Most people tend to agree that Jeff Green is getting overpaid based on his production to date. But, as it has been pointed out on this blog by many, that deal kind of had to be made. There just weren't any other good options available. Red's Army puts it this way.
When you look at the big picture, Danny didn’t really have much choice. The Celtics had already committed their MLE to Jason Terry (remember, Doc called him first at midnight when free agency opened). They traded away any assets they had in the Courtney Lee deal and, once Ray Allen left via free agency, their only "sign-and-trade" piece went with him. League rules don’t allow for Green to be dealt in a sign-and-trade because he was out of the league last year, and the only other tradeable assets the Celtics have are Rajon Rondo and Paul Pierce (and those guys are going nowhere right now). Does that mean this will ultimately be a good contract? Only time will tell (despite some people’s demands to make a judgement now).
The way I justify it in my head is that he's really only overpaid by a 3 or 4 million. When you take into account that Rondo is underpaid by at least that much (he's worth the max and then some) and Kevin Garnett could have gotten more on the open market, we aren't doing too bad at all.
As for what Green brings to the table, here's a comparison to sink your teeth into. James Posey (on offense at least - he may have to improve some on defense to have that same impact). See this ESPN Insider story.
And while we're talking [James] Posey, that's probably a good starting point in terms of what we can expect from Green statistically in 2012-13. During the C's championship season, Posey averaged 7.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg and 1.5 apg and shot 38 percent from 3-point range in 24.6 minutes a game. According to the SCHOENE projection system by Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus, Green's numbers are expected to be very similar next season: 25 mpg, 10.1 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 1.1 apg and 35.2 percent from 3-point range. One area to watch is Green's aggressiveness on offense. Synergy Stats shows that he's been primarily a spot-up shooter and post-up player over his four-year career. A shift toward more cuts to the basket and points in transition is the next step in his development.
I'll take that. If he can master the art of the dagger 3 pointer like Posey did, I'll be even happier.