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Why the Celtics Should Trade Rajon Rondo for Pau Gasol

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During the last 12 hours, the Rondo-for-Gasol swap has been discussed at nauseam by Celtics fans (and Lakers fans.) Celtics fans nearly universally agree: bad trade. The Celtics are going into a rebuild, and despite Rondo’s flaws, why in the world would they trade a 26-year-old point guard entering his prime for a 31 year old big man who is declining? Fair question. However, there are many good answers.

Star-divide

First off, a total rebuild of the franchise is something that should be of last resort. Preferably, the team would ‘retool’ and get back on top quickly. Much like how the Lakers have done things the last 35 years. This was supposed to be the plan when the team was to acquire Chris Paul. Boston would have Chris Paul for this season, take one more run at it with the Big Three, and then hopefully Dwight Howard were to soon follow. Swapping Gasol for Rondo would almost assuredly make the Celtics better for 2012. It would give The Big Three one last run at capturing the 18th flag, no matter how much of a long shot it’d be. The team as presently constituted (a team that rebounds with the worst of them, and cannot close out games) has no shot whatsoever. At this point, it’s even questionable that these Celtics would win a playoff GAME, much less a playoff series, and much less Banner 18.

However, the real method to the madness is simple. The Celtics still feel they have a puncher’s chance at Dwight Howard this summer. Now I know whenever that is mentioned, it actually angers some Celtics fans. Because people from Boston just accept that no one wants to play in their lame, miserable, overly-taxed town. And if you don’t accept that thought, then you are a fool. However, Ainge still feels the gamble is worth it. And ask yourself this, what is more worth it? Taking a 5-10% shot at a game-changer in Dwight Howard? Or blowing up the whole team, going through a miserable season (or three, or five, or ten), and then hoping and praying for ping pong balls, in the perfect year, and for the perfect player? And then hoping he pans out? What are THOSE odds? 0.3%? And considering you have to throw away season after season in the process? According to Adrian Wojnarowski, Dwight Howard has stated that if he were to be a Laker, he would want to play alongside Pau Gasol. Not be traded for him. Ainge is a mad scientist. He sees that, and is thinking that he could sell Dwight, and even point guard Deron Williams, to play along side Gasol, and be coached by Doc and form a new Big Three, (Paul Pierce would of course have to be amnestied to have both Howard and Williams here.) Odds are this happens? Very slim. However, is the gamble worth it? Absolutely. First off, if Dwight Howard reaches free agency, Boston will not be competing with the warm climates of Phoenix or Los Angeles (unless the Magic do a Bynum for Howard sign-and-trade.) They will be competing with Brooklyn. Right now, Dallas (who WOULD be the heavy favorites) is not in a position to land both players until they find a taker for Shawn Marion’s contract (and then amnesty Brendan Haywood.) Knowing that taking on Shawn Marion would be a precursor to Dallas putting together 3D (Dwight, Deron, and Dirk), who is going to bite on that? Certainly not any Western Conference team. Unless there is no chance, you always take wild gambles to get stars. Stars win championships. If you fluke into a star or two, whether its through miraculous free agent signings or the draft lottery, the gambles are worth it.

If Dwight and Deron don’t sign here, then what? Are the Celtics screwed because they would be ‘stuck’ with a declining 31 (32 this summer) year old big man? Absolutely not. Unless the Celtics are taking back added salary with Gasol that could affect their cap moving forward (like Ron Artest or Luke Walton), the Celtics will still have plenty of payroll flexibility, which is pivotal for a rebuild. Just last December, the Houston Rockets gave up Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, Goran Dragic, and a #1 draft choice for Pau Gasol, in a deal which was killed by David Stern and a few small-market owners. The Minnesota Timberwolves, this year, were interested in trying to put together a package that was centered around Derrick Williams (the #2 overall pick in the draft), and other young pieces for Pau Gasol. Gasol is just as valuable to a rebuild as he is to helping the team on the court right now. He has a lot of value around this league. And if the Celtics don’t feel that a big man in his early to mid 30s is going to help this team on the court in a rebuild, then they can easily trade him. Could the Celtics get Nikola Pekovic from Minnesota for Gasol? Could a Gasol to Houston deal be revisited (with old friend Kevin McHale, no less – hey how did that turn out last time?)? Every team in the league needs big men, much less those that are talented. Gasol could easily be moved for important pieces towards rebuilding the Boston Celtics.

Rajon Rondo? Not so much, well not as much as some would like to think. As we all know, there aren’t many teams banging down the door for his services. If he really was a ‘top five point guard in the NBA, who is also 26’ as many Celtics fans point out, well then Chris Paul would be a Celtic right now. The fact is, Rondo does not have as much value around the league as most Celtics fans presume. Couple that with the fact that almost every team in the league has a decent point guard, his value is even lower (where as opposed to Gasol, as has been pointed out, having good big men who can play both the 4 and the 5 is something any team would take.) And if this team really is going to have to go into a rebuild, and have a team with plenty of young players – then Rajon Rondo must be kept away from it as far as possible. He is already a moody player as it is now, and sulks at times when things don’t go his way. What if he’s on a team of young players who may make the occasional great play, but follow that up with another three to five boneheaded plays, and the Celtics are losing 50-60 games a year? Does anyone think that will end well for Rajon Rondo? Put it this way, if Rajon Rondo were on the this year’s Washington Wizards, and Wizards teams moving forward, he would fade into oblivion. The Celtics are aware of this too, and they want nothing to do with Rajon Rondo being on a rebuilding team. That’s why it is all but inevitable that they will move ahead and deal Rondo right now. And to those who are upset at dealing a ‘young star,’ ask yourselves this: How many more years do you see Rajon Rondo being a very effective point guard? Do you see Rondo even being above average when he is 30 or 31? As is, he already bangs around the court hard enough, seemingly falling awkwardly onto the court more times than anyone in the NBA. It is very likely he breaks down. We are starting to see glimpses of this with wrist injuries, plantar fasciitis, sprained ankles, etc. And not to mention, his gruesome elbow injury in the post-season last year. But more importantly, when he starts losing some of his athleticism in his late 20s (which is now only about 1-3 years away), how is he going to remain effective? What if, in the half court set, he can’t blow by his defender anymore? Is he going to make defenders pay with that jump shot of his? Rondo’s defense this year has already regressed, as well. Some players peak in their mid 20s, and there are good odds that Rajon Rondo is one of them. Fact of the matter is, Rondo’s game has not improved one iota since 2008. He may have sharpened the edges a bit on his overall game, but he has added nothing to his repertoire. Contrast this to Derrick Rose who added a mid range game in his second year, and an outside shot his third year. All while going from a below average free throw shooter (and costing Memphis the 2008 National Championship) to an exceptional free throw shooter. Let’s not get into this aspect with Rondo.

The Boston Celtics are going to trade Rajon Rondo one way or another. The Lakers are a logical fit because they are a team in dire need of a point guard, (and since the inception of Linsanity, may be the only team left in the NBA who truly needs one that bad.) If a Rondo-for-Gasol trade goes by the wayside, then the Celtics will never see that kind of value for their best trading chip ever again. Pau Gasol helps this team in 2012, puts them in a better position to land Dwight Howard and Deron Williams in the summer, and is a better trading chip to help with a rebuild down the road if it ever does come from that. If Danny Ainge is presented with a Rajon Rondo (and Jermaine O’Neal’s expiring contract) for Pau Gasol, with no draft picks, no Brandon Bass – then he should take it and run.

Be respectful and keep it clean. Thanks.

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None of the things in the last paragraph are true

Rondo is a FAR more enticing trade piece with his age than Gasol at this point in his career. Adding salary for this year and subtracting a piece for the future will NOT help land guys like Dwight Howard. We saw what Deron Williams did to Jerry Sloan. Do we REALLY want this guy OVER Rondo? And likely at 1.5-1.75 times the price tag!? Rondo isn’t perfect, but as the saying goes, known devils are often better than unknown devils. Any scenario where we trade a healthy and impactful point guard for a player who is over the hill in NBA years and may only give KG-like production for 3 more seasons is highway robbery. So in other words, I completely expect Danny Ainge to do it.

by chicagomaroon on Feb 26, 2012 11:23 PM EST reply actions  

Okay then

Good luck fielding a contender with a selfish, max-contract point guard that ended the career of the longest-tenured coach in the NBA.

by chicagomaroon on Feb 27, 2012 1:24 PM EST up reply actions  

You lost me at "amnesty Paul Pierce"

Sorry, but my faith in humanity will be lost if Paul pierce wears a nonceltic jersey that doesn’t say “all-star” on it

~Aaron

by bostonceltics on Feb 26, 2012 11:40 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Hasn't improved since 2008???

He has become a triple-double factory, and has become one of the premier distributers in the game.

by dslack on Feb 27, 2012 12:52 AM EST reply actions  

sucha long post...

that does not make sense..id take rondo 10x out of ten over Gasoft any day. Its the reason whythe Fakers are trying to fool DA into thinking that we are better off with Gasol when we r not.

by bopna on Feb 27, 2012 4:16 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

I agree that Gasol has more value than Rondo but that’s only because he’s a big man. Not because of his production, age or contract. I don’t think Rondo will be traded but I do see Ainge moving KG or Ray. I don’t know how Ainge could move KG but I definetly see him moving Ray.
The thought of trading for Gasol & then trading him for someone else is interesting. I might do it then but like the vetoed CP3 trade, NOTHING is guaranteed until they sign & a press conference is held. But that is an interesting thought.
The only part I disagree with is that Rondo hasn’t improved since 2008. That is ridiculous…& amnestying Pierce?! Let’s relax here.

by Mub33b on Feb 27, 2012 8:37 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

Well thought out and persuasive post....

I was on the fence about this trade until I read it. Now I am for it.

by csfansince60s on Feb 27, 2012 8:45 AM EST reply actions  

Mubub33b:

-Gasol has more value than Rondo but ‘only because he’s a big man, not because of his age and production.’ ??? So what? All that matters is he has more value than Rajon, now and over the summer.

-Like you said, ‘nothing is guaranteed’ but I think we have a pretty decent understanding of Pau’s value. You can easily revist a trade with Houston (which as I pointed out, would be pretty easy esp with our old friend Kevin McHale, and even former Celtic front office member Daryl Morey – who is the GM of the Rockets now). Houston has plenty of interesting pieces. Heck, since Pau’s value has declined a hair since the ill-fated CP3 three way deal, I’d tell them they could keep Martin. You could just take back Patterson or Budinger, if not both. Minnesota also has some very interesting pieces as well. Both of these teams would almost certainly throw in a draft pick as well.

Even Michael Felger pointed this out last night (who is not exactly Mr. Basketball), if the Celtics had Rajon on a team next year without much of that veteran leadership to keep him in line (which I think is an aspect not many look at - look how bad it has gotten for Glen Davis in Orlando where the idiots run the asylum there), what are the odds that he becomes a complete malcontent and his trade value becomes all but nothing? 95%? As I said in that write-up — Ainge knows this. Boston is trading Rondo, he will be nowhere near a rebuilding team. Heck, he already went into total tank mode for March and April last year (right after they traded his buddy Perkins), and arguably cost the Celtics the #1 seed in the conference, and DEFINITELY the #2 seed (Boston was 3 games up for the 1 seed in Mid March and 5 up for the 2 seed, and they fell all the way to 3.) Hell, that was for a competitive Celtics team. How’s it gonna go for a Celtics team that is losing 45-60 games a year???

-If Danny is getting anything for Rondo, he’s got to do it now. And there’s absolutely no chance in hell do the Celtics see anything of the value of Pau Gasol ever again. So you don’t do this Pau trade, and the Lakers go out and fix their PG situation with something else. Then what? First off, there’s another team that would have a Point guard. What are the Celtics going to trade Rondo for? The only scenario I could even imagine is Utah, for say Paul Millsap – which I would not mind at all, even though Millsap is due a contract extention that would probably be at 4-5 years close to the max. But I’d doubt even that would work out because there’d almost be a bidding war for someone like Millsap.

-Ask yourself this as well. Team X and Y are always interested in Pau. Yet I never hear about Team Z interested in Rondo. Ainge is always trying to jam him down some team’s throat. Moving Pau would be infinitely easier than moving Rondo, even at his age and salary. Teams always needs bigs. And almost no team, besides the Lakers, and maybe Jazz and Magic need a point guard.

-Pierce would only be amnestied IF they got both Howard and Williams to sign. Just like how once the Knicks got Chandler to agree to play for them, they went out and amnestied Billups (which they were not going to do until they had Tyson agree.) Same situation with us.

by t.w on Feb 27, 2012 9:07 AM EST reply actions  

You hit the nail on the head on a lot points

but there are a few things I don’t really agree with or just want to nitpick a bit at.

First of all, the whole Dwight wants to play with Gasol seems a bit misleading to me. I think what Dwight meant wasn’t necessarily that he wanted to play with Gasol, which I’m sure he does, but more to do with how pairing him and Bynum up would make no sense. Also, it’d be Gasol AND Kobe, so…there’s that.

I think you’re overstating Rondo’s moodiness and unwillingness to play on a non-contending team, but that’s just my opinion.

His jumpshot is still more or less nonexistent, but he has tried to make up for it. His off-ball cuts and play is constantly underrated or left unnoticed and he’s become a much better and aggressive finisher. Obviously, this is just sharpening the edges like you said, but he has improved his game by a healthy amount and while a jumpshot would be nice to pretend as if these improvements are marginal or unimportant seems unfair.

Everything else, though, I more or less agree with. I don’t particularly love or hate Rondo and I don’t agree that he HAS to be moved, but I wouldn’t mind this particular trade.

by muckduck on Feb 27, 2012 9:57 AM EST reply actions  

This is a good analysis and I hate to say it but

It makes sense. A good point guard is not what this team needs now. It needs rebounding. If Rondo was a play making point guard ala derrick Rose or chris paul, then sure keep him. But this team can get buy with a servicable point guard that can dish the ball and and run the offense. Bradley/Dooling/Moore are all potential in that capacity. What Rondo does bring is a PG that sometimes wants to be a SG/SF. It’s nice but it has not always translated to wins. So instead of running him into the ground trying to have him play two or three roles, trade him and get what we really need which is a scoring big. If Doc can manage Gasols minutes we could have some nice frontcourt depth. We’ve got young legs that can be sporadic when shooting…what we need is someone that can grad the ball when they are off. Not that this is a substantive indicator but the Offesne did run better with Rondo not starting. Im not saying its better without him, but it may be that him doing too much, is too much, when we really just need someone to do just enough. Furhtermore, it preserves the Big 3, whom, for sentimental reasons I would like to see finish out one more run. Cant wait till march.

by cltc5 on Feb 27, 2012 11:37 AM EST reply actions  

Rondo has still gotten better every year, even if his jumper is not where it should be

Some people in other threads were saying Rondo is now a good jump shooter and just needs to shoot more often with more confidence, I don’t think that is true but it has gotten better. His passing and defense are also better give him some credit. In the end this only makes sense if Gasol is going to be moved for young pieces/expiring contract. It would be impossible to have Deron/Gasol/D12 unless their teams are willing to help out with sign and trades so we can go way over the cap like Miami did. Cleveland and Toronto did it for the trade exceptions, NJ and Orlando won’t be so willing.

by kg2128 on Feb 27, 2012 12:06 PM EST reply actions  

I love Rajon Rondo

I think he’s an athlete that we wont ever see again in the NBA. Some of the things he can do from the point are astounding. His rebounding and ballhandling are unparalleled.

All that said, I would do that Gasol trade in a millisecond. You win the title by controlling the rim as we learned in ’10., and those things Rondo can do are slowly becoming things he used to do because of the beating he takes with the style of play he needs to use to be effective.

Keep Pierce and Allen. Trade KG and Rondo now.

by Grasker564 on Feb 27, 2012 2:27 PM EST reply actions  

....

How can you say yes to this?

by AUSCeltic on Feb 27, 2012 5:01 PM EST reply actions  

Ainge is trying to trade Rondo...LA is trying to trade Gasol

Would LA be better with Rondo? Don’t know, but Fisher is toast and Rondo has proven he can play well with a couple, of hall of famers now hasn’t he?
Bryant + Bynum + ? + Rondo = better? Would have to say yes.

Gasol traded to another team for a chip that might help C’s with the DH deal?

by tstorey1 on Feb 27, 2012 6:47 PM EST reply actions  

Do the Deal!

I have been advocating a rondo for gasol deal for a couple of months now.. I think this is a great post.. as presently constituted the celtics have 0 chance of winning the title this year.. with gasol, they have about a 5 percent chance.. but even for the future, you don’t want rondo in a rebuidling situation..his flaws become more obvious the less talent he has around him and his game is based primarily on athleticism that may decline sooner than later with the pounding he has taken.. i think that doc and danny lost alot of faitih in him with how he pouted after the perk trade last year and the seed slipped as a result..
This team currently is a half court team with a transition point guard.. its alot easier to get a big guy who would fit perfectly with that mold and solve the interior scoring/rebounding issues that are glaring and ultimately fatal weaknesses..than it is to completely transitoin to a team that would fit rondo.. when he isn’t even good enough to be the best player on a title team.. I don’t even think that’s debatable..Do the deal danny! people on this board severly overrate gasol, when the reality is celts would have 18 banners in the rafters if he hadn’t murdered kg on the boards in game 7..

by antibucher on Feb 27, 2012 7:12 PM EST reply actions  

I thank God........

that none of you have the ability to trade anyone. In the origional post, you make it sound like the elbow injury in the playoffs was because RR is fragile. Are you friggin kidding me? BUT you don’t mention that he came back to play in that game with a dislocated elbow!! Yep, that’s fragile and a bad attitude for ya. PLEEZZZZZZZZ!! If ya’ll want Gasol, I prefer to trade a few of the posters on this blog. And please, of all you guys who favor trading Rondo, please tell me which person in the Celtics management or player in the locker room said/says Rondo has a bad attitude and sulks. It is VERY easy to just make something up and run with it. Share your source!

by CelticsUKfan on Feb 27, 2012 7:22 PM EST reply actions  

AMEN BROTHER!

Unless we can get Kobe too it’s a useless trade. We don’t have anyone as talented as Kobe. So with just Gasol we’re a lottery team.even L.A. may be a one N done in the playoffs. Rondo is a much more desireable talent. He makes everyone around him better. This trade would benefit L.A. only.SO BOSTON FANS! are you willing to trade away a player that is still in the making and greatly improved over last year. For a near future HASBEEN. And possible give the Lakers another banner. I as a 45 yr. Cs fan vot NAY! Rondo is EXCEPTIONAL. End the freakin trade talk involving Rondo.If your hard on trading someone K.G. 25 million a yr. or Ray- Ray might get us a better return in the long run. I’m sorry but i cringed at a Chris Paul for Rondo trade.

by Pat's apologist on Feb 27, 2012 9:24 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree with the part you said about Rondo

He hasn’t got a jump shot. Traditionally point guards who rely on their athleticism but never develop a jump shot fall of the face of the planet at around 30-31. Point guards who can shoot remain an effective part of a team well into their 30s. But still I’m not keen on paying Pau Gasol $19m when he’s 33. He’s already shown a decline in the last 2 years (admittedly this is partly due to Bynums emergence) and I highly doubt he will be a major factor in getting Howard and / or Williams to play for the Celtics. Once again trade Rondo, but not for Gasol.

by AussieGreen on Feb 28, 2012 12:47 AM EST reply actions  

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