FanPost

Title town: the road travels through Sacrifice and Trust

How do the Celtics get back on top? Just like they have done countless times. Winning the offseason with masterful trades with lopsided proportions. This time the story might begin with Demarcus Cousins.

Unlikely to stay, Demarcus Cousins looks to flee Sacramento once his current contract expires.

This possible development has been the opportunity the Celtics' brass have been seeking. A Hall of Fame talent usually doesn't enter the trade market this early in a career. And the situation the Kings have found themselves compares similarly to the Timberwolves and Kevin Garnett. As neither player could carry their teams into title contention, many expect the Kings to trade Cousins in a desperate efforts to recover talent. By examining the 2007 summer trade for Garnett that returned winning basketball to Boston, we gain insight into the structure of a possible trade for Cousins.

Garnett for Jefferson, Ratliff, Gerald Green, Gomes, Telfair, and two first round picks (Foye and Brewer) and some cash.

Thoughts: We gave up blooming talent and potential franchise cornerstone in Al Jefferson. He was the backbone of the deal; the talent for talent. An expiring contract, Ratliff was the money. Green was the wild card capable of being a perennial 20 point scorer filled with potential. Gomes was a young swing that played like a veteran role player. Telfair was a throw-in and the first round picks were Randy Foye and Corey Brewer (both picked 7th).

The Celtics definitively have the talent to sway a trade for Cousins. Namely, the all the assets from the Nets' trade, Rondo trade, and our tank job.

This is where the similarities diverge. Now, the circumstances come into play, like how Cousins is disgruntled with the management. This has obviously damaged Demarcus' reputation and forced the trade market to become skeptical towards willingly giving up top talent. This is why the Bucks, Lakers, Nuggets and others haven't made a success move and are unlikely in the future.

Luckily, the damaged goods label greatly benefits the Celtics, the only recent team willing to put up with Cousins. It provides the leverage they lacked in the Garnett trade. And even though it doesn't change the necessary talent required to acquire Cousins, it shifts dictating the terms to the Celtics because the Kings are becoming more and more desperate to get compensation equal to the massive talent of Demarcus Cousins.

Now, the Celtics face deciding what pieces to keep and send if they proceed in the trade talks. It breaks down to Danny Ainge's main goal: Getting the best return on the assets for the best future of the team. While that last part is very controversial when discussing a Cousins trade, let's ignore that and assume he is the best option. The trade offer must do two things. First, don't sell the whole farm. Second, who is going to be more impactful in the future considering the new price tags (as most players will be getting a big pay raise: Bradley, Smart, Olynyk and Thomas etc). The former is obvious but the latter is more important: securing the success in the future is the most likely route to winning Banner 18.

The assets and talent most frequently talked about in the proposed trade have been comprised of Smart, Bradley, or Crowder with Johnson, Rozier, and the Nets' picks. All of these trade proposals share differences in opinion about who should remain and who should go. In my opinion, trying to determine which backbone talent to trade is about who fits into the Celtics’ future the best. Although it is easier to speculate who is the better fit next to Cousins, the surrounding players should be more likely determined by their future financial security to the team.

Contracts that control talent are more valuable keeping. So the security Crowder’s and Brown’s contracts prevent them from entering initial trade talks (contracts extend past 2018 summer). And controlling their Bird rights will allow us to exceed the salary cap once Cousins and others are resigned, ultimately giving the Celtics more flexibility and potential at the same time. Olynyk, a restricted free agent this summer, would be a good piece for an in-season trade. But I don’t think the Celtics will make the trade during this season because Cousins’ trade value last minute, probably the same time as the Garnett trade (when management gets desperate), will be lowest. Now, Cousins’ trade value isn’t exactly the lowest because the following trade deadline might be lower, but it’s the safest time for the Celtics as they need to Cousins’ Bird Rights to have the greatest possible opportunity for him to re-sign for the max. If they waited for the following trade deadline, there might not be an opportunity to retain the unrestricted free agent’s service.

Back to financial security, it comes down to Smart, Bradley, and Thomas. All of which have their contracts up after next seasons, the summer of 2018, same as Cousins. The price tags for these players are going to jump incredibly high, probably too high for all three to remain and put on the team into the top echelon of contenders. Of the three, Thomas is the most talented and will command the most money. Smart will be the cheapest due to his poor statistic but still somewhat pricey (wouldn’t bet surprised by $15 annually). And Bradley has become the backbone two-way player for Brad Stevens (though he won’t get the max it will come at a high cost).

The fact we can’t keep all three and get Cousins means that we need to include one or more of these players into the deal. Together, Bradley and Smart maybe reach the value of Thomas and would be both need to be the backbones of the deal. I take issue with parting with two of our best defenders. It seems counterproductive to eliminate our defensive advantages especially when Bradley and Smart tend to cover up a lot of Thomas’ defensive liabilities. And knowing the old adage "Defense wins Championships". It seems the odd man out becomes Thomas. The current superstar of the Boston Celtics, the same Thomas that Danny Ainge told the first night in town that he was going to be a Celtics Legend.

Trying to rationalize trading Thomas outside this analysis doesn’t make any sense as he is the best player. It seems unprecedented; it would be like trading greats like Cowens, Havlicek, McHale, Pierce or Jones. But there is actually a precedent that was set by the late Red Auerbach. The trade for Bill Russell was the first time he traded the team’s best player, Ed Macauley, a perennial all-star, averaging over 20 points per game. The sacrifice led to a dynasty of 11 Championships unlikely to be ever matched. The second time he traded the best player was in 1979. The recently acquired Bob McAdoo was once a league MVP and offensive beast, averaging 25+ points a game. He was traded to the Pistons for M.L. Carr and the 1980 draft pick that would ultimately net the Celtics Parish and McHale. These sacrifices were definitely met with anger and sorrow, but the trust placed in Auerbach by Brown and past owners ultimately fostered multiple championships.

Macauley and McAdoo have one thing in common with Thomas. They were offensively dominant but were not the two-way stars that deliver teams champions. This in no way guarantees another successful trade; however, taking the chance to capitalize on a two-way talent is hard to pass up.

Overall, the trade for Demarcus Cousins should be highlighted by including Isaiah Thomas as compensation. His inclusion into the trade would also allow the Celtics to remove players they are not ready to give up, namely Bradley, Brown, Crowder and Smart. Also, the presence of star talent in the deal makes it harder for the Kings to ask for more draft picks, though would be fair to add a Nets’ 2017 first rounder.

It seems unlikely but who knows, history tends to repeat itself, and a lot can happen in the NBA. And to the immortal words of Kevin Garnett "Anything is Possible".

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