Next summer, if Rajon Rondo hits unrestricted free agency and is willing to re-sign with the Celtics, but only for a 5 year maximum deal (30% of the salary cap annually), should he be re-signed?
To answer this question, I think it's worthwhile to consider the production and cost of a starting-caliber point guard in the NBA, to speculate about how Rondo's production might wax or wane over the course of a 5 year deal starting in 2015, and finally to ponder what the opportunity cost of signing or not signing Rondo might be.
What can a team expect to get from a "starting caliber" point guard?
Nailing down a definition of "starting caliber" could take up an entire article; so could a discussion of which statistics ought to be used to measure the production of such players. In this case I'll take a look at all the point guards who started at least 20 games this past season, and consider how much money they are slated to make this upcoming season, as well as how they produced in a handful of advanced statistical categories.
(See the Google Doc sheet here).
2013-2014 Averages for "Starting-caliber" point guards:
30.5 Assist percentage
2.0 Steal percentage
15.84 Points per 36 minutes
.534 True Shooting percentage
16.37 Player Efficiency Rating
5.05 Wins Produced
.109 Win Shares per 48 minutes
$7.07 million salary
The "most average of the average" -- the representative example of the group?
35.1 AST%...1.8 STL%...18.5 PTS/36... .541 TS%...17.1 PER...5.2 WP... .098 WS/48...$8 million.
Here are Rondo's career averages in these categories:
41.3 AST%...3.0 STL%...12.1 PTS/36... .510 TS%...17.1 PER...5.63 WP... .130 WS/48
All of those numbers, it must be noted, are brought down significantly by Rondo's relatively unremarkable rookie season and his abysmal play this past season as he recovered from a knee injury. Still, we don't know yet just what Rondo's game is going to look like post-injury; not in the long run.
Based on his career so far, it's possible to say that Rondo is well above average as a passer and as a ball-hawk. He also rebounds very well for a guard -- even coming back from a knee injury last season, he was third among point guards in Total Rebound Percentage with 9.3%, trailing only Russell Westbrook and Michael Carter-Williams, two much larger and more explosive players. All of this helps him do very well in global efficiency and production stats, despite the fact that his scoring and shooting efficiency are significantly below average for his position. Even ignoring this past season, Rondo has never reached 55% True Shooting in a season, owing largely to his terrible free throw shooting.
Probably Rondo's best overall seasons were in 08-09 and 09-10, when he finished just shy of 10 Wins Produced in consecutive years. Despite his flaws, that version of Rondo is unequivocably worth paying 30% of the cap. Anytime you can secure a player capable of garnering 10 WP or more in any given season, you should do it, irrespective of cost. But is that the Rondo you're getting in his age 30 through age 34 seasons? Or will he hew closer to his numbers of the past three seasons? Was that Rondo in large part a product of playing with a couple of great wing scorers and a demon of a defensive big man (who was also a pick and pop nightmare for opponents)? Durability is another factor to consider. Here are Rondo's games played for each season of his career: 78, 77, 80, 81, 68, 65*, 38, 30. That's not a terribly encouraging trend.
(*Rondo played 53 games in the lockout season, which equates to 65 games in a typical season)
How might we expect Rondo to age? How many top level seasons does he have left in him? It's impossible to say for sure. Taking a look at a listing of point guards who produced similarly to Rondo through age 29 -- lots of Win Shares, high steals and assists, mediocre or worse shooting efficiency -- there is a mixed bag of results that provides room for optimism, albeit somewhat limited.
Will Rondo fizzle out not far past his 30th birthday, like Isiah Thomas, Baron Davis, Kenny Anderson, and Terrell Brandon? Or will he have some of his best seasons in his early 30s before transitioning into a useful role player, like Rod Strickland and Tim Hardaway? Perhaps the highest hope would be that he follows the trajectory of Jason Kidd, continuing to play at a high level well into his mid-30s, playing a pivotal role on a contender even late in his career.
To extend his career, it is likely that Rondo will have to make tremendous steps at the free throw line and from beyond the arc, as Jason Kidd did. Kidd showed progress as an outside shooter and from the line well before age 29, while Rondo has shown very little, but perhaps Rondo can still get there.
Ultimately, it comes down to whether or not you think Rondo has provided enough reason for optimism about the next 5 years of his career. If you find yourself feeling more dubious, then it is necessary to consider the opportunity cost of signing or not signing Rondo. To wit, what do the Celtics have to lose either way?
It would be a serious oversimplification to say that if the Celtics wanted to, it would be easy for them to replace Rondo with even an "average" starting player -- i.e. somebody on par with Jeff Teague -- for a salary around $7 million (or 11% of the cap). An "average starter" is not the replacement level in the NBA. The only sort of player that is always available for the price a team wants to pay is a D-League player (e.g. Kendall Marshall, who lingered near the bottom of most of the statistical categories noted above).
Still, such players are available for trade, if you are willing to give up assets. Those players are generally younger, have fewer injury issues, and cost far less than 30% of the cap. The Celtics could probably trade Rondo now for such a player, and get additional assets in return. A player closer to average would come without the assist totals and the playoff pedigree, but would almost certainly space the floor better, and overall provide more individual scoring, which the Celtics lack desperately at the moment. There's also the chance that, like Goran Dragic or Kyle Lowry this season, a previously "average" sort of player breaks out, and suddenly is a bargain.
Nevertheless, exchanging Rondo for a merely average starting point guard isn't getting the Celtics much closer to a title anytime soon; the Celtics probably wouldn't be able to spend the money saved on any players worth getting excited over, because none would be looking to sign on with a team devoid of household names.
That said, the Celtics just used their top lottery pick on a point guard who may be much better than average, at least after he develops for a year or two. Marcus Smart is on a rookie contract, and will be cost controlled for the next four years; after that, the amount he can make will be capped well below what Rondo would be making in the final years of a maximum five year deal. Rondo is currently standing in the way of Smart's development, and keeping both of them long term makes little sense, unless the team thinks Smart can play off-guard alongside Rondo, and Avery Bradley is traded.
The situation with Smart, along with legitimate questions about how well Rondo is likely to age as he enters his thirties, make the proposition of signing Rondo to a big time deal a matter of either going all-out to make the jump to elite status within the next year or two, or else choosing to rebuild slowly, targeting a younger collection of stars a little way down the road. There's a good chance Rondo has only a couple of elite seasons left in him, and after that he may or may not be able to keep going as a quality role player.
Can the Celtics lure a major free agent or two to Boston next summer to join up with Rondo? Marc Gasol and LaMarcus Aldridge figure to be the biggest names on the market; Kevin Love might be free to sign wherever he pleases, too. Would the team be able to be very competitive right away, even if it did add one of those players? Aldridge and Gasol are probably in more attractive situations already, and Love will probably be traded to a superior situation before the deadline in February. Adding Roy Hibbert, Rudy Gay, or Deandre Jordan instead is not going to cut it.
Hopefully the Celtics have a sense of how realistic it is to place the team's hopes on free agency, when -- it has to be noted -- the Celtics have never built a team primarily by luring big-name players in free agency. If the Celtics decide to wait out the year with Rondo and then strike out in free agency, at best they'll be forced to re-sign him to big money and long years with no clear plan for becoming competitive before Rondo is in full decline. At worst, they'll be left with nothing but cap space, with nobody to use it on except for second or third tier free agents who would need to be seriously overpaid to come here. Meanwhile, Rondo will be playing for a ring elsewhere.
A package of young players and picks might not be exciting, but it would be better than either of those options.