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Bulpett: Maybe The Lottery Wouldn't Be So Bad

Steve Bulpett takes a look at the Celtics current situation and thinks that the Celtics wouldn't be so bad off if they took a step back and missed the playoffs this year.

Celts react to evidence - BostonHerald.com

So Ainge would be out of his mind not to see what every player in his employ would fetch. It’s also fair to assume he’s been doing that all along — and according to multiple league sources, there just hasn’t been much call for the Big Three.

It’s also interesting to hear cries for the Celtics to blow things up or rebuild on the fly, when they’ve already tried (offering Ray Allen to Sacramento for Kevin Martin in 2010). And by making sure Allen’s deal expired with Kevin Garnett’s and not signing Glen Davis to a multiyear deal and avoiding players who might make them marginally better but handcuff them in the longer run, the Celts have given themselves a fairly clean slate. It was a timed implosion.

The belief here, too, is that the Celtics wouldn’t mind getting worse to get better . . . you know, buy a lottery ticket. If they could find a deal that got them something for the future (a draft pick or the rights to a currently entwined foreigner) but hurt them this year to the point they missed the playoffs, a lucky bounce of the ping-pong balls might be the best thing that could happen to this club. Or do you forget what a Mr. T. Duncan did for San Antonio’s fortunes?

A week or two ago this opinion was all the rage on with many Celtics fans. Funny how a winning streak changes things. Or does it. Sometimes it is hard to tell without putting up a poll, so that's what I'll do.

Of course everyone would prefer to win a Championship (or at least make a good showing). But if you start (like Steve does) with the assumption that this team isn't good enough to beat the Bulls or Heat in a first or second round series, then you have an interesting choice to make. See the poll.

Poll
IF you assume the Celtics can't beat the Bulls or Heat; what would you prefer as a fan?
Give it a shot anyway. Rather go out fighting.
897 votes
Blow it up if you can to take a chance in the lottery.
379 votes
Retool on the fly and see what happens.
273 votes
Other
24 votes

1573 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 43 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Comments

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this is crap..

why tank when you have what it takes to make a run? nothing is certain, especially the future..the hell with draft picks, its a hit or miss thing, why people are so adamant in this makes me wonder..the future is now, you are accountable for the “now”…and i say, we can do it now!

by greenlion on Mar 6, 2012 6:51 AM EST reply actions  

Yup.

Lygafe

Lionel Gaffen / Fotomix | International Hockey Forums > Europe > ISRAEL
Israel Recreational Hockey Association 2009-2010 & 2010-2011 [ Lygafe ] | Israel Ice Skating Federation - From the Media [ Lionel Gaffen ]

by lygafe on Mar 6, 2012 7:05 AM EST up reply actions  

Exactly

Why ppl can’t figure it out it’s beyond me. It’s the end of the big three Era and you’re asking them to just bow out and settle. I say go out with a bang. Like you said, the future is now. Why creep when you feel the need to soar? We have a chance to make history again. We can’t coward out of it

by Clench on Mar 6, 2012 7:41 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I'm all in:

blowing it up but keeping Rondo or his traded-for equivalent could get you to the lottery, whende the C’s could emerge with four critical star pieces:

1) Rondo or equivalent
2 & 3) room for two max salary FAs
4) a young stud from the draft

Hanging in for a run would take away #4 and without that it may be less likely that you could lure #2 and/or #3—leaving you with Rondo and the Should-Be Retirees—an ugly situation indeed.

by clover on Mar 6, 2012 7:28 AM EST reply actions  

What would Red and Russell do?

I can’t believe this is even up for discussion. Celtics don’t tank and to do so now when we are healthier and closing in on the Atlantic Division is lunacy. No way.

by JPV on Mar 6, 2012 7:55 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

Add a missing piece before the trade deadline.

Get a big man and add another one like Beasley. Give it a shot. They are doing well now and don’t ever think of the lottery – that is a step back. I still think they have something left in the tank for another run this year.

by TSV on Mar 6, 2012 7:59 AM EST reply actions  

torn

between give it one more shot and blowing it up.

I’m rarely on the fence on how good I think this team is but over the past 4 games with KG at center and Bass starting, this team has looked much better. If Danny can turn our end of bench trash (dooling, sasha, daniels) into something of value to help with the run, I’d like to see what they can do in the playoffs. If they somehow win the division, which was unthinkable a few weeks ago, I think they have a remote shot at this. I still think they can beat the Bulls in a series. I don’t know about the Heat in 7 games but let’s take our best shot at them.

by slamtheking on Mar 6, 2012 8:35 AM EST reply actions  

I’m confused on the blowing it up..

They have major contracts expiring at the end of the year.. if a team wanted to "blow it up, they would get expiring contracts. You can’t trade kg, he is the anchor of the team. Rondo is the QB, so it makes it tough to move him. Pierce has to big of a contract for his age. Ray has a friendly team deal. No one wants just an injured JO. Bradley, Moore, JJ are on rookie deals, and won’t get you an impact player. Pietrus is getting the minimum – so why trade him. If any wants daniels or sasha I’m sure a bag of balls is enough.. Leaving you bass & dooling, not sure they will get you an impact franchise changer

by jdunn123 on Mar 6, 2012 9:04 AM EST reply actions  

if..

Any team wants pierce or ray for a playoff run, they should have to take JO also. And give up a pick.

by jdunn123 on Mar 6, 2012 9:05 AM EST up reply actions  

Why should they have to take JO too?

He’s off the cap at the end of the year anyway, and if we’re giving up Pierce we’re giving up on a run this year.

by clover on Mar 6, 2012 9:25 AM EST up reply actions  

He is taking up a roster spot of a young player, like stiemsma. I would rather have a minimum salary guy from the d league than having to hear about how Jo is hurt, or sad, or fragile, or useless. We have spent to much time talking about him. If rondo is moody and doesn’t play hard than what is JO, rondo played with a dislocated elbow.

by jdunn123 on Mar 6, 2012 10:35 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, you trade JO for completely different reasons.

JO’s value in a trade is cap relief.

PP’s value is to help a contender.

Ray can provide both.

JO doesn’t make sense to package in a deal with PP because they don’t overlap purposes. He could be packaged in a deal with Ray to someone to match salaries.

NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.

by mmmmm on Mar 6, 2012 10:58 AM EST up reply actions  

JO is cap relief? Who has 6 million that they want to spend on no body? That’s why is said include him in a ray trade.. 16 million instead of 10 off the books sounds good to a hornets team, If Jordan still had a big contract left I think he would take that off his books. And no I don’t want Diaw. It’s similar to Howard deal. If you want Howard you have to take hedo also.that’s why teams are waiting, they don’t have young talent and big expiring deals to take both. Maybe boston does but do you want to move ray, jj, Bradley, kg, 3 picks, moore for hedo if Howard leaves at the end of the year.

by jdunn123 on Mar 6, 2012 12:00 PM EST up reply actions  

"Who has 6 million that they want to spend on no body? "

First off, the remainder of his contract is far less than 6M.

Second, the idea is to trade contracts – his, with no commitment to spend anything on after this year for someone elses’ which may include commitments past this year.

Third (to answer the question) anybody who wants to reduce their salary commitments in the future by unloading a longer term contract for one that is expiring. Teams often do this. They don’t always care about what player they get – so long as the new contract is expiring.

Basically expiring deals have value because of the salary cap. That is why Ray, KG & JO are all inherently valuable to us even if we don’t trade them.

NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.

by mmmmm on Mar 6, 2012 12:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Tank!

If the Cs successfully tank, they could end up with something like the #9 pick, which currently on DX is Tyler Zeller: the Cs potential center of the future.

If the Cs fail to tank, and stay where they are, they will end up with the #16 pick, which currently on DX is Terrence Ross, a wing who can stand-still shoot but has bad handles.

If it was me, I’d give up the 3-game playoff slaughter by the Heat or Bulls, and get my center of the future.

"People don't understand, if you can't live the rest of your life off one year in the NBA, you can't live off 21." -- Keon Clark

by Eeyore III on Mar 6, 2012 9:09 AM EST reply actions  

Me too.

Doc doesn’t tank, Danny just does what’s best for the future.

by clover on Mar 6, 2012 9:25 AM EST up reply actions  

I'd say what I think of your "Celtic Pride" then...

But it’d probably get me in trouble.

So, I’m going to respectfully disagree with you, and move on.

by C'sFan on Mar 6, 2012 10:19 AM EST up reply actions  

I just picked a random source to illustrate

the difference between the quality of the pick the Cs would get (1) making the playoffs as 7th seed, versus (2) missing the playoffs. I didn’t mean to tout Zeller specifically. I just wanted to point out the vast difference, probably, between the 16th and the 9th picks in this year’s draft.

I don’t even think Zeller will be there at #9, actually.

And I also meant

"People don't understand, if you can't live the rest of your life off one year in the NBA, you can't live off 21." -- Keon Clark

by Eeyore III on Mar 6, 2012 2:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Yep, and Kwame brown was a #1.

While Ginobli was undrafted.

So… Ya, what’s your point?

Drafting is a lottery system for more than just draft position. Truth is, much homework as teams do, much as they try to trust their systems, evaluate players, its as much of a crap shoot as anything else.

That’s why you don’t tank, ever. It’s an insult to the game.

by C'sFan on Mar 6, 2012 5:15 PM EST up reply actions  

The 2007 draft - yikes!

We wanted #1. Would have been horrible to have ended up with #1 Oden. Would have been fabulous to have ended up with #2 Durant. Thank goodness we were able to deal #5 for Ray!

Gotta be lucky AND smart.

NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.

by mmmmm on Mar 6, 2012 5:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Anything that moves us closer to a championship...

Is what Ainge should do. Sometimes moving closer to a championship takes the form of a worse record. This present team is not a legit contender. If Ainge can parlay guys that are expiring for anything of value, he simply jump-starts the rebuild by a couple of months, so that going into the draft, we have an extra pick or two, or going into next season, he has an extra young player with potential.

Now, it’s already been gone over a million times that the only teams that would have any interest in Ray, PP, or Garnett are teams on the cusp of a championship, and with their salaries, and the fact that they could likely be really short term rentals for their new teams, few teams have both the desire, and the right assets (expiring huge contracts and promising young players and/or picks) to get anything done. The possibility of getting anything done by moving KG or Ray is remote in the extreme (less so with Ray).

Rondo is a great player on a very reasonable contract. Danny would have to get a monster return to move him, in my view. I think Rondo will be here for a very long time.

Of course Danny is kicking tires, as he should and must, but at the end of the day, he’s not going to do anything to marginally improve a team that can’t get by the Heat or Bulls anyway, at the expense of the future (rebuild), which begins in earnest as soon as this season ends. But if by some miracle, someone is willing to give up something of value (young player or pick), and make it work financially (throwing in huge expiring contract to make it work), which includes not bogging us down with a long contract for marginal talent, then Danny will do it.

Almost certainly, this is a what you see is what you’re going to continue to see til the end of the season scenario, unless DA does something at the margins, like trading Dooling, or some such piddling deal, that really won’t effect how the season ends.

We’re just watching what we all knew we’d be watching when we traded for KG and Ray 4 years ago, i.e. year 4 of a 3 year window. A bridge year to the rebuild, with no real expectations. A victory lap, if you will, with occasional flashblacks of greatness. Fun to watch, but by and large, mediocre basketball. I’m okay with it. We got a championship and another trip to the finals.

by Mencius on Mar 6, 2012 9:11 AM EST reply actions  

If Ainge can bring in a paint presence as a rental

this season, and everyone stays healthy, the Cs will be a difficult out for any EC team, including Miami — especially if Rondo plays triple-doubley, like he did against the Bulls a few seasons ago in their epic 7 gamer.

Add a bought out Chris Kamen to this roster, and the dynamic changes entirely. I feel he would sign with his buddy Dirk and Dallas if he gets his freedom from the Hornets, but let’s dream anyways. He’s a low post scoring big who can add at least some paint presence to this team, something they haven’t had since Shaq shredded his leg and Ainge gave away his 25 year old center for a bag of beans.

by TripleOT on Mar 6, 2012 9:18 AM EST reply actions  

Yes.

The gap is narrowing between the 3-8 seeds
Not unrealistic this team ends up 3rd or 4th seed. Then first round at home. Anything possible after that. This team is built for the playoffs.

by JPV on Mar 6, 2012 9:30 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I suspect Wyc may be bought in on your perspective as well--despite the C's barely at .500 after playing so many games against poor teams at home.

That’s the trick for Danny—whenever the team looks like it’s through is a tough time to start a rebuild, the opportunity is there only when they’re looking good.

by clover on Mar 6, 2012 9:46 AM EST up reply actions  

C's never have luck with tanking

It would probably amount to a difference of 3 measly spots if they attempt to lose all their games (which KG won’t let happen, no matter who they trade away). Might as well go all out for one final run. They can use their two picks to move up in the draft afterward.

by post-it note on Mar 6, 2012 9:47 AM EST reply actions  

Probably true.

NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.

by mmmmm on Mar 6, 2012 12:41 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd say that's true of Pierce

more so than KG. And that will also be true for the remaining two years of Pierce’s contract. A 15-16th pick at best, unfortunately.

Anyway, the Bucks and Cavs are bad enough that even an all-out tanking effort, which ideally I would prefer, probably would not be enough to sink out of the playoffs at this point.

"People don't understand, if you can't live the rest of your life off one year in the NBA, you can't live off 21." -- Keon Clark

by Eeyore III on Mar 6, 2012 2:47 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not sure Bulpett is advocating tanking.

Just that if they did not make the playoffs that it wouldn’t be so bad. Chicago won Rose in the lottery with about a 3% chance a couple of years ago and Cleveland won Irving with a small percentage of chance I believe so stranger things can happen. That said Doc, of course, is not going to tank, neither are warriors such as KG, Pierce and Allen. That, then falls into Ainge’s lap as to who he would move and for what. Removing pieces from this team could obviously push them towards the lottery. I could see him moving Ray and even Bass and then depending on who we got back, the lottery could be inevitable. If we want to make a push for the playoffs this year and hope to legitimately challenge Miami and Chicago we would need another legit big man. Not sure if Ainge can get his hands on that guy. The upcoming road trip will probably tell us a lot one way or the other.

by celty86 on Mar 6, 2012 10:02 AM EST reply actions  

yes-- these next 4-5 games will tell

if we really are coming together for a “run”. with a "one more run’ strategy, I don’t think there is much chance of getting an impact wing player… just not enough time for them behind PP and RA anyway… . With KG at center, adding another rebounder/post threat (whether a center or PF) is the only real “upgrade” i think we could make that is doable.. but not sure anything is going to enable us to beat the upper echelon teams. If we get beat 2-3 times, it is tempting to start the rebuilding process early…wait and see, i guess

by P stoff on Mar 6, 2012 10:21 AM EST up reply actions  

The poll results...

…clearly show people are answering with their hearts rather than with their heads. I too would like to see this team give it one more go but deep down I know this team does not stand a chance against the likes of Miami or Chicago. It just took a herculean effort to beat the 8th seed in the East…at home.
If the end goal is to make the playoffs then this team will get us there but that’s about it. I really don’t relish seeing another 4 or 5 game series exit by the hated Heat again.
Hopefully Danny is thinking with his head and pulls the plug.

by yakyakyak on Mar 6, 2012 11:57 AM EST reply actions  

And teams that have more head than heart.

Don’t win NBA championships.

Why should we, as a fan base, not show the same heart and loyalty we expect from players?

Fans cry about loyalty, cry about players showing heart and pride, giving it all out there for our towns, our teams. And we can’t show the same?

What does that make use, if nothing but hypocrites.

Don’t trade a single one, come hell or high water, these warriors deserve to go out swinging wearing their Celtic Green.

by C'sFan on Mar 6, 2012 1:11 PM EST up reply actions  

+1,000,001

"People don't understand, if you can't live the rest of your life off one year in the NBA, you can't live off 21." -- Keon Clark

by Eeyore III on Mar 6, 2012 2:49 PM EST up reply actions  

It would be hard to not see the Celtics in the playoffs. But, if the regular season ended today, they will be facing the Heat in the 1st round. Or, if they finished 8th, it will be the Bulls. The only chance they have against those two teams is if they lose a significant player in the playoffs. So, I wouldn’t mind if they don’t get in the playoffs and get a good position in the draft with their own pick, rather than see a painful early 1st round exit. Who knows. This might be the year they eventually get that coveted ping pong ball to fall in their favor.

"I've got a theory that if you give 100% all of the time, somehow things will work out in the end."
--- Larry Bird

by Army_of_One_Nation(Celtic's Nation) on Mar 6, 2012 6:23 PM EST reply actions  

People are thinking with their hearts and not their minds.......Did I misread the poll above or..

doesn’t it say “assuming that the Celtics CAN’T beat the Bulls or the Heat”…..based on that premise, we can’t get out of the East, let alone have even a chance at a championship………………..assuming we beat out the 6’ers and win the Atlantic, since when have we hung DIVISION BANNERS up above?

by csfansince60s on Mar 6, 2012 6:54 PM EST reply actions  

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