Does "tanking" really work as a strategy? (based on player's win shares)
Out of 185 top 5 picks since 1978 there have been 5 players that have helped their respective teams that they played for their entire career win championships. I looked at the teams that won less than 30 games the previous season before landing their player.
Michael Jordan
David Robinson
Hakeem Olajuwon
Dwyane Wade
Isiah Thomas
So the odds of building a championship team from drafting in the top 5 by tanking is 2.7%.
That is not a strategy. If you think it is, then will you let me borrow 100,000 dollars so that I can tell you that you have a 2.7% chance of turning it into a million dollars?
Losing seasons are not fun.
There is a premise for tanking. You tank in order to go after the really high picks. Therefore I chose picks #6-30 as the non tanking ways of improving a team. I just can't see a team "giving up" on an entire season and be happy with any pick outside the top 5.
From 1985 until present (lottery era), there have been 695 draft picks from #6 to #30. (not tanking)
Out of those 695 draft picks, there have been 15 championships won for their respective teams.
Rajon Rondo and Paul Pierce: 1 championship
Tony Parker (along with Diaw, Tiago Splitter and Leonard later picked): 4 championships (counted for Parker)
Joe Dumars and John Sally: 2 championships (counted for Dumars)
Andrew Bynum: 2 championships
Horace Grant: 3 championships (look at the amount of win shares he had during that 3 year run)
A.C. Green: 2 championships
Derek Fisher: 1 championship (only 1/3 championships did he have enough WS that season to contribute to that specific championship)
That is a 0.0216 championships per draft pick #6-30.
From 1985 until the present, there have been 150 draft picks between 1 and 5.
Out of those 150 picks, there have been 4 championships won as a direct relationship to "tanking", or whatever you want to call it for the same team that drafted them.
That is a 0.0267 championships per draft pick from 1 to 5.
Now, Duncan does NOT fall under that category. (This is the only way that tanking will and can work in the future if the NBA does nothing about it)
You can convince those very talented players to purposely lose, or, have the luck of injuries (which by the way, planning injuries, is not a strategy, so in that sense, it is really not tanking, but sheer luck)
The year before the Spurs got Duncan, they got a horrible rash of injuries (again, not a strategy). They lost Robinson, Chuck Person, Charles Smith, and Sean Elliott for significant playing time for that season.
Note: I could have overlooked something, so feel free to add to this.
Here are some notable players from that list.
LeBron James: Left town.
Allen Iverson: zero championships
Carmelo Anthony: zero championships for Denver
Dwyane Wade: Won 3 championships.
Shaquille O’Neal: zero championships
David Robinson: 1 championship
Patrick Ewing: zero championships
Derrick Rose: zero championships
Chris Webber: zero championships
Vince Carter: zero championships
Stephon Marbury: zero championships
Chris Bosh: zero championships
Kevin Love: zero championships for Minnesota
Yao Ming: zero championships
Ray Allen: zero championships
Kevin Garnett: zero championships
Chris Paul: zero championships for the New Orleans Hornets
Dwight Howard: zero championships
Here are some really good teams that did NOT have ANY top 5 picks in their top Win Shares players:
The point being; is that players later on in the draft can form really good teams, AND, they are a crucial part to championship teams that DO HAVE a player picked between #1-5 in the draft.
This entire notion of simply having a #1-5 pick on a team to win championships is silly. You need a lot more than that.
1982-83 San Antonio Spurs
1981-82 Seattle SuperSonics
1987-88 Denver Nuggets
1984-85 Denver Nuggets
1981-82 Boston Celtics
1980-81 Boston Celtics
1979-80 Boston Celtics
1989-90 Portland Trail Blazers
1987-88 Portland Trail Blazers
1988-89 Utah Jazz
1989-90 Utah Jazz
1990-91 Utah Jazz
1991-92 Utah Jazz
1993-94 Utah Jazz
1994-95 Utah Jazz
1995-96 Utah Jazz
1996-97 Utah Jazz
1997-98 Utah Jazz
1998-99 Utah Jazz
1999-00 Utah Jazz
2001-02 Boston Celtics
2000-01 Dallas Mavericks
2001-02 Dallas Mavericks
2004-05 Dallas Mavericks
2005-06 Dallas Mavericks
2006-07 Dallas Mavericks
1999-00 Indiana Pacers
2003-04 Indiana Pacers
1988-89 Phoenix Suns
1989-90 Phoenix Suns
1990-91 Phoenix Suns
1991-92 Phoenix Suns
2004-05 Phoenix Suns
2005-06 Phoenix Suns
2006-07 Phoenix Suns
2007-08 Phoenix Suns
1995-96 Los Angeles Lakers
2011-12 Indiana Pacers
2012-13 Indiana Pacers
2013-14 Indiana Pacers
1997-98 Indiana Pacers
1998-99 Indiana Pacers
2002-03 Dallas Mavericks
How do you explain those teams with good seasons without a top 5 pick with relevance of win shares?