Oddsmakers set Boston Celtics over/under win total at 27.5

Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Purely for discussion purposes only.

I'm not a gambler, especially when it comes to something as emotional as my own team.  So I don't really know a lot about it and frankly I don't care to.  That said, I'm happy to take this information as a data point and use it for discussion purposes.

Odds makers have projected an over/under win total for the Celtics at 27.5 wins.  So I guess in theory if you think the Celtics will win 28 or more games, you'd bet "the over."  And vice versa for "the under."

I've already gone on record to predict that the Celtics will win 30 games.  Some fans are more optimistic than I and have the Celtics challenging for a playoff spot (which should put them around .500 or roughly 41 wins).  On the other side of the spectrum I noticed that Yahoo! Sports' Kelly Dwyer (who'd opinion I respect) predicts a mere 16 wins from the Celtics.

Even if you could accurately gauge just how good a team is at the start of the season, there are so many unpredictable variables that will factor into the actual results.  When will Rondo return?  Will Danny make more trades during the season?  How long will Brad Stevens need to adjust to the NBA?  Who will get hurt and miss time?  Who will develop quickly and who will regress?

Then there's the natural unpredictability of the season.  Freak shots fall and win games for teams.  Bad officiating can swing a game (or lots of games if you believe Tommy).  Sometimes good teams have bad nights and lose to teams that simply aren't as good on most nights.  So I've heard it said that there's probably about a 5 game swing in terms of records based on randomness.

So when it boils down to it, I'm not too surprised at a 27.5 over/under line.  I'd probably go over based on my optimism but even if I was a betting man I don't know if I'd risk money on it because I wouldn't be surprised to see them hit the under.

What do you think?  What's your best guess at the team's record?

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