overall measure. States that don’t have income taxes tend to have higher usage fees or consumption taxes or property taxes or excise taxes and so on. Barron’s does a study periodically that shows that the tax man gets you one way or another in every state.

So overall, tax differences between Orlando and elsewhere are probably a pretty minimal issue.

I agree with pretty much everything else in the article. I just don’t think we are going to be seeing Howard in green.

Dwight is playing in Orlando next year. If there is a next year.
The NBA and the players union are moving towards a lockout.
Very likely, there will be no season or a shortened season.

The Big Three and Rondo will be back if there is a shortened season.
Their legs will not be worn out and could challenge for one more title.

And has Dwight ever expressed an interest in playing in Boston?
Sounds like pipedreams to me.

as a bleed green celtic’s fan i’ll take whatever odd’s we have to get howard ,….i think with doc having a house in orlando near howard and he just signed an extension , maybe doc know’s something we don’t …..just sayin’

I never even entertained the idea of getting Howard. There has to be more attractive situations to play in than just teaming up with Rondo and Green plus whoever.

Hopefully the down cycle/rebuilding period is brief and relatively painless but I don’t think it’s avoidable. They’re going to have to be fortunate to get a high draft pick in a loaded draft. I’m also really interested in seeing how Rondo looks when he’s the undisputed best player and veteran leader.

You look at the choices of teams he’s going to end up on abd it looks like only Boston, Los Angeles, Orlando and possibly New York. I think New York is the least likely since they least amount to offer him since they have so much money into Amare and Melo.
I really don’t see him in Orlando since they cap sitution is HORRIBLE and they only chance he would have to return to the playoffs would be to pray Orlando drafts a superstar in the middle first round in the draft because they have very little young talent as almost everyone on the team has reached their potential and it still wasn’t enough to get them out of the first round this year.
The Lakers and Celtics look like the more obvious teams Dwight would want to go to but Boston seems like the better chance as he would play along side a young all star point guard and good veteran in Pierce and also be “the guy” then going to Los Angeles and playing with Kobe who you know has no intention of letting someone else carry his team. And whoe’s going to get him the ball? a 38 year old Derek Fisher and Steve Blake?

In the end, it is up to him as to where he ends up. As we’ve seen, in the NBA today, players of that caliber ultimately decide their own fate. It won’t be up to Orlando where he goes.

Danny has to decide whether he truly thinks its worth holding cap room open and trying to woo him (or to prepare the parts to participate in any trade Orlando might try to salvage value from him).

If he’s not extremely convinced Howard will decide to come here, Danny should just move on to other options.

I personally don’t think he’ll end up coming here.

L.A. to be the second option next to Kobe? Orlando to make the most money but have Hedo and Arenas as his two top players?

If we sign Green & Krstic long term, Green’s contract next year has to start somewhere at $4.5 mil. while Krstic’s start at $3 mil. By the following year, Green’s increases to say, $5 mil. while Nenad’s increases at $3.5 mil.

Pair that up with Rondo’s $11 mil. & they will be $18.5 mil. combined which can be traded for CP3’s $17.8 mil. & another minor player to make it even at $18.5.

LA would make a run for CP3 in order to attract Dwight (they already have an attractive coach in Mike Brown – & that’s why the Busses hired him over Brian Shaw), LA will surely be on CP3’s short list of teams to “sign & trade” as he has indicated in numerous times that he’s not interested to stay with Orleans. Boston won’t be in his short list because we already have Rondo.

But Orleans will plead CP3 to be traded somewhere East since LA’s a rival & that they don’t have a PG who can replace him (not Steve Blake nor Fisher) while Bynum, although big & strong, is not a priority like a true PG since they already have biggies in Okafor & David West.

Boston, having a true GREAT PG in Rondo, has this advantage over LA or anyone else! If Danny offers Rondo, Green, & Krstic to Orleans, they will tell it to CP3 who will at first be hesitant, but he’ll realize this is chance to form a super team with Dwight (& the Big 3) which can challenge Miami.

In Krstic, Orleans gets an effective shooting center who will provide great spacing for Okafor & D. West (he’s a better fit than Bynum), in Rondo they get someone a bit better than CP3 in steals, defense, quickness, & distributing the ball who can score some, but not as consistent as CP3, in Green they get a very good SF enabling them to move Ariza’s big contract or sub for him & vice versa.

In short, Boston will have the best offer of all the teams in the NBA yet Orleans has no choice but to grab the best offer since CP3 no longer wants to stay, he wants to form a super team with Dwight somewhere else.

As for Boston, we will be giving-up too much IF (& only if…) we stop at CP3’s acquisition.

But since Dwight is the ultimate goal, then it’s worth the loss!

Once we have CP3 & Doc, that will be attractive enough for Dwight to bolt-out of Orlando as it’s his only chance to go to a super team with a great coach!

This “domino theory” (of things falling to right places started by the first, small domino which is CP3) is what happened to Miami last year whereby there were so many contending teams for LBJ including Chicago that for awhile, Chicago looked like a serious destination…

…but it only took one small domino (Wade convincing Bosh to Miami) to make the “big domino” named LBJ to fall to Miami too.

Likewise, if we get “small domino” CP3 which is quite possible, then the “big domino” Dwight will fall to us like how LBJ did to Miami if Dwight is really serious about winning ASAP & so sick of losing.
 
With CP3’s $17.8 mil. salary in 2012 on board (while we waive the other minor player who comes with him in order to save a bit money), plus Pierce’s $15.3 mil. salary in 2012, that puts us to $33 mil.

If the new salary cap is lowered to $52 mil. with Dwight asking something close to what he’ll loose in leaving Orlando which is $19.2 mil., we can offer him $17 mil. which leaves us only $2 mil. to re-sign both 36 yo KG & 37 yo Ray to the minimum. We then fill-up the rest of the roster with the MLE & vet minimum & rookies.

If the MLE is lowered to $4 mil. (right now, it’s at $6.5 mil.), we can get 4 “old but still servicable” free agents who wants to win back to back before retiring. 39 yo Nash, 40 yo Kidd & Grant Hill, 36 yo Jamison, Vince, & J. O’Neal, 35 yo Rip are all free agents.

If we get 4 of them via splitting the MLE between them, we can add 2-3 more vet via the “vet minimum.” The remaining 3 spots then go to rookies (who doesn’t count against the cap) or some cheap pick-ups mid-season like how we got Arroyo, Sasha, & Troy.

But will KG & Ray sign for a mere $1 mil. each in 2012?

Well, they can tell Danny & Doc to negotiate with Dwight to accept $14 mil. which is similar to what Wade/Bosh/LBJ accepted in Miami.

If Dwight agrees as it’s his best chance to join a super team & finally win, then both KG & Ray will have extra money, albeit small.

But if Dwight will only go as low as $17 mil., (or say, $16 mil. if that’s what the new CBA sets the maximum), then Danny needs to explain to both KG & Ray that they can get more money in later years.

Meaning, they only need to sign for 1 year in 2012, then sign again for the minimum in 2013 yet also split the MLE between them that year since we don’t need to add anymore free-agents because we still have the “old but servicable” players on their 2nd & final year with us.

Then both KG & Ray can get more money in 2014-2015 when PP2’s contract expires. The $16 mil. that PP2 makes after 2014 can be split in 2015 between the 3 of them (i.e. $5.3 mil./year in 2 years.)

The MLE in 2015 then will be used to replace retiring players like Nash, Kidd, & Hill.
$5.3 mil./year for a 39 yo KG & 40 yo Ray (for their last 2 years with us) may seem a bit big but that’s their compensation for signing for the minimum in 2012 in order to get Dwight.

Also, by 40, both players will still have some efficacy left in their game given their top conditioning, all KG has to do is to concentrate on defense & rebounding. At 40, he will still be a decent match versus other PF of the league (much like how a 38 yo PJ Brown was) while Ray will still be stroking 1/4-effectively from the wings, but that 1/4 efficacy is still good compared to other SG’s while 38 yo Pierce will be in his last year too.

But having Dwight & CP3 at the helm will make things easy for them & vice versa, they will still be good complimentary players to both Dwight & CP3.

When they retire in 2016, then we will have 1 more space for another superstar which could be that 2016 free-agent superstar named Durant!

All of these may sound wishful thinking but it’s still in the realm of the possibility.

if Miami used us as a blue-print to their current super team, then we can return back the favor by also implementing their “domino theory,” of getting the smaller domino to fall first [Bosh] in order to get the “big domino” named LBJ.

Similarly, we can get CP3 first [the smaller domino] in order to get the big domino [Dwight].

But if someone beats us to CP3, having Rondo, Green, & Krstic is still not that bad of a building block, though a CP3-Dwight combo is more preferable for a championship run for years to come especially if we’re to go after a 3rd superstar post-Big 3.

Still sounds wishful thinking?