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Celtics 2017 Free Agency Preview

The 2016 free agency period has not yet concluded, but it might not be too early to look towards 2017. The Celtics might not have landed Kevin Durant, but Danny Ainge still managed to produce some fireworks in the signing of Al Horford. Adding Horford and talented but flawed prospects in Jaylen Brown and Guerschon Yabusele will make the Celtics better in the present and set them up for the future, but these additions don't present a clear path to becoming a true title contender in the near future. There is still chatter suggesting the Celtics might not be done this offseason, but if past rumblings are any indication, the Celtics will enter the regular season with a roster essentially the same as it is now, and thus we look forward to 2017 as the next big opportunity to land a franchise-altering talent.

The 2017 free agent class is loaded with superstar talent, and the (maybe?) near miss Durant and the signing of Horford have provided hope that the Celtics have a real shot at said star talent. With the cap projections coming in notably lower than originally anticipated, teams will have a harder time manufacturing the necessary space to fit a max-level contract into their payroll. This is good news for the Celtics, as this change might be able to thin out the competition for top free agents. The Celtics will have to make a decision on restricted free agent Kelly Olynyk as well as unrestricted free agents Jonas Jerebko and Amir Johnson. They have the ability to muster up around $40 million in cap space, which is more than enough to offer up a max contract to one of those players who are worthy of such a payday next offseason and then sign in Kelly Olynyk over the cap since they have his Bird rights.

In looking at players who currently play for other teams, there are a ton of relevant players set to enter the free agent market in 2017. No matter how badly I wish the Celtics could somehow pry Giannis Antetokuonmpo from the Bucks, the reality is that top restricted free agents rarely change teams, so I have elected to leave them out of these proceedings. Looking only at the unrestricted free agents, I've categorized the players into one of 5 categories in relation to the Celtics: The Not Leavings, The Unlikely Targets, The At The Right Prices, The Mega-Stars, and The Realistic Targets.

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The Not Leavings: LeBron James (Player Option?, CLE), Stephen Curry (UFA, GS), Kevin Durant (Player Option, GS), Kyle Lowry (UFA, TOR)

These are the free agents who might as well be free agents in title only, as, barring an unforeseen chain of events, they will be re-upping with their current team at season's end.

I know its fun to theorize about a possible banana boat reunion team materializing in the near future, but the reality is that LeBron probably isn't leaving his hometown unless a significantly better situation presents itself somewhere else. Lebron might sign 1+1 player option deals for the rest of his career, or he could sign a long-term deal next offseason as the salary cap is set to level off, but either way he probably isn't leaving Cleveland yet. Steph Curry and Kevin Durant are sitting in an unprecedented position on a team with 4 of the top players in the NBA sharing a starting lineup. Barring an unforeseen catastrophe, they will both return the bay to continue their annual go-around as the NBA's championship favorites for years to come. Since the Warriors do not own Bird rights to Durant, signing both of these players to long-term deals might cost them Andre Iguodala and/or Shaun Livingston, but maintaining that starting lineup is probably worth more than any bench player. With DeMar DeRozan re-upping with the Raptors this offseason, it seems very unlikely that Lowry will abandon his backcourt mate for greener pastures next offseason. He has always postured himself as a player committed to the Raptors organization, and I wouldn't expect that to change over this season.

The Unlikely Targets: Chris Paul (Player, LAC), Jrue Holiday (UFA, NO), Jeff Teague (UFA, IND), George Hill (UFA, UTA), Derrick Rose (UFA, NYK), Taj Gibson (UFA, CHI), Serge Ibaka (Player, ORL)

These are some free agents who might change teams but probably won't be getting any calls from a 617 number for one reason or the other. They will probably be getting pretty big contracts next summer, but I doubt it will be for the Celtics due to the Celtics having players already on their roster who would play their role at a similar or better level.

The point guard position is one where the Celtics already have a glut of players potentially demanding playing time in Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart, and Terry Rozier. Chris Paul will be 32 and demand a higher level Max contract that probably wouldn't be worth it for an aging star in a position filled with rising talent. Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague, and George Hill are all talented players, but are at best equivalent talents to the talent we already have on our roster, so the Celtics probably wouldn't try to lure these players to their team. The only scenario I can see where any of these four players would be brought in is if it was at a well-below-market rate as a contingency plan to avoid overpaying for Isaiah in 2018. I was Tempted to toss Derrick Rose in the Not Leavings, as I think there is a very good chance he sticks in New York and has a solid enough bounce back year that the Knicks re-sign him to retain their core of the 2012 all-star team plus Porzingod in order to attain the 6th seed in the east for the next 2-3 years. With that said, it's altogether possible that he plays his way out of New York on one end of the spectrum or the other, but either way there is probably no way the Celtics even pick up the phone thinking about dialing his number.

Taj Gibson is another player who is talented in his own right but happens to play a position the Celtics simply don't need. With Jae Crowder, Al Horford, Kelly Olynyk, Guerschon Yabusele, Ante Zizic, and (I hope) Jonas Jerebko all demanding minutes at the 4 and 5 for the foreseeable future, there is little reason to add a solid big man who will be 32 and can't really provide anything that isn't already given by one of the aforementioned players. Serge Ibaka was a little harder to place in this category due to him being both a younger and more talented player than Gibson, but he would provide much of the same skills that Al Horford was just paid a max contract to give the Celtics, so I would expect Danny to avoid shelling out another max contract to a player who would be quite a bit redundant with Al Horford.

The At-The-Right-Prices: Tyreke Evans (UFA, NOP), Rudy Gay (Player, SAC), Andre Iguodala (UFA, GSW), J.J. Redick (UFA, LAC), Andrew Bogut (UFA, DAL)

If this were any other Celtics team of the past, these would be the free agents I would expect Boston to sign. They aren't superstars, but these are the slightly more under the radar guys who could be had on decent contracts and would probably be solid contributors for the Celtics. Just pray with me that one of these guys is not our marquee signing next offseason.

Tyreke Evans has never quite lived up to the potential belayed by his stellar rookie of the year performance all the way back in 2009. His career has been spent battling injuries that have never quite allowed him to reach that precipice he found in his first year in the league, but he is still a very talented player that could be an interesting reclamation project under the tutelage of Brad Stevens. Evans presents an intriguing skillset as a secondary ball handler with good vision and scoring ability. With that said, it isn't all that hard to envision Evans and his maybe-now-fixed 3-point jumper playing his way into a near-max level contract if he can manage to finally stay healthy this season, and that would present a scary scenario of Danny maybe throwing max money at a player who has thus far played in at least 70 games only 3 times in his 7-year career.

Rudy Gay is a little bit on the older side and would bring a different skillset to the table. The 6'8" forward would probably slide right into a role providing veteran scoring off the bench. In an unstable organization, he has proven recently to have an increased willingness to be both a better defender and passer and his veteran presence could provide a very solid piece for the Celtics off the bench. He is reportedly already on the trading block, so there is even a possibility he could wind up in a Celtics uniform even earlier than next season. In either the trade or signing scenario, I think Gay could provide the Celtics a good amount of value at a reasonable price if he isn't priced out by other teams.

Andre Iguodala might seem like a likely candidate for the Not Leavings list, but the need for the Warriors to re-sign both Durant and Curry is possibly going to force the Warriors to cut bait with Iggy. If this scenario does indeed play out, then the Celtics might be interested in adding his services as a savvy, championship-tested veteran with some gas left in the tank as a defender and a good teammate on offense. Iggy could join the team likely set to give the Warriors the most trouble in the upcoming seasons and provide valuable leadership and professionalism off the bench, but I wouldn't expect Ainge to bring him in on anything more than a market-level deal due to the presence of Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Jaylen Brown, and maybe even R.J. Hunter or James Young on the wing.

J.J. Redick is really good at something that is pretty important: shooting. He might be set to be 33 next offseason and has never been a good defender, but his shooting would be greatly appreciated in the Celtics' offense whether they improve upon their dreadful long distance shooting or not. He would be a good veteran presence to add to the Celtics wing rotation, and bringing his podcast to Boston would make me a very happy guy, but other teams might price out the Celtics in pursuit of Redick's premium shooting ability.

Andrew Bogut wraps up the category of players who would be quality pieces in the Celtics' rotation, and, like Redick, he specializes in a set of skills that would be valuable to just about any team. Bogut would step in and provide quality rim protection and rebounding off the bench for the Celtics, and his quality passing would fit in nicely with Brad Stevens' system. If Jordan Mickey makes a leap this year or Kelly Olynyk continues his improvements as an interior defender, Bogut might become unnecessary in the Celtics lineup, but at the moment the Celtics project to be a team that would benefit greatly from having a quality rim protector available in their rotation such as Bogut.

The Mega-Stars: Blake Griffin (Player, LAC), Russel Westbrook (UFA, OKC)

These are the cream of the crop, the undeniable superstars who the Celtics will undoubtedly make a run for in hopes of changing their franchise's fortune overnight. I know we all like to believe that, since we signed Al Horford and maybe came down to the final two on Kevin Durant that we will surely land one of the top dogs in the 2017 free agent class, but we aren't the only ones who will be after these players. We landed a borderline All-Star, but the Celtics have still never landed a true superstar free agent, and for this reason, I think it is more likely than not we will whiff on both of these guys, even though I do have legitimate hope that we could land one.

Blake Griffin would present the Celtics with a tantalizing athlete at the 4 who could actually pair with Al Horford very nicely and provide an awesome P&R partner for Isaiah to work with on offense. He would be a superstar with the potential to transform us into a perennial title contender, but the same could be said of Blake on plenty of teams. As with any of these players, we could promise them a trade for yet another superstar to pair with them in the starting lineup (for all I know, we might already have traded for one by this time next year) and that could be enough, but I'll believe it when I see it in regards to our actual chances of landing Griffin over the various options with brighter lights and warmer weather that he will have to choose from.

Russell Westbrook might not even leave the Thunder now that it is undeniably his team, and even if he does, he plays the same position as our resident star IT, but I still believe the Celtics will make a play at courting him away from the OKC next offseason. He is an undeniably talented athlete who seemingly has improved every season and who most would consider a top-4 player in the NBA. Swapping him in for IT in our starting lineup would immediately make our defense unbelievably scary, not to mention that our current roster consists of a crew of high-quality players who can thrive in lower usage roles that would pair with Westbrook's attacking style on offense like mashed potatoes and gravy. Mix in the coaching of Brad Stevens, and the Celtics seem to present an awesome championship-ready squad that would compete for championships right away with the addition of Westbrook, but Westbrook's apparent love for the style industry and big lights might draw him to a bigger name location such as LA, New York, or Miami, so don't necessarily count on seeing him in green for the 2017-2018 season.

*Side note* this will all be thrown into the wind if the Celtics make a move to trade for Westbrook during the 2016-2017 season, as the Celtics could potentially give away IT in that trade anyways and have the chance to get Westbrook to fall in love with the Celts' awesome organization, coaching staff, players, and adoring fans.

The Realistic Targets: Paul Millsap (Player, ATL), Greg Monroe (Player, MIL), Danilo Gallinari (Player, DEN), Gordon Hayward (Player, UTA)

These are the players I fully expect the Celtics to target in the upcoming offseason. They might not be on the superstar level of Blake Griffin or Russel Westbrook, but they are All-Star caliber players who the could improve the roster and who Celtics seem likely to target due to fit and past indications. They don't necessarily reflect my personal favorites on the market, but Danny Ainge doesn't particularly care what I think.

Paul Millsap might not be the bonafide superstar that we all want, but he has seemingly been perpetually underrated and could be looking to join his former frontcourt buddy Al in Boston. The main hesitation with Millsap is his contract, as his status as 10+ year veteran allows him to sign a max contract at near 35% of the cap, compared to 30% for players with fewer years, such as our recently acquired Al Horford. He is going to be 32 and might not be worth a long-term deal that would pay him more than Horford at a higher age. Paying Millsap nearly $40 million for his age 35 season scares the crap out of me, and it should scare you too. I would expect the Celtics to come forward with an easier to stomach 3-year max deal if their other options fall through. I know it seems like an overpay, but his talent would likely bring them to a contending level over the next few seasons, especially if our assets wind up converting into a star player or two, but we run the risk of just being a slightly different Atlanta Hawks, which does not sound too promising.

Greg Monroe might surprise a lot of people with his presence in this group (I can already read the "I don't want Monroe" comments), but we can't forget that the Celtics were very interested in him just a year ago around this time. He could be a decent compliment to Horford by covering for Horford's rebounding deficiencies and scoring with his back to the basket while Horford does more rim protecting and outside scoring, but the days of having twin towers without great footspeed occupying the frontcourt positions seem to be nearing an end, and Monroe's presence would discourage the small ball that the Celtics are becoming increasingly well equipped to play. If Ainge still values Monroe and could see Horford sliding over and playing big minutes at the 4, then the Celtics will come calling when Monroe Declines his player option to escape Milwaukee. Much like Millsap, I see Monroe as something of a backup plan if the Celtics strike out on both of the below players.

If I were a betting man, I'd probably place bets on one of the following two players to find themselves into a Celtics uniform for the 2017-2018 season, and the first that I'll talk about is Danilo Gallinari. Despite standing 6 feet 10 inches tall, Gallinari Spends the majority of his minutes as a 3. He can play a little 4 but no matter what position he occupies, he knows how to score. He is a career 36.6% 3-point shooter on around 5 attempts per game and got to the free throw line 8 times per game last season and shot near 87% on those attempts. His rebounding and assist numbers are unspectacular, but he could step in and immediately take on a large scoring burden for the Celts. He would also benefit from playing in a better defensive system under Stevens where he would rarely be asked to handle difficult defensive assignments. The Celtics have repeatedly tried to get a hold of him in the past, and I don't expect their interest to wane at all in the upcoming offseason. It is likely that Gallo could be had at a below-max contract barring other teams throwing a gigantic contract in his face, which could give the Celtics flexibility to re-sign Kelly Olynyk Long term and add other legitimate rotation players.

Gordon Hayward to the Celtics just makes too much sense. With a strong connection to Brad Stevens from their time together at Butler, Hayward could reunite with his former coach and fill the Celtics' need for scoring and playmaking on the wing. He would fit perfectly into Stevens' system since he just-so-happened to play in a similar one for Stevens in the past. Don't book your flights to go to the Butler class reunion just yet though, as the Jazz happen to have a budding contender of their own out in Utah. While the Hayward-Stevens connection makes a lot of sense, Hayward might not be too keen on leaving a great situation in Utah, especially if they make the leap this year that many are predicting they will. If Hayward legitimately entertains free agency, you can be sure that the Celtics will be the first team calling with them laying a max offer on the table with the promise of being a contender through the entirety of Hayward's prime.

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So there it is, my top-level view of the 2017 free agent class and where the Celtics are set to stand amongst it. While everyone loves to come up with trade scenarios, it is my opinion that this might be the Celtics' best chance to land a piece that would transform them from an intriguing team overflowing with assets into a legitimate dynasty candidate, as we could potentially acquire superstar level talent without giving up any of the talented assets we already have. If you think any of these guys is miscategorized or if there is another guy the Celtics should be targeting, let me know in the comments below. Hope you all enjoyed looking farther forward into the future than we realistically should.

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