MIAMI, FL - MAY 30: Rajon Rondo #9 of the Boston Celtics brings the ball up court against the Miami Heat in Game Two of the Eastern Conference Finals in the 2012 NBA Playoffs on May 30, 2012 at American Airlines Arena in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images)
You could say that the Heat are up 2-0 so why would they treat Rondo any differently than they have. And it is hart to argue with the following logic which boils down to "he's probably not going to keep hitting jumpers."
Spoelstra believes in the numbers, and because the numbers say that Rondo won’t shoot the same again, it will take far more evidence of a new truth for him to abandon his current approach. Just as with the belief that earning open shots from efficient, probable areas of the court will yield the highest number of points over time, if you come into a game trying to push another team or specific player to shoot from your desired spots on the floor, one game of those shots falling doesn’t put a tactic in the wrong. If you’ll pardon the analogy, you can roll a seven as many times as you want in a row, but it doesn’t make you more likely to do so the next time you pick up the dice.
Still, as smart as Rondo is and as smart as Doc and the rest of the team are, I feel like they will be able to exploit the space that the Heat are giving Rondo to operate with. Maybe it will mean more passes and fewer shots. Or maybe Rondo will just keep taking shots and the team will adjust elsewhere (Doc talked about positioning and execution errors they could work on). Regardless, something needs to break our way to give Rondo some help and beat the Heat.