I was curious to see how the Celtics rotation players performed last year. Using info from Basketball Reference I put together the following chart:
Player |
Games |
MP |
Min. Game |
WS/48 |
Win Share |
2428 |
31.5 |
0.049 |
2.48 |
||
2260 |
27.6 |
0.054 |
2.54 |
||
1979 |
26.4 |
0.124 |
5.11 |
||
1808 |
27.0 |
0.077 |
2.90 |
||
1731 |
21.1 |
0.179 |
6.46 |
||
1726 |
25.8 |
0.169 |
6.08 |
||
1647 |
20.1 |
0.116 |
3.98 |
||
1566 |
27.0 |
0.123 |
4.01 |
||
1423 |
22.2 |
0.120 |
3.56 |
||
1230 |
16.4 |
0.135 |
3.46 |
||
904 |
18.4 |
0.168 |
3.16 |
||
Total |
18702 |
0.112 |
43.74 |
All of the data is from the 2014/15 season. This is not prediction or a forecast for the 2016 season.
If a player (Thomas, Crowder, and Jerebko) played for multiple teams I used their season totals.
I consider all of these players to be proven NBA rotation players or starters. I defined a rotation player as having been used more than a 1000 minutes in a season. By this definition Young, Jones, and the rookies – Rozier, Hunter, and Mickey are not included.
The 18,702 minutes played represent about 95% of a full season (82 * 48 *5).
The overriding theme I see when I read the chart is the Celtics have a high floor, but a low ceiling for 2015/16.
The Celtics have a number of good players. They have eight rotation players that average between .116 and .179 WS/48. The do not have any very good players – none one on the team played more than 2000 minutes and had a win share above .175 WS/48. In fact only two players even played more than more than 2000 minutes – Bradley and Turner and they had the lowest WS/48 among the rotation players with .049 and .054 respectively.
Tyler Zeller led the group with 6.46 win shares in 2015. Tyler had a nice season but nobody is expecting him to be the type of player to carry a franchise. Tyler is a very good complementary piece but should he get injured there is a diverse group of bigs that could keep the drop off from being precipitous.
The honor of the most dispensable player on the Celtics goes to Isaiah Thomas. His lofty .185 WS/48 (while he was a Celtic) would need to be compensated by unproven players or Bradley, Turner or Smart. Thomas’ absence would be the hardest felt on the team.
Couple other ways at looking at the rotation. All the guards/ball handlers with the exception of Thomas performed well below the NBA WS/48 average of .100. Better ball handlers/wing shooters is the fastest way to bring the floor up further.
Two players are Free Agents in 2016, Turner and Lee.
Two players are Restricted Free Agents in 2016, Zeller and Sullinger.
Two players are under team options in 2016, Johnson and Jerebko.
Olynk and Smart are playing under rookie contracts.
Bradley, Thomas and Crowder are under contract beyond 2016.
All 11 players were healthy and played in their team’s final game of the season.
All 11 player’s final game of the season was in the playoffs. One player walked off an NBA champion – welcome David Lee.