FanPost

The first signs of the "Brad Stevens Celtics".....BIG changes

There is change in the air and it sounds like this:

"Pass more before you shoot"

"Take more threes!"

Ok, Ray Allen is in Florida and Jared Sullinger is the de facto center (that means he really isn't a center), but, he's taking 3's. Why?

Our Celtics have a professional stat guy grinding the numbers all day.

Our Celtics have a college coach.

Our Celtics do not have a center.

Observations from the first two games? The Celtics are playing a "pro Butler" offense. They are making five or six passes minimum before taking a shot...they have popped a few 24 second violations doing this.

Why the extra threes?

Offense arrives and begins their "5 or 6 pass sequence." in the NBA, statistically, who will have the "most open" shot most often? The player at the three point line statistically has the "least contested shot" and Humphries underneath has the "most contested shot."

Why would Brad Stevens want some more of these low % 3 pt shots?

Is it a personnel driven decision? Part of it has to be. Our Celtics are small. Even the big guys we do have "play small." How can a scheme effectively improve the natural mismatches underneath?

All of this is guessery.

The three pointer is launched and clangs 64% of the time. 100 three pointers create 64 ten to twenty foot rebounds. These 64 "rebound opportunities" are quite different from a missed lay up. They "land/become reboundable" further away from the rim more consistently negating the opponents size advantage? (this has got to be voo doo, but, I march on into the fog).

Ex.Sully shoots a three and the Celtics "prepare to run back and defend"...the ball "clangs" and "bounces out" away from opposing bigs and in the direction of retreating Celtics...I guess.

Is the Celtics' offensive rebound percentage better on threes? Isn't this the only reason you would give a three point shot priority? Look at Sully's two threes...no opponent to be seen...not a one.He may miss the thing, but, at least it was uncontested....ok? So Sully throws up 100 uncontested threes and gets 30. Why is this good?

Is it because the Celtics have a higher rebound percentage on threes? It must be because our stat guy says it is.

In general, the Stevens Celtics are committed to "more passes" on offense which is a slower, clunkier more Butlerish/collegiate style. They are shooting more threes and their defense is a work in progress which means pray....a lot.

Mad scientist department - The basketball rebound varies based on kinetic energy transfer. a "soft" pop from twelve feet when missed, is reboundable "around the rim" and the great big correctly boxed out opposing center gets the ball more frequently than the smaller Celtic "big." A three pointer is an entirely different "energetic event." This shot slams into the "rim area" with ten times the force of the aforementioned jumper and is more likely headed further away from the rim into an area where the Celtics enjoy a greater rebound success rate. (GRSR) ...official sounding ain't it? Basketball reference has nuthin' on me.

The other effect of this tactic? The Celtics will supposedly force the defense to "open up" in response and create the environment this team needs.....passing lanes.

Our Celtics maybe small, they maybe average shooters, they may have never played together before, but, they can pass as well as any team in the NBA and our coach is going to play that passing tune all day long.

My daughter is still so ripped about the "trade" she won't talk about the Celtics and my grand daughter can't even talk yet so you are all I have.

OK, You have a better rationale? Please post it because I grew up watching Red Auerbach teams and this stat stuff is too new for me.

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