1. It's well known it's between Miami and Cleveland
2. He's stated in the past he'd be open to returning some day
3. Even after going to Miami, he has kept his home base in Ohio
4. Cleveland would not make the three way trade unless they thought they had a good chance to sign him
5. Lebron reportedly reached out to two vet free agents if they would go to Cleveland with him
7. Lebron is very conscious of his public image and putting the Cavalier fans through another demi-"The Decision" would just reopen old wounds and make any future return even more unlikely. He met with the Cavs the other day.
8. Lebron has been on record saying the Cavs are an intriguing place to go since they have so many young prospects.
9. The Cavs have the firepower to sign Lebron, then swing a trade for Love and sign Ray/Mike in either sign and trades and/or with their MLE. They would instantly be the #1 favorite with Kyrie, Love, Lebron and at least one of Wiggins, Varajao and Waiters still left.
10. The Heat are a sinking ship. Lebron is not an idiot. He knows Wade is heavy on the decline and Bosh has plateaued. Even if those two stayed the same as last year and didn't decline at all, they don't have the resources to make the team maintain how good they were last year (let alone get better) unless all three take significant pay cuts, which reports state all three refuse to do.