On and Off Rondo
An aggressive Rondo on offense is what greeted us at the start of this season as he attempted a combined 34 attempts making 18 of them against NY and Miami. He was rewarded with 23 visits to the free throw line where he converted 16 points. They did lose those 2 games but they were able to keep pace with the torrid offense of those 2 teams (albeit late in the game) and you have to admit those 2 losses were much more entertaining than they’re losses against NO and Indiana.
Right after these 2 games the most number of attempts he made in a game was 8, aside from the triple double night he had against Washington and the recent loss against Indiana where he attempted 10 and 12 respectively but still significantly lower than his first 2 games. As he loosened on offense he also went to the line less and less with the most at 7 free throw attempts in Washington and there were 2 games where he didn’t even make it to the line even once.
The confident jumpers that he took at the start of the season started to come few and far between afterwards, while his dribble penetration to the basket dwindled thus resulting to lesser chances to fish a foul to get to the free throw line.
I remember Paul Pierce saying in a report that this will be Rondo’s breakout year and I somehow believed that initially as he displayed a well rounded player that contributed on both sides of the court early in the season. Now we’re back to a Rondo that we’ve gotten used to see: a playmaker that is passive on offense.
Make no mistake about it; I worry for Rondo sometimes. In their game against NY there were times when I wonder whether he’ll still be able to get up after getting fouled so hard his body crashes down to the floor with such force it makes me grimace. But that is where he makes a living and a high percentage shot will always give you a better chance to score and maybe get fouled than settling for a jumper (unless you’re Ray Allen of course). And yes, he still has to be able to mix it up with his jumpers so that opponents wouldn’t sagged on him too much it nullifies his speed advantage to get inside the rim. And where is that tear drop he used to display whenever he attacks at the middle? Rondo is a very crafty player so there’s no reason to doubt his ability to be effective offensively. He only needs to be aggressive and stop deferring too much to the Big 3 and rather be an equal source of offensive production.
The bottom line is that for 4 years opponents of the Celtics have seen the same offense fueled by Ray Allen, KG and Paul Pierce while an endlessly rotating sets of players occupied the bench that offered no continuation or consistency on offense. By now, everyone knows what to expect from the Celtics and it’s up to Rondo to put a new dimension on those offensive sets.
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i still maintain
that the celtics and thunder should swap starting pgs, both teams would become much much better…
I dont care what the D.N.A. Says, the Guy wearing number 12 Cannot be Kirk Hinrich, he is definetly Kurt. Kirk can actually play basketball!
simple pierce was on line up 2 games all pressure came rondo
pierce returns he get all touches anyway he is still a point forward Russel Westbrook will fk everything up trust his hard headed and he is not consistent
i dont get how westbrook screws everything up
westbrook is not considered a bad guy, or a team cancer, hell, hes really not even considered selfish. He is considered a great scorer, free throw shooter, defender (at the pg position) and stat stuffer. He is given a bad reputation because he SHOULD allow durant to dominate the ball more, simply because durant is probably the best offensive player in the entire league, but when things get dire he tries to save the team and when he fails its made public knowledge…and no…he doesnt fail every time….just the times we hear about.
I think he could run the celtics offense well, but more importantly, his young legs and unique offensive (and defensive) abilities would allow him to pick up the slack for the big 3 so that they didnt have to push their bodies against meaningless teams.
I dont care what the D.N.A. Says, the Guy wearing number 12 Cannot be Kirk Hinrich, he is definetly Kurt. Kirk can actually play basketball!
Rondo is a MUCH better fit in this Celtics system than Westbrook would be. He’s a pass first PG – it’s not his job to be a ‘stat stuffer’ like RW. He’s a facilitator: the scoring is left mainly to the Big 3. If RW dominated the ball in the Celtic system like he can for OKC, you would see our offensive efficiency drop significantly.
Also, say what you will about the two PG’s offense, but Rondo is a far better defender.
"Can't eat sushi in Utah, brother. Landlocked."
by IsItTheShoes on Jan 10, 2012 7:19 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
"Also, say what you will about the two PG’s offense, but Rondo is a far better defender."
agreed….
as for the fit argument, my biggest problem with it is…how do you even know? A player like westbrook has never ever been on the celtics at the pg position, the closest thing you had was nate robinson, and that really wasnt all that close. I feel that rondo worked with the big 3 when they were capable of generating high level offense, so even when they had those dreaded droughts on offense they were capable of keeping their defense up and eventually regenerating that high offense to pull away from teams. That seems less likely to happen now because the big 3 trouble (at least in unison) to generate that offense anymore.
That is where the westbrook style of play fits in, when those droughts happen westbrook can go away from playing distributor and score the ball allowing the big 3 to rest up and finish the game as strong as they started. If your idea is, westbrook wont share the ball, there are plenty of stories of kevin durant and scott brooks proclaiming to the media that westbrooks hero ball is something they promote, so its not like hes villainified by his team for it. If doc and the big 3 wanted him to do less of that and told him to, i think he would stop, since there really isnt any evidence to suggest westbrook is some team cancer like selfish individual.
Rondos strength is revealed far more when he is playing next to high offense generators, the celtics big 3, miami big 3, durant…..rondo has the ability to make their offense even more efficient with his passing. The celtics big 3 are starting to show their age, and this regular season is becoming a nuisance to them, its better for htem to have a young pg like westbrook who can take up the bulk of scoring for the regular season and carry the team into the playoffs, from their the big 3 would be able to do what they do.
Objectively, i refuse to believe this is a bad trade….
I dont care what the D.N.A. Says, the Guy wearing number 12 Cannot be Kirk Hinrich, he is definetly Kurt. Kirk can actually play basketball!
"That seems less likely to happen now because the big 3 trouble (at least in unison) to generate that offense anymore."
That’s the thing, I don’t think it’s a serious problem. If you take away the Miami series, where our production suffered because of Rondo effectively playing with one arm, then our production overall hasn’t been too bad.
It works because everyone’s role is clearly defined. That’s why I don’t think Westbrook wouldn’t fit – we already have a guy who can score in ISO situations (Pierce). Having another dude in the lineup who dominates the ball with such frequency would hurt the offense. Westbrook’s usage rate was 31.6 last year – Durant’s was 30.6. The theory is, if he dominates the ball so much when he has the most gifted scorer in the NBA on his team, imagine him on the Celtics? To compare, Rondo’s usage rate was 18.3 last year. This is evidence of the style of offense the Celtics run – an emphasis on ball movement and rarely one guy dominating the rock. That’s the main reason why I’d hesitate to trade for RW. Basically, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
"Can't eat sushi in Utah, brother. Landlocked."
by IsItTheShoes on Jan 10, 2012 5:38 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
i lurked on this site last year
and there were plenty of references to the celtics “inevitable droughts of offense” and how whatever games you lost usually came due to those droughts in the 3rd and 4th quarters where you couldnt find anyone to score. As you start thinking about not just this year but celtics future, when the big 3 are gone (or older) where will the offense come from. What good is rondos amazing passing ability when the players to pass to become less offensively potent? westbrook helps you now and going forward, and ultimately if the bring 3 come back for another year or two, i think putting them next to westbrook allows them to be effective for that short period of time while the organization finds replacements.
I should probably stop with my insitence, since on both our parts, we are just speculating on what westbrook can do…i just think its ridiculous that celtic fans dont even like entertaining the idea of the benefits of having westbrook
I dont care what the D.N.A. Says, the Guy wearing number 12 Cannot be Kirk Hinrich, he is definetly Kurt. Kirk can actually play basketball!
thats something I agree with
Despite being arguably the best passer and defender (at his position) Rondo has a glaring fault that doesn’t help drive the offense. I’ve always said that a player like Rondo is unnecessary when he plays with 3 guys that can all create plays (admittedly their older now but Garnett, Pierce and Allen can all still pass very well). Getting a guy like Westbrook in who can actually hit wide open jumpers will make the defence close out on him more (unlike Rondo, the defence sags off of him daring him to shoot) which will hinder another teams ability to play help defence and in effect the big 3 will have even better scoring opportunities.
The only argument I have against this is that Allen and Garnett have changed into more catch and shoot guys since Rondo started running the show so their playmaking skills may have diminished. However I still think for now and especially the future a Rondo – Westbrook deal would work well for both teams.
Well, Rondo’s midrange shooting was better than Westbrook’s last year: something along the lines of 41% compared to 38%. He also took at least one less mid range jumper than RW last year. The whole ‘sag off Rondo’ defensive strategy opens the floor for Rondo to pass effectively at will: something he does far better than Westbrook.
"Can't eat sushi in Utah, brother. Landlocked."
by IsItTheShoes on Jan 10, 2012 7:57 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Does that stat show
How many of those jumpshots were taken with NO defensive pressure at all in comparison to a man right in your face? Because almost all of Rondos midrange jumpers are taken with no defensive pressure however I bet a good percentage Westbrooks shots are taken in the face of a defender. There is no argument here, Westbrook is a much better shooter and scorer than Rondo. And no, a defensive player who sags off a point guard who’s got the ball can defend the pass a lot better unless its passed at a 45 degree angle. Also it helps a slower defender defend the drive.
by AussieGreen on Jan 11, 2012 12:57 AM EST up reply actions
Well, Rondo showed against MIA and NYK that he’s certainly capable of being a scorer as well (albeit against weak PGs). I touched on it earlier, but you’d be sacrificing Rondo’s better D for the possibility of better scoring out of the PG position. Would that be worth it? I’m not saying we’d be a bad team, I just think with our win-now mentality Rondo is a better fit.
Ultimately you’re right, this is all just speculation. But it’s fun, lol. I can certainly see the merit in what you’re arguing though.
"Can't eat sushi in Utah, brother. Landlocked."
by IsItTheShoes on Jan 10, 2012 7:50 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
The "how do you even know?" applies both ways
You don’t KNOW Rondo would not be able to step up his individual scoring if needed in a system sans ‘Big 3’.
Heck – his anecdotal performances in games without all of the Big 3 present suggests that he is, indeed, capable of stepping up his individual scoring if needed: The first games of this season (No Pierce), the 2009 playoffs (No KG), etc.
Ultimately, we can only go by the information we DO have and make educated guesses. The usage data, the assist, ball-handling, defensive stats, etc., etc., all point to Rondo having significantly more overall value right now than Westbrook. That’s with each guy in their current system. We had know way to be certain that each might do better/worse if flipped into the other system, but right now the Celtics should have no incentive to want Westbrook over Rondo.
Westbrook has less time in the NBA and so his numbers may settle down at some point, but given their careers so far, Rondo has been far more consistently valuable. Rondo has been a rock-steady producer of Win Shares over his entire career. Even his rookie year, pre-Big 3, with a historically crappy team around him, he produced at a rate of .064 per 48. Since then, he’s posted rates between .126 and .179 for a very consistent average of .140 WS/48. Not surprising, a large component of that value comes from his defense which tends to not slump, but he’s also been very consistently valuable on offense because when you combine his points scored with the value of his assists, his point-creation rates are extremely high.
By comparison, while Westbrook had a great 2011, producing at a career-high .159 WS/48 clip, his prior best year was only .105 and his career average rate is just .098 WS/48.
Yes – Win Shares are not the end-all, be-all stat. This stat has plenty of shortcomings. But it is a reasonable proxy for point guards as it does take into account both offensive and defensive value components and in this case, the disparity between the two players is such that even with large error bars, it illustrates the point: So far in their respective careers, Rondo has been far, far more valuable to the Celtics than Westbrook has been to the Thunder.
So it should be understandable why there is not a lot of incentive by Celtic fans to want Westbrook.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
The frequency...
of shot attempts went down when Pierce came back. So that is only part of the reason Rondo’s O stats are shrinking. I think the other is Rondo just wants to show up for the “Big Games” or against the “Prime Time” players. Let’s just see how he does against Dallas and kind of go from there.
IMHO Rondo should attempt more shots or drive and dish more often. It seems he is hanging around the arc and dumping. This O thrives off his creativity.
See what I mean...
Had a nice night (24p-7a-3s) against the Champs. Next is D Rose and the Bulls. Should be a good one. Go C’s!!!
I agree...
at this time only. Right now, the old guys are not in position to receive a bag of popcorn. Rondo will have to just keep pulling up and play more conservative until he has some young blood that can run and play as well.
Heres what i think would happen if westbrook was on this team...
We would add another good jump shooter who can score. Our offense, though, wouldnt be increased because the assists that Rondo gets would just be replaced by the points westbrook scores. I think Westbrook is a great player, but he is part of the standard nba team build and unless you have 2 other serious scoring threats, hes not gonna make you team a contender. Hes not Kobe, basically, or Durant.
Looking ahead now. With Westbrook as our pg, unless we attracted two more 20ppg plus scorers, we would not be contenders. With Rondo on a rebuilding team, he will do what he has always done-maximize the offensive potential of a team. That makes everyone better. Instead of just having one guy who can create his own shot, you have one guy who can create a shot for everybody. That wins out whether you have a team full of all stars, or a team full of rookies.
All that said, I believe we have a better chance of winning a championship this year wit rondo.

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