FanPost

'Controlled effort' is the key

After the lethargic performance against the Nets last night, my Twitter feed filled up with musings about the relationship between effort and wins for this Celtics team. It is apparent that this Celtics squad does not have the talent to just turn up and win games as the Warriors seemingly can, and the ‘on-again off-again’ effort which they bring is therefore incredibly frustrating. Jared Sullinger talked about the lack of energy post-game:

"We just weren’t as connected. We weren’t as physical as normal. I thought we were kind of lazy and we didn’t share the ball offensively like we normally do. We weren’t popping around

MassLive: Loss to Nets a disappointment

I then decided to look into the box scores of each game this season, looking particularly at Field Goals Attempted (FGA), Assists (AST) and Steals (STL). I chose these 3 because they provide us with a rudimentary view of the pace of the game (FGA), the amount of ball movement by the Celtics (AST) and defensive hustle (STL). Looking at the win loss splits of these 3 stats makes for interesting reading, as the differences are large.

Wins - Losses (stats are per-game averages)

FGA = +4.2 AST = +7.2 STL = +2.1

Judging by these stats, the answer is obviously to provide more energy, increase the pace of the game and good things will happen for Boston. To be fair, they are ranked 5th in pace at 97.8. I then looked back at the games which we have lost this season, and remembered that a lot of the games had a very slow pace not because of the players and their effort but because of the referees. Looking again at the splits between wins and losses, the Celtics committed nearly 5 more fouls per game during losses than in wins. Opponents also committed 2 more fouls per game in losses than in wins. In 3 losses to Dallas, Toronto and Indiana, 185 fouls were called on both teams. In 3 wins over Atlanta, Milwaukee and Brooklyn, there were only 90.

The question therefore is why do the Celtics foul more in losses than in wins? Frustration is probably a part of it, as players start to get wound up when they’re losing and perhaps take it out on the other team. Also, the Celtics does have a very physical defence: Crowder, Bradley and Smart are all in-your-face ball hawks who provide stellar defence but who also get penalised by the referees when they step over the line. Of course, Tommy Heinsohn would tell you that it’s just the refs making bad calls, and that referees are biased against us because we have no stars and/or they just all hate the Celts.

The answer therefore is balance. Play high energy basketball moving the ball and pushing the pace, but being calm and smart on the defensive end to limit fouls but also get those steals. If the C’s can stay on the referees’ good side, perhaps they can make the legitimate playoff push that Beantown has been hoping for.

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