Time For The Celtics To Rebuild
by dhodge34 on Feb 13, 2012 12:13 AM EST
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The past two seasons I have witnessed the Celtics come within one game from winning their 18th NBA championship. A season ago I watched them get bounced in the second round, by a powerful Miami Heat team. In 2007 Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett teamed up with Paul Pierce to try to win an NBA championship. When the Big three was assembled, the common opinion among the majority of analysts was that the Celtics would have a three year window to win a NBA title. The Celtics won the NBA championship in 2008 and reached the finals again in 2010. The Big three are currently in year five and Celtics are no longer among the NBA's elite teams. The Celtics core is old. Kevin Garnett is 36 years old and he is no longer the offensive go to player that he used to be. Ray Allen is at best a low end starter and Paul Pierce isn't the same guy that won the NBA finals MVP. Rajon Rondo, the teams best player still struggles with shooting.
I said two years ago the only way the Celtics will win a championship with Rondo is if he significantly improves his shooting. This has not happened, most of the time Rondo is timid and he is reluctant to drive to the basket because he is not confident at the free throw line. Rondo's perimeter shooting game in still non existent. I know Rondo played terrific today in the win against the Chicago Bulls(minus Derrick Rose) but he was ineffective against the Lakers, when they sagged off of him. Last year in the playoffs against the Heat, Rondo had little impact. Rondo is at his best when he is pushing the tempo and in this series, the Heat forced Rondo and the Celtics to play a half court game. As a result, the Celtics offense struggled late in games. The Celtics are not going to win a championship with this current roster. Paul Pierce's value is still very high and Rondo's value is even higher because of his age and his team friendly contract. If the the Celtics can get solid young return for these players, I think Danny Ainge should pull the trigger. There is no bigger Celtics fan than myself but I am a realest. I don't want to go back to watching a Celtics team that is in the lottery year after year.
Be respectful and keep it clean. Thanks.
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you're right...
In the playoffs the games slow down. This team as it is currently constructed cannot win the championship. Either they trade the PG for a center/competent PG, ie…Nash/Gortat, or they trade Allen/KG to get younger, more athletic pieces to run with Rondo. Either way, the roster as it is right now, equals a first round exit…
wont be a first round exit
as long as we get the 6th seed or higher. If we land the 7th or 8th seed, maybe.
Please stop with the nash gortat for rondo &… all your doing is adding age and a high paid role player
Gortat is not a highly paid role player!!!
His contract is very flexible for a center who is averaging a double double! Do you know how much centers make in this league? Nash might be old, but, except for today’s game, he’s outplaying Rondo this year.
absolutely
no way can this team possibly compete for a championship. two finals appearances in the last 4 years, a championship and two possessions shy of another, pretty much says it all — this team just does not have what it takes to compete with the teams and players that have proven themselves in this league, i.e. the heat, the bulls, the thunder.. amen to the realists, if only reality were so clear to the rest of us.
not really breaking any news here
this is my issue with the"blow it up" posts. people keep saying: trade player A if we can get good value for him. dont you think any gm will trade a player if they can get someone better in return? is there gonna be another gm that says: hey we have a player with more value than rondo/pierce/kg/ray but lets trade for them anyway?
at this point the cap space is more valuable than anyone we will get in return for kg and ray, rondo is underpaid at 11 mil.
I agree totally with your thoughts on this matter
Get Cap space and young potentials and draft picks. I say,the more the merrier. i Would not trade paul Pierce unless a great deal is on the table. as an example double picks and potential young guys with Hops and talent
by Moses Freeman Jr. on Feb 13, 2012 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
Someone Who Makes Sense (RM81)
Let’s face it Danny is always looking for trades to upgrade the team. Unfortunately, Ted Septian is no longer running the Cavaliers. Everyone knows Danny wants to make changes and no one is going to overpay for one of our over-the-hill stars. Further, most likely any 1st rd picks are going to be protected, so we can’t accidently wind up with a top 3-4 pick.
I think, there is a possibility around the trade deadline that someone might take Ray who is still one of the best shooters in the game (for a player and a pick). KG is a shell of his former self and we’d have to take back so much salary that it would kill our ability to sign FAs this summer. I don’t think Danny will consider trading PP, unless he request it himself. That leaves Rondo.
IMO Rondo is more valuable to us than to other teams. Do we want to trade Rondo for 80 cents on the dollar? That’s the reality!! When you trade from a weak position, you are asking for a trouble. PG is one of the most important positions and we do have an All-Star PG. Unless, I’m getting back a star player plus, I’m not selling.
It really depends which teams are in contention at the deadline. Obviously you might not get a player who is better then Rondo in the deal but you could receive a good package plus draft picks. Rondo is tough be you can’t build around him. I would trade him straight up for Gasol right now. I still believe Gasol in an elite player he is 5 years younger than Garnett. A line up of Gasol, Garnett, Pierce, Allen and Bradley is pretty decent. The Celtics could potentially resign KG and ray at small money and sign a few other free agents.
'a good package plus draft picks'
We already have 3 draft picks for this coming draft – which is considered a strong draft.
If nothing changes, we will use those three picks and go into next season with those three rookies plus JJ, Bradley and Smooge.
That’s SIX players on the roster who will be under 23 in age (4 of them would have been 1st round picks). Plus we could potentially be bringing Stiemsma back, who is also young (26). And Rondo(25). So that’s 8 of 15 roster spots that will be under 27. If we somehow retained Bass that would be NINE players 27 or younger.
Unless we trade up with some of these draft picks, we don’t need more draft picks.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
Bass has a player option right?
Might be tough, I could see him getting a raise this year, he’s a pretty good value at 4mil. Wouldn’t surprise me if he opted out and looked for more.
Yeah, I actually expect Bass to probably walk.
And I forgot to include Jeff Green – who will also be just 26 next year.
The point is, if nothing else changes, this team is set up to be VERY VERY YOUNG as of next year. Even if we resign Ray & KG to ‘friendly’ contracts, the roster will be dominated by youngsters.
Danny may decide to trade a bunch of that youth away, of course.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
no way
That not a winning team. if that is what you are trying to do plus Pau comes with a high price tag, we cannot use or need going forward into next year. Also, we would have to give up much more to make a deal for Pau work. Rondo is not enough by himself.
by Moses Freeman Jr. on Feb 13, 2012 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
I agree. One thing's for sure: these pieces don't fit with each other anymore?
Either you run with Rondo or play half court with the Big 3.
Disagree.
They fit just fine, Wilxcox, Johnson, Bass are all great out in transition, and athletic enough to finish on the move.
You don’t need five people to run a break, and Ray and Pierce are great trailing the play for spot up 3s if the defense caves in.
You basically need two guys to run the break, one big man getting out ahead of the defense, and the PG forcing the defense to stop the ball, there’s where you get open looks. If they manage to get 3 back, those guys are going to have to cave in to take away the inside look. This means open looks on the perimeter For Paul and Ray coming down on the break.
Ray actually usually runs with the break just fine - he is almost always down in time and sets up for the corner 3
while Pierce sets up for the trailer 3.
The missing piece to complete the transition is indeed to have a big who can get down court who can crash the paint for the oop or the trailer slam. When JO gets the rebound, KG is still reasonably good at getting up the court, but when KG gets the rebound, JO is not going to win any sprint races.
So, yeah, I have to admit that having Wilcox or JJ on the floor with KG does help us run that. The only question is gettng those guys to be fully reliable on defense. You need stops to trigger the transition game.
But you are absolutely right that it isn’t really a problem with the ‘Big 3’.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
Well, it's good to see our offense is working this year
That’s why we can’t score! What games are you guys watching? Our offense is terrible! These pieces do not fit anymore. (and the Bulls game has been an exception ratherthan the rule).
by Celticsdude on Feb 13, 2012 10:23 AM EST up reply actions
It's not really our transition offense that isn't working.
It’s mostly been our inability to work the ball inside on the half-court. And I don’t really put that on just Rondo. That’s a team effort that requires everyone to do their job when setting screens and moving without the ball. It takes timing and trust – teamwork.
The past few years the C’s have been one of the best teams at working the ball into the rim from the half-court set. But this year, we just look sloppy when executing plays to do that. People are late setting picks and then late using them. Sloppy, uncertain passes – people not instinctively knowing where their teammates are going to be.
The biggest problem I believe has been an inconsistent starting roster. We were without Pierce at first and then he (and KG) took several games to get up to speed. Then we lost Rondo & Ray. Now, we just got Rondo back. And people expect it to have been running smoothly, with no hiccups?
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
no one to work the ball inside to...
Docs 9-10 man rotation
Jo – no hops
KG- jumpshooter
Pierce-jumpshooter, goes inside 3-4 times per game
RAllen-jumpshooter
Rondo-can score in the lane when he chooses to
Bass jumpshooter doesn’t know the plays, has decentpost game, not getting playing time
Pietrus-jumpshooter
Wilcox
JJJ-kids got game, rookie who doesn’t know the defensive rotation
Bradley can score inside, but that’s it
Moore,pavlovic,Daniels,stiemsma…enough said come playoff time these guys won’t be seeing floor time, jjj will also see very limited minutes, unless doc develops him during the reg. Season or unless Jo, bass are hurt…
by greensince72 on Feb 13, 2012 1:32 PM EST up reply actions
Getting the ball inside is a matter of play execution.
We have the personnel to do this. We just haven’t consistently executed the offense.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
Playoff basketball is mostly half court and we are going to have to play Chicago and Miami two terrific defensive teams. The reason the Celtics have lost the past two years in the post season is because of lack of offense. The big three can’t carry the load offensively like they used to and last year they seemingly relied on jump shots. What I like about Gasol is how effective he is offensively on the block. Gasol has a number of great post moves close to the basket and he is also a terrific rebounder.
Everything about this post is...
Absurd. Trading for Nash? ARE YOU KIDDING ME?
Why does this site allow people to post such things?
Nash is 39 years old smartness. That’s not getting younger at all. And his defense sucks.
And since when does the half court not work anymore? THAT"S THE CELTIC"S GAME.
Do you people even watch the games or do you follow whatever espn says?
by Thecapedcrusader15 on Feb 13, 2012 7:50 AM EST reply actions
I watch EVERY GAME
And to say our offense is good is just not true. Our defense is elite, our offense is not. We’re a jump shooting team nowadays. If they fall, we win. If they don’, we don’t. The Bulls’ game was an exception to the rule.
by Celticsdude on Feb 13, 2012 10:28 AM EST up reply actions
The offense has never been elite.
They’ve always played a slow pace.
You can be elite on defense, and middle of the pack of offense and still be an elite team. If you’re elite at both… well then you’re the 72-10 Bulls.
Right now, they’re not middle of the pack on offense, and that’s a problem. But I think they’re making progress there, Pierce was hurt early, rondo was hurt later. The defense is back to an elite level, and the offense, when Rondo is doing what we know he’s capable of (i.e. playing like the Chicago game) is more than good enough to make this an elite team still.
08: our offense was pretty elite. Lakers 09: elite. Lakers 10: elite. Mavs 11: elite. In the playoffs, the pace slows down. You’re not running up and down the court all the time. It happens but it’s more about executing half court sets. Our offense is not good enough for us to contend. We’re too predictable and inconsistent. Live by the jumper, die by the jumper.
by Celticsdude on Feb 13, 2012 10:50 AM EST up reply actions
08, they were 10th overall in Offensive rtg.
Here’s the #s for 2008 (basketball reference)
Off Rtg: 110.2 (10th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 98.9 (1st of 30)
PTS/G: 100.5 (11th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 90.3 (2nd of 30)
So 11th over all PPG, 10 overall ORtg.
Clearly, they need to get better than the 21st ORtg they’re at right now. But my point is, with the defense still at an elite level (#1 points allowed, #3 overall DRtg) they don’t need to be top 10.
they need to be closer to top ten....
Than closer to the bottom ten….middle of the pack is 15th….
by greensince72 on Feb 14, 2012 6:22 PM EST up reply actions
you need both
the best correlator is net margin between your offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) and your defensive rating. Our defensive rating is very, very good right now (3rd). Our ORtg … not so much (21st).
Mostly, it has been getting better over the last few weeks though. It was dead miserable bad after the first couple of weeks. So it is getting better. Still a lot of inconsistency, though.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
being 28th in rebounding doesn't help us much either......
by greensince72 on Feb 13, 2012 1:35 PM EST up reply actions
Our rebounding could certainly be better, but please don't use rebound counts for comparisons.
Rebound totals are pretty much a useless stat for comparisons. Especially ‘total’ rebounds since they mix in both offensive and defensive rebounds – which have very different meanings. Throw in the wildly different Pace rankings of different teams and then comparisons of counts between teams becomes meaningless.
A more accurate measure of where we rank in ‘rebounding prowess’ is that we are 22nd in Defensive Rebounding Percentage at 72.8%. Not great in relative terms, though in absolute terms that’s essentially league average. I’d really like us to be in the top 10, though.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
so we are 21st in offensive rating, and 22nd in defensive rebounding % ???????
Doesn’t sound like a winning formula to me….
by greensince72 on Feb 14, 2012 6:26 PM EST up reply actions
We got bounced in the second round (semi finals) not the first round, by Miami
We beat New York in the first round.
Lost to Miami 4-1 and should’ve been 2-2 before Rondo went down.
It was over from that point.
Kind of shows how important Rondo is to our teams playoff success- he brings it when it matters.
Rondo didn't play well in the Heat series before the injury
Whether or not he could bounce back against the Heat and get us a win is just speculation at this point.
by Celticsdude on Feb 13, 2012 10:35 AM EST up reply actions
None of them really played great in the games in Miami.
Then again, they didn’t get blown out either.
They were in the lead in games 4 and 5 in the 4th, both if which Rondo was playing with 1 arm.
So you could certainly make a case that once the series turn to Boston, Boston could have taken it over were Rondo healthy. They dominated game 3, off a great performance by Rondo (up until the injury) and a vintage KG performance. That’s a series turning win, but unfortunately Rondo had to play the rest of the series with one arm, and the Big 3 just didn’t have enough to win it without him.
Rondo couldn't dominate Bibby in two playoffs games
MIKE BIBBY. Doc actually allowed him to go one on one against Bibby and he couldn’t take advantage of that matchup. I’m supposed to assume he was going to dominate after that? The Heat made adjustments against Rondo that were too difficult for him to overcome because… guess why… he can’t shoot.
by Celticsdude on Feb 13, 2012 10:56 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t think I’m alone here in saying that asking Rajon to go one-on-one is the best offense. I don’t even think we have players like that. Sure it’d be nice to have a Kobe or an 08 Pierce or a LBJ, but yeah.
What I’m trying to say is that those games lost weren’t because of Rondo not dominating Mike Bibby.
im confused
the first playoff game he played poorly: 3-10 8 points 7 boards 7 assists
second playoff game he went off: 7-16 20, 8, 12
third playoff game he dislocated his elbow. i dont think the heat made any special adjustments
Someone recommend this post?
This blog has members that are often like broken records, always repeating bogus trade and “blow it up” ideas. I agree that sooner than later, Celtics will have to rebuild to get younger it only makes sense, but right now it’s not possible.
The Celtics currently constructed as a veteran team like your Mavs, Spurs, Lakers and Suns, but none of these teams have valuable trade pieces to offer. If I’m a GM why would I want aging superstars in their early to mid 30’s, I would want to go younger.
Looking at the upcoming 2012 summer free agency there’s nothing out there that’s worth paying max value. Right now Celts fans will have to tough out this 66 gm season with ups and downs, and hopefully make it to the playoffs.
I don't get it - this post got promoted?
I wouldn’t say this is a ‘bad’ fan post. It’s a lot like a ton of others that have flooded CelticsBlog lately.
What’s new or of particular interest in this one?
I clicked on the article expecting maybe some new or interesting twist on the zillions of ‘blow up the team’ posts after the jump … and …. nope. Nothing new there.
On particulars, all it does is dismiss the ‘just one-game’ nature of Rondo’s performance in the Chicago game by citing LA’s defense in the thursday game (also, ‘just one game’).
Funny how, if it was really and truly LA’s defensive scheme that shut down Rondo then how come Chicago, with the league’s 2nd best defense so far this year – and certainly better defensive personnel overall than LA and a defensive-minded coach who knows Rondo as well as anyone couldn’t just ‘borrrow the blue-print’?
The truth is the tactic that LA employed doesn’t really shut down Rondo. There is a good article on Reds’ Army (check the archives) that looks at how team’s try to sag under screens on Rondo in the same manner as LA has employed and how the Celtics have a half-dozen plays designed to defeat that strategy.
The truth is that while Rondo was on the floor the Celtics were +6 over LA. The truth is thus that, no, LA didn’t win because they sagged off Rondo. The truth is that in that game, LA won by destroying our bench. Our bench coughed up a huge lead in just a tiny handful of minutes. Our starting 5-man unit was +7 against LA. We lost by 1 point. Do the math.
I’m not going to say that Rondo’s play has been consistent. It has not. But I think the reasons for that are not so simple as implied in this article’s ‘analysis’. The whole team has been sick with inconsistent performances from almost everyone. Welcome to the NBA, circa 2011-2012.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
I could not agree more with all of this.
I’ve also seen this too many times.
by green18, 19, 20... on Feb 13, 2012 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
actually our bench is the best its been since 2007-2008
Our bench, with all the new pieces is averaging over 27pts per game, while holding the other teams bench to 24, bets margin since our big 3 came to town…
by greensince72 on Feb 13, 2012 1:39 PM EST up reply actions
I like our bench a lot.
But in the LA game they were dominated because while most starters were resting, Mike Brown left Bynum and Gasol out there to play against Bass, Smooge, Wilcox & Pietrus – and they had their way with them.
This is all measurable: EVERY ONE of our bench players posted a negative +/- for the game except for Daniels, who barely played at all (he was +0).
Every starter was positive, except for JO, who was also +0.
There is no spinning about this. When our starters were on the floor, we outscored LA. When our bench players were on the floor, we were outscored by LA. And unfortunately the latter was one point worse than the former.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
Partially true.
But the bottom line is Rondo was on the floor at the end of the game with a chance to win it. And on 3 consecutive positions, he was unwilling to pull the trigger when Kobe sagged of. This led to late shot clock toss ups from Pierce, or rushed shots from Rondo when noone else could get open and he had no choice.
When he steps up in rhythm, and finds his spot on the shoulder, he can hit those shots, we’ve seen it before. But when he’s tentative to take it, when he waits till the end of the shot clock and rushes it, that’s when he struggles. That’s what happened in LA.
So was that the only reason? No. If the team boxed anyone out, all night long, or the bench didn’t choke away that lead, then clearly that would not have mattered. Doesn’t change the fact that he could have won that game in the 4th anyway, and failed to do so because he was unwilling to attack the sagging defense.
No, completely true.
Every one of those truths I listed is just that. The truth.
Points scored or surrendered at the start of the game are JUST as important as the last point.
Trying to assign different weight to points scored at various times game is just rationalizing to make one play more or less important than it really was. Otherwise, you can pick any play at any point in the game and just arbitrarily decide, “Oh THAT was the key play of the game! That’s when player X lost/won the game!”
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
"Last year in the playoffs against the Heat Rondo made little impact."
You do remember that he played with one arm for most of that series, right?
The only game Rondo was effective against the Heat was the game when he hurt his elbow. During this game Chalmers and the rest of the Heat where afraid to go near him for some reason. The Heat for the most part forced the Celtics to play a half court game and not let Rondo beat them in transition. Rondo couldn’t consistently knock down shots and as team the Celtics had major issues scoring in the fourth quarter of those games against the Heat. Pretty much every game was close until the forth quarter when the Celtics went dry. The biggest problem is that KG, Paul and Ray are no longer capable of carrying the offense and getting to the line like they used to. Look back to game seven against the Lakers, the Celtics basically were content with just shooting jump shots late in the game. The Celtics also are not a good rebounding team which is very important come playoff time.
The last time I checked,
rebuilding does mean being in the lottery year after year. Weren’t we supposed to be rebuilding in the 90’s?
as it now stands
we are going to have plenty of Cap space at the end of the year when KG and Ray salaries come off the books two we will have 2 first round draft picks in the mid to late first round depending on how the clippers play and how we do as well. Maybe by trading those tow we could have at least two additional first round picks all of which could be trading chips down the road. the same way Danny did with Jefferson, Tony Allen and D. West and Green Teams wishing to make the playoffs with young talent and first round picks like the Rockets, Lakers, Grizzles, Nuggets, and T’wolves. could use our guys including J. O’neal and Rondo and Pierce if necessary and the right deals can come together. I am sure Danny has is eye on such type deals.
by Moses Freeman Jr. on Feb 13, 2012 1:18 PM EST reply actions
jermaine Oneal is just salary filler...
As are Daniels, pavlovic, dooling, stiemsma
We could get some value out of bass, Wilcox, perhaps pietrus.
DA is not sending out jjj, moore, Bradley…
Pierce, Allen, KG won’t be traded because we won’t get a good return VS keeping them….
i think we might send bradley
if we dont think he has much more ceiling then his value wont be higher than right now
by JuJuan some moore on Feb 13, 2012 5:46 PM EST up reply actions
Ray Allen a low end starter?
Are the Celtics right now a Championship contender? NO.
Is not having a consistent inside presence a major issue? YES
Is Ray Allen a “low end starter” at best? YOU MUST BE CRAZY
Ray Allen is far from an issue with this team. The problem is you have a point guard that needs to go go and go (yesterday against Chicago was great to watch) and you have three aging but yet effective veterans that are all perimeter players. Should and can KG get more offense going 12 feet and below? Yes. But it has not happened with consistency though he is having a very good stretch right now not counting his shooting against the Lakers last week. Plain and simple this is a different team if the Perkins deal was never made, or even if Jeff Green was healthy. But we can’t play that game anymore.
The Celtics should and can win this division which should be very interesting and exciting down the stretch. Either way as long as they are a #3 – #6 seed they win the first round.
One last thing, with KG, Bass, O’Neal and Wilcox all healthy this is a front line that will battle you and run the floor (well, not O’Neal but the other three) so you never know…
Ok. 1st off, I’m on board with keeping rondo. But if they absolutely had no choice. They had to move him for any reason. I thought to myself what do I think would be fair..
So….
To Boston. D. Collison, P. George. & D. Ebanks.
To Indy. Rondo, JO, S. Blake & E. Moore.
To LA. Dooling, Daniels & D. Jones.
No picks involved. La gets the fast PG they want. A sg that can defend.
Boston gets really young and athletic. Indy gets the franchise PG, big man depth. It also allows boston to utilize the bigs they have more. Run! Johnson, Wilcox, kg, bass & stiemsma. I don’t know what happens this year no trade or yes trade. But I think this is ok for all 3 teams.
No chnace in hell either Indy or LA do that.
Indy’s giving up a good young point guard (borderline very good) and a great young SF (border line potential superstar) for, Rondo? Ya, not likely.
LA already has PG problems, so now they’re suppose to give up their only decent one (let’s face it, Fisher sucks) to bring in… Dooling?
Um, probably not.
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