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Why I think the Celtics will be better this year than last

First off, this is the first Basketball-y thing I’ve ever written, so please bear with me here. Now on to the Celtics!

There are a couple of positives for Boston going into the season. I know that the Celtics are still a flawed team, but thus far it seems that they have improved on multiple issues they dealt with last year.

3-Point Shooting

Before the season started, Brad Stevens was praised as an analytics minded coach. However, the Celtics were among the leaders in Midrange Field Goal Attempts – 6th to be exact. It was unclear if Stevens wasn’t a fan of threes, or if this was due to personnel. His insistence on having Jared Sullinger shoot threes as the season progressed, even though he struggled mightily was a sign for things to come. Not only did Sullinger improve his range, but other players like Avery Bradley and Jeff Green were pressing to increase theirs.

This preseason, their effort seems to come to fruition. The jumped from 17th to 6th in 3FGA and also improved their efficiency mightily. During the preseason, they are shooting 35%, up from 33% last year and are 9th in makes.

They also added a very talented scorer and Three Point shooter in Marcus Thornton, shooting 38% for his career. Players like Sully and Bradley aren’t only more efficient, but their shots don’t fall short or hit nothing but the backboard as often.

Passing

Last season, the offense was stagnant quite often. Ball movement was lacking and decision making was poor frequently. In the preseason the ball most certainly moved better. A lot. They made a huge jump from 18th to 4th in AST/FG. They assisted on 57% of their field goals in 2013-2014, this jumped to 66% in the early showings.

I could not mention passing without mentioning Rajon Rondo. For all the talk about him needing all-stars to be successful, he would have been second in assists per game if he had qualified; only trailing Chris Paul. He created 23 points per game, only trailing Chris Paul. Except for Kemba Walker, nobody passed more often than Rajon. I think that Rondo can integrate himself successfully, although it is telling that he can’t crack the top 5 in hockey assists, be it due to him overdribbling or the rest of the team’s lack of awareness in that area.

With or without the Big 3, there is no player in the NBA that is a more willing and able passer than him. You could point to Chris Paul, but between the two, the player with the more talented teammates tends to lead the league every year.

Pace and Efficiency

It is noticeable that the Celtics are pushing the pace more than last year. They were a bottom half team last year, but catapulted themselves into the top 6 which is a great sign.

Right about now it is probably worth noting that most teams they played in the preseason are considered bad teams and only one is a lock to even make the playoffs. Despite all that, having the 2nd best defensive rating is nothing to sneer at.

They upgraded their personnel on this side mightily, adding Marcus Smart and Tyler Zeller. The only noteworthy defender they lost was Kris Humphries, who wasn’t all that helpful since he was often forced to play out of position.

It’s not all rosy though, since the Celtics haven’t managed to become a top 10 offensive team regardless of their opponents’ lack of defensive talent.

Conclusion

The roster is still an incoherent mess and the talent level is still shaky at most positions. A lot will hinge on the preseason numbers being somewhat sustainable and the players’ progression not being a mirage. At this point, it looks as if there is a big chance that Rondo will be ready to go from the get-go, which is important to tip off this season properly. I do expect early struggles, since the schedule is brutal and the offense will certainly change some with Rondo having to integrate.

As for my prediction; I think the Celtics will win between 30 and 35 games, although I have higher (probably irrational) hopes.

Thanks for reading!

All stats were compiled from RealGM, NBA.com, BasketballReference and/or stolen from John Schuhmann’s Twitter account.

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