Sanity Check II: Still About KG and Pierce
by drza44 on Feb 22, 2012 10:11 AM EST
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On March 8 2010, the Celtics were well in the midst of a mid-late season swoon that would drop them to their worst season to date in the new Big Three era. Celtics fans were distraught, arguing back and forth about the window being closed, about who was a "real fan", who was too polyanna optimistic vs. who was too gloom-and-doom pessimistic. Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce had both been in-and-out of the line-up with injuries, and after a fast start it seemed that the team had lost whatever magic they once had.
In the midst of this, I pointed out what was (to me) incredibly obvious: Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce are the two best players on the team, and through age/injury neither were enough on their own to carry things like they once had. But TOGETHER, they still made this team as formidable as any team in the NBA. Here was the money section of my post, which I called Sanity Check: The Elephants in the Room
In 2010:
When KG and/or Pierce don't play: Celtics are 9 - 10 with a scoring margin of -0.8.
When KG and Pierce both play: Celtics are 31 - 11 with a scoring margin of +7.1.
Just to complete the sanity check, that win percentage and scoring margin with both KG and Pierce playing would currently be second in the NBA, just behind the Cavs and ahead of the Lakers.
As you might recall, during that postseason the Celtics got healthy and, what-do-you-know, shocked the world by beating up on everyone in the East (including those Cavs) and coming within a coin flip of the title in 7 games against the Lakers (I was at that Game 7, and I still have nightmares about the confetti. But I digress).
Now, it's two years later. The Celtics are two years older. And without the scorching November/December start that the Celtics always get out of training came, this year's team has moved straight to the January/February swoon that they ALWAYS have every year of the new Big Three era. But with that said...the bottom line story is incredibly similar now as it was then. Forget what you heard, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce are still the two best players on these Celtics. And, as coincidence would have it, whether they play or not makes a huge difference. I'll even put it in the same format as the 2010 quote above:
In 2012:
When KG and/or Pierce don't play: Celtics are 0 - 6 with a scoring margin of -11.7.
When KG and Pierce both play: Celtics are 15 - 10 with a scoring margin of +4.5.
Just to complete the sanity check, that win percentage and scoring margin with both KG and Pierce playing would currently rank the Celtics among the contenders in the NBA, behind only the Bulls, Heat, Thunder, and Philly and battling the Spurs (+4.7) for the last top-5 slot.
Now, is everything right in Celtics land? Of course not. No matter the situation, the team should be playing better than it is. Plus, the team has obviously struggled during periods of malaise (especially early in the year) in which Garnett and/or Pierce have both seemed to be laboring. But even with all of that, when KG and Pierce both play this team is still one of the best in the league. And if Danny doesn't blow it up, don't be shocked when once again the team suddenly seems to be dramatically better in the postseason. It's not magic...it's just that for some strange reason having their two best players on the court at the same time makes them a much better team.
Go figure.
Be respectful and keep it clean. Thanks.
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+1 and rec'ed
It’s pretty glaring. Look at how we’ve played without KG these last few games. Just awful.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
Pierce
Trade him to the Nets for Brooks and Humphies we need some scoring and rebounding and blocks throw in Bass…….
? Did you read this article?
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
What do you think?
Besides why would the Nets ever take that? They’re about to lose Deron Williams so they basically have to stockpile all of the limited talent they can.
Rec this a million times.
Can’t possibly agree with this post more.
i agree
The glaring fact is that the celtics had too much invested this yr. The bench is better but JO has forgotten how to play. He was brought in to work with Shaq and that failed.
At the end of this season , Ainge will take stock and make his move. As he has always done it could work (a championship, a finals, division titles and conference crowns) or it could blow up ( perkins trade) but whatever he does it will be to benefit the team. The core is sound, but one or two shrewd additions and the celts will be better.
at the end of the season ?????
There will be no stock at the end of the season except for Pierce, Rondo, Bradley and Bass if he chooses to stay. All other contracts will have expired. The team will have blown itself up automatically so to speak. Essentially, the core will be gone. If Danny is to make any moves it will have to be prior to March 15 the trading deadline.
by Moses Freeman Jr. on Feb 22, 2012 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
I agree for the most part, but
I think it isn’t just about Pierce and KG or even mostly even if they are the most important players (small distinction, but I think an important one).
At this point they need EVERYONE. They need Rondo to generally make the right decision, they need Ray Ray to space that floor, they need Bass to provide scoring and fresh legs off the bench, they need Pietrus to take way too many threes, and they need Dooling’s decent two-way play.
The rookies/younger players are helpful in limited spurts, but the players above are the ones that really win the game.
Valid.
There’s no question about it, the Celtics need every single one of their guys playing well to have any chance.
They’re not a team that going to win on the backs of 2 or 3 players, and the rest of the team is just there for the ride. Which is a source of both their greatest strength, and greatest weakness.
Truth of the matter is, we really haven’t seen this team yet this year in 100% form, with all players playing the way their capable of. We’ve seen great stretches from Rondo, while is hurt/ineffective, great stretches from Paul when Rondo is hurt, great stretches from Ray while Kevin dealt with bangs and bruises, great stretches from Kevin while Ray can’t seem to buy a jumper (and also missed games with the ankle.) And to top all of this off, the teams most important bench player (Bass) has been out for an extended stretch.
Yet we still expect this team to be playing at an elite level, and people are lighting the bandwagon on fire because their 15-16. Come on…
The point isn't that KG and Pierce do it alone...
…but the point is that KG and Pierce are at the center of what the Celtics do now, and that they are relied upon more than their teammates. And I don’t really think that’s debatable at this point.
This post quotes the results from 2010 with them in vs out.
In 2011 KG and Pierce were both top-5 in the NBA in on/off +/-, far ahead of their teammates.
And of course, the post again highlights what’s happened without either one of them this year.
Meanwhile, the Celtics’ best stretch of the season (wins over Orlando twice and Indiana, as part of an overall winning streak) came when both Rondo AND Allen were out.
And again, it’s not to say that Rondo and Allen and the other players aren’t vital to where this team needs to be. If Rondo wouldn’t have hurt himself last year in the playoffs, there’s a legit chance we beat Miami. If Perk doesn’t get hurt in game 6 against the Lakers in 2010, there’s a legit chance we win that championship. The other players absolutely, positively matter. BUT.
It’s both accurate and not disrespectful to anyone else to say that KG and Pierce are the keys to this team. Rondo and Ray and everyone else are important. But it starts with 5 and 34, and if they are both where they need to be then the rest can fill in around them.
I fully got the point you were trying to make
I just thought that it could also be misconstrued a bit. I fully agree with everything you said and while I could argue that Rondo is every bit as important it’s just semantics at that point.
Great post.
Disagree.
You’re going to have to beat Chicago and Miami at some point, why not make it the first two rounds.
The same argument was said in 2010, “No way you can go through Cleveland and Orlando on the road.”
Honestly, I don’t think this team cares who they play, or where. It’s not about the other team, it’s about them. When they play the way their capable of, they can beat anyone. Anyone.
well that breakdown makes me feel a ton better
And Paul played injured for several games which might actually make the differences between 2010 and now contract more. I don’t know that, but maybe?
If we could add a rebounder going into the playoffs without losing anything, we’d dramatically improve out chances.
I quit reading here
Just to complete the sanity check, that win percentage and scoring margin with both KG and Pierce playing would currently be second in the NBA, just behind the Cavs
You should read again.
Cause that was talking about 2010.
I think you stopped reading before that...
…otherwise, you’d have seen the very key “In 2010:” written above that statement.
Then, if you continued to read you’d see that there is another section marked “In 2012” in which the teams ahead of the Celtics with KG/Pierce healthy are headlined by the Heat, Thunder and Bulls…
Too old to react
I am not buying it. This is about age. Even when we have the full complement of players, we still get beat on hustle plays….yep, and that includes rebounds.
Rebounding is a problem, no question about it.
And they’ve lost a lot of 50/50 balls.
There’s no question it’s more than just KG and Pierce being out, but the fact is, without those two guys this teams goes from “pretty good, possibly fringe contender” to “Completely mediocre” and there’s a lot of evidence to support that.
Interesting Numbers
Seems to indicate the team doesn’t rise or fall with Rajon Rondo. This team needs an influx of prime frontcourt talent going forward not being a team built around a point guard.
Well Rondo missed 8 games.
And the team went 6-2.
So no, it certainly does not rise and fall with Rondo. Rondo is a piece that can take this team from “pretty good” to “contender”, when all the other pieces are clicking as well. But he in and off himself is not what makes the team.
More numbers
That show that KG+PP+RA+RR still work very well together:
http://www.celticsblog.com/2012/2/22/2815990/big-4-one
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
Agree, but
I get what you’re saying and agree with the main point you’re making. I still feel, however, that this team, even when healthy, has a poor chance against the top contenders in a playoff series. We are a better team this season with those guys, but clearly as we go further down the road these guys will be less and less able to compete with the best. So, I’m not saying trade someone or don’t, but I guess I just think that even with those two playing we are probably not going to go very far. But overall, I really enjoyed your article and analysis.
by celts city on Feb 22, 2012 12:13 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Reality Check...
…these guys are old and even though they have good stats together injuries will continue to happen. We are almost half way through the season and the Big 3 have all suffered injuries aleady. What are the odds the second half of the season will see them healthy and on the floor at the same time? The older you are, the more fragile you body becomes and the longer it takes to heal those bumps and bruises. Those are impressive numbers but father time could care less.
15-10
still not too impressive considering the lack of top competition they’ve faced so far.
even if healthy after the all-star break, this team will be a 7th or 8th seed come playoff time. if lucky, they won’t be swept by either Chicago or Miami because they’ll put it together for a game or two but there’s just no sense of urgency with these guys anymore. It seems that they’ve been on cruise control since 09 playoffs when they tried like hell but came up short against orlando.
You must have been sleeping through the entire 2010 playoffs then.
Game 7 NBA finals… whew man you’re right. They haven’t been trying at all.
/end sarcasm
I think not having Bass has hurt too
He’s one of the key guys off the bench. Also, what’s going on with Quis?? He hasn’t played in awhile either.
The system is built around those two
It´s not surprising to see these stats.
What they show is, that even if everything went perfect, we´d be behind 5 other teams in the standings.
They also don´t consider the strength of schedule, or that the number of games without either one is a very small sample size. It could have a million reasons, like the fact that our system is disrupted when one of them don´t play.
You also simply count the 6 losses as wins, although we only win 60% of our games with both of them in the lineup.
I´d say back to the drawing board, drza44. Maybe you should do the same exercise with games with and without Rondo.
I'm not sure what you mean...
I didn’t count any losses as wins. I merely said what their win percentage and scoring margin were when both KG and Pierce are playing.
As for the sample size, again, this is why I went back and posted what happened in 2010. And I’ve also noted in the comments that Garnett/Pierce were both top-5 in the NBA in +/- for the entirety of the 2011 season. This is quite a bit of back history that supports what we’ve now seen in 6 games this season.
As for Rondo, the Celtics are 6 – 3 without him thus far in 2012. They were 9 – 5 without him in 2011. So that’s 15 – 8 without Rondo over the past two seasons. BUT, in 5 of those games that Rondo missed, KG either missed as well or left injured in the first quarter and in those 5 games the Celtics were 1 – 4.
So, in games that Rondo missed but KG/Pierce played over the last 2 seasons, the Celtics are 14 – 4.
No worries, I'll translate it for you.
What he means is…
“I barely grazed the article but I’m going to pick it apart anyway.”
You´re right
I made a mistake, you didn´t count the 6 losses as wins.
Still no consideration of the schedule. The stats for 2010 without our star players are pretty meaningless, since the rest of the team is a lot different.
Again, it´s no surprise to see our bad record without KG and Pierce. The system is geared towards those two.
There´s more, of course
Like the fact that our competition looked a lot different two years ago (Miami, for example), or that our two stars are two years older.
suggestion
loose rest of games and get 1st pick in draft so you can get quality players?
Suggestion.
No.
No offense zappop, but that type of mentality is junk in my opinion. And honestly 90% of the time people start talking about “tanking” for better draft picks, those are the same ones jumping off the bandwagon and rooting for the Heat come playoff time while saying “Ya, I’ve always been a fan.”
I’m not saying that’s you, just that it happens all the time.
You also have to consider, no real professional athlete is never going to do that. This is their job, their livelihood, and better yet, it’s their lives. There’s this thing called “pride” that’s not going to let a professional athlete lose games on purpose. And even if there wasn’t, what’s their motivation? What do they care about Boston’s draft pick next year, or the fanbase gettting the “next face of the franchise” for the future, most of them won’t be around for it anyway.
SINKING FAST
Cleveland, Milwaukee and Detriot are right behind our butts, if we don’t do something forget the play-offs……….
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