FanPost

Valuing Avery Bradley - From Counting the Baskets

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via www.boston.com

( I just found that picture funny)

Valuing Avery Bradley

I always like to toss in links to Andrew Johnson's Counting the Baskets Website. He's a Celtics fan and I believe he does a very good job from an analytic viewpoint concerning many things directly about the team.

His latest is regarding the Avery Bradley signing and and has some interesting comments abut Bradley's pluses & minuses, injury history included, along with the usual slew of charts and statistical references he always provides.

Will it convince naysayers it was a proper signing money wise? Probably not but it provides cogent arguments for what is being paid for (future performance not past) and some expectations of where and what Bradley can improve on to make him worth the $$$ doled out.

I'll quote the start of the article and leave the rest for people to mull over.

My working theory on Danny Ainge right now is that he over values 'his guys,' and has what behaviorial economists sometimes call this 'pride of ownership' or ownership bias. A tendency where we over value something either because it is 'ours' or because we feel we had a part in developing it.

That explains on the one hand why Ainge is a good trader. Even though he is always looking for a deal, he rarely takes something unless he gets a quality return. It also explains why he tends to give what are arguably above market deals for guys like Jeff Green and Avery Bradley.

In short I am not a big fan of the deal the Celtics struck with Bradley, though I don't think by any measure it's a team killer or poison contract. It is just placing a bit too much value on Bradley as he stands now.

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