An Assessment - part 5

In this edition, we'll cover the Guards and tomorrow wrap up with what does any or all of this mean for the Celtics.

Shooting Guards - criteria = .91 or better offensive ppp/ .88 or better defensive ppp

Derek Fisher .98/ .6 yeah, I couldn't believe this one either. Only 575 minutes played though.

Khris Middleton 1/ .77 small sample alert! 475 minutes but many think he will be big one day.

Lou Williams .96/ .78

Dwayne Wade .98/ .8

Jamal Crawford .98/ .82

Wes Matthews 1.02/ .82

Manu Ginobli .92/ .82 unrestricted free agent. Shocker if he does not return to the Spurs.

Klay Thompson .95/ .83

Jarrett Jack .92/ .84 unrestricted free agent. Danny was rumored to have a lot of interest last year.

Wayne Ellington 1.02/ .84 - 3.1M qualifying offer

Jodie Meeks .97/ .84 - 1.6M team option

Nick Young .96/ .84

Kobe Bryant .98/ .85 age 35, torn Achilles, and will make 30.5M next year

Kevin Martin 1.08 .85 unrestricted free agent. 12.4M this year

Iman Shumpert .92/ .85

Jason Terry .99/ .86

Marco Bellinelli .92/ .86 unrestricted free agent

Ramon Sessions .93/ .86

Fransisco Garcia 1.07/ .86 - 6.4M team option. Turned his game around after trade out of Sacramento

Danny Green 1.06/ .87

Courtney Lee .94/ .87 not a good sign when the JET has a better defensive number

Joe Johnson .93/ .87 will make 21.5M next year. I don't get it

Devin Harris .95/ .87 unrestricted free agent

DeMar DeRozan .94/ .88

Ray Allen 1.03/ .88

John Jenkins 1.01/ .88

Bradley Beal .91/ .88

Top 100 - Fisher 96 offensive rank/ 2 defensive rank - Middleton 74/ 38 - Wade 96/ 66 - Jamal Crawford 96/ 89 - Wes Matthews 40/ 89

Wes Matthews is probably the best all around choice of this group, but it is doubtful Portland lets him go. If we are to upgrade at the SG, Ellington could be the ticket. Better numbers than Terry or Lee on both sides. His qualifying offer is about the same size as the MLE and about half or less what Jack is likely to get.

And the Point Guards - criteria = .87/ .87

Toney Douglas .88/ .76 - 3.1M qualifying offer

Jose Calderon 1.07/ .81 unrestricted free agent. Rumored to be looking for 6-8M

Kyle Lowry .89/ .81 - 6.2M non-guaranteed

Mike Conley .92/ .83 improves by the game. Real bargain at 8.2M

Deron Williams .97/ .83

George Hill .98/ .83

Chris Paul 1.02/ .83 unrestricted free agent. Will get at least 18.5M next year

Russell Westbrook .92/ .84

Patrick Mills 1.01/ .84 - 1.1M player option. After this season with the Spurs, he might test the waters

C.J. Watson .96/ .85 - 1.1M player option. I think he opts out

Tony Parker 1.02/ .85 way underrated

Kyrie Irving .95/ .85

Leandro Barbosa .91/ .85 we all know this story

Jerryd Bayless .87/ .86 - 3.1M player option. Like Bradley, they figured out he is not a PG

Damian Lillard .93/ .87 rookie of the year. Led the league in minutes - 3166

Mario Chalmers .93/ .87 He thinks he is a top 10 PG

Steve Nash .94/ .87

Top 100 - Jose Calderon 18 offensive rank/ 77 defensive rank

If you are convinced that Terrence Williams will blossom into the role of PG, then there is nothing to talk about here. Otherwise, I was kind of hoping the Celtics could do something to get Calderon when Rondo got hurt, but his contract was just too expensive. Though unlikely, a sign and trade packaged with Drummond would be ideal. Plus the competition/ motivation might make Rondo bring his "A" game every night.

Douglas, Mills, or Watson are intriguing as backups that could probably be done on the cheap.

Where do our own guys fit? Rondo is .79 on offense while Williams clocked in at .8 ppp. This is why neither made this list although both were tied at .77 on defense. For comparison, that would rank them second among PGs and 38th among all players on defense. The same for Bradley - .8/ .73

So now that we have covered all of the various positions, a little perspective is in order. In his article the other day about Courtney Lee, Chris Forsberg noted that his defensive points per play ranked him in the 54th percentile. So what gives? That means he is barely above the middle of the pack. While true, very few Guards guard very well. And the percentile he cites is for all players in all positions.

It might be easier to picture if we talked in quintiles; up to .79 defense = superior, up to .89 = above average, up to .99 = average, up to 1.09 = below average, 1.1 and above is poor. These are not exact, but will work for illustration. In this data set where you had to have played 20 games/ 200 minutes, only 51 players out of 396 were superior. And only 13 of the 51 were guards. So one can be a good defender for his position and still not be a great defender in general. Context is important.

What I tried to show is that there are players that are above average defenders for their position and are above average scorers as well. Hopefully I did not confuse the issue.

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