FanPost

Why shouldn't the Celtics make a trade? They can already win 18 in '18

As soon as Kevin Durant signed with the Warriors, millions of NBA fans were ready to concede the next three or four championships to Golden State. While they will and should be the favorites to win the title for the next few years, with a little bit of luck, the Boston Celtics could be their biggest threat as soon as next year. Winning banner number 18 in 2018 has a nice ring to it, and it can happen by simply keeping the current roster together and adding a max free agent next summer. No trade for Jimmy Butler, DeMarcus Cousins, Paul George, or Jahlil Okafor. Just rolling with a roster that tied for the 3rd best record in the East last season that swapped Evan Turner and Jared Sullinger for Jaylen Brown and Al Horford.


I have also heard some Celtics fans clamoring to go all in right now and trade for Russell Westbrook and/or Blake Griffin, both of whom will likely be free agents next summer. Trading for either today likely increases the Celtics to sign them next summer, but I don't see it as worth the risk. The reason either player is even "available" is because neither of their current teams want to risk losing them for nothing next summer. Why should the Celtics take on that risk? Considering the likely asking cost, trading for the pair would feel an awful lot like what the Nets did to give us this trove of assets. Let's not become the Nets.

Unlike the Warriors, the Celtics are in a great position to keep improving. Marcus Smart is 22 and entering his third season in the NBA and was arguably the best player for the Celtics in the playoffs. Kelly Olynyk is a seven-footer entering his fourth season and finished last season with the 16th highest 3-point percentage in the NBA. The only other center to finish in the top 100 was new Celtic Al Horford (unless you count Draymond Green as a center, who finished 35th overall). Jaylen Brown was just the third pick in the NBA draft and, despite your opinion on him overall, he definitely has the physical and mental traits to become a star for Boston.

RJ Hunter and Terry Rozier both had their moments as rookies last season and are both just 22 years old. Guerschon Yabusele and Ante Zizic won't not play in America next year, but both were first round draft picks with upside. James Young is still technically on the roster and is only 20, and could be the second coming of Gerald Green (becoming a rotation player somewhere else). That is eight guys on the Celtics roster on a rookie contract drafted in the first round.

Since 2010, Jae Crowder went from playing in Junior College to being the Big East Player of the Year to a D-Leaguer to bench player on Dallas to a starter for Boston to arguably the best two-way player on the Celtics last season. Crowder was physically a late bloomer in high school and has taken major strides every year he has played. Anyone who has watched him play knows better than to bet against him continuing to imptove at age 26, not with the motor he has. Jordan Mickey is a 22 year old second round pick that has been a shot blocking juggernaut in the NCAA, D-League, and even in the NBA in his limited minutes.

That makes 10 players on the Celtics roster that one can reasonably expect to improve over the next few years. Smart, Crowder, and Olynyk were already key parts of a 48-win Celtics roster who, along with Brown, are candidates to take a major leap forward by the 2017-18 season into stardom. And that's what the Celtics really need to break through both Cleveland and Golden State to raise their 18th banner, more star power. One way to do that would be to trade for one, but the more prudent way would be to hope one of the 10 players already on the roster takes "the leap."

Kawhi Leonard was drafted 15th. Steph Curry was drafted 7th and didn't make an All Star game until his 5th season. Draymond Green and DeAndre Jordan were both drafted 35th overall. Jimmy Butler, who has been constantly linked to the Celtics was drafted 30th. All of these players came out of seemingly nowhere to become All Stars or better. Will the same thing happen with one of the 10 Celtics players? There's no guarantee, but it's not out of the question. I'd rather roll with a roster that tied for third in the East, added Al Horford, and hope another star emerges rather than trade for one that kills the Celtics biggest strength over the Warriors; a deep and versatile bench that will only keep improving.

The Celtics need at least 2 more All Star level players, and one will most likely come via free agency next summer. While there are a number of potential targets that would improve Boston, my gut tells me Gordon Hayward is most likely the max free agent Ainge signs. Hayward will be 27 next summer, played for Stevens in college, and he may very well make his first All Star game next season. The Celtics can add Hayward next season for nothing more than cap space, while trading for Butler or Cousins or any other player would cost cap space and young, cost controlled players who could all make that leap. Not only that, waiting a year to truly go for the 18th banner might be the Celtics best chance anyways as the Warriors will probably reach their absolute playoff peak next season, only to begin a regression to the mean in 20017-18.

Steph Curry is set to make just over $12M next season in the last year of his contract. Kevin Durant can also opt out of his contract next year to get a larger pay day from Golden State, or make close to $28M by opting into his deal. It's not out of the question to think that Curry and KD will make over $60M combined next season. When you add that to the over $34M made by Draymond Green and Klay Thompson combined, the Warriors could have $94M tied up in 4 players against a projected $102M cap. There is a very real possibility that they lose Andre Igoudala (who will be 34 by the 2018 Finals) next summer, and will have to fill out their roster with late draft picks and ring chasing vets, all of whom are pretty much hit or miss.

Benches may matter more in the regular season than the playoffs, but they still matter. Even though Golden State should be able to keep at least two of their Big Four on the court at all times, teams have to be able to take advantage of these "bench units." Boston has a deep enough roster to take advantage of these times, but a trade for another All Star now would kill that depth. That being said, ultimately defeating Golden State comes down beating them when Curry, Thompson, KD, and Green are on the court with whoever their fifth player is, even if it's Shawn Bradley.

Predicting the Warriors roster past their big four for the 2017-18 season is impossible right now, but let's just assume they will find at least one above average player to close out games with. No matter who that person ends up being, the Celtics, as currently constructed, can defend Golden State. They may not be able to stop them, because no one will be able to fully stop that roster, but they can certainly play with them. Why? Because Boston has the players to defend one-on-one, their players can switch, and they're all really good on defense.

Last season the Celtics had the 4th best team Defensive Rating in the NBA, according to Baketball-Reference, and then they added Al Horford. Avery Bradley was just named to the NBA All Defensive First Team, receiving the third most votes for the team and most of any guard. Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart, and Al Horford all received votes for the First Team, and Crowder even finished with more points than LeBron James. Jordan Mickey averaged 3.6 blocks in just under 35 minutes per game as a sophomore at LSU two seasons ago, and 4.4 blocks in 33.4 minutes per game in the D-League last season. Jaylen Brown is listed at 6'7" and is a quarter inch shy of a seven-foot wingspan according to NBA.com. Terry Rozier was a ball thief in his sophomore season at Louisville and last year in Maine, averaging 2 and 1.9 steals per game those two seasons.

Brown, Mickey and Rozier all have to prove that they can be, at minimum, plus defenders at the NBA level, but that seems like a good bet to happen. If at lest two of them can at least get to the 'others receiving votes' list on All Defensive team by 2017-18, and Bradley, Crowder and Horford at least maintain their current levels, the Celtics could have a historic defense led by soon-to-be perennial DPOY candidate Marcus Smart. Maybe that is putting too much on Smart, but again, this entire piece is about everything that isn't too far-fetched to happen, actually happening. And anyone who watched Smart play last season knows that Marcus Smart being on the doorstep of becoming the best perimeter defender in the league isn't all that far-fetched.

Between Smart, Bradley, Crowder, Brown, Mickey, Rozier and Horford, the Celtics have seven players who realistically could be in the 'others receiving votes' category for the All Defensive teams in 2007-18 at minimum. That means seven of the Celtics rotation players could be among the best 25 or 30 defenders in the NBA. Sure, the Warriors stars can log more playoff minutes to make up for their lack of a bench against a lot of teams, but the Celtics will make them pay for that like no other team will.

Trading for Cousins, Butler, or George likely costs at least two of Smart, Crowder, Bradley, or Brown, as well as some of the other eight first rounders on rookie deals, and future Nets picks, which could be really good picks since the Nets are kind of awful right now. I'd love to see them max out Sully to play 22 mpg. I'd rather just keep all of them, plus all the other rookies, and see what happens with them. Okafor wouldn't cost as much, but the odds of him becoming an elite defender are far lower than at least one of our elite defenders developing a plus offensive game.

Keep in mind that either the Celtics or Raptors, as currently constructed on July 22nd, are the 2nd best team in the East, but still behind Cleveland and way behind Golden State. Trading for Cousins, Butler, George or Okafor doesn't change that. I'd rather see if any of the players the Celtics would lose in the move can become at least as good as at least Butler. But by keeping everybody, and signing Hayward or another star free agent next summer, the Celtics could have an incredibly deep lineup with a closing lineup that could actually hang with Curry, Thompson, KD and Draymond as best as you could hope to.

Imagine a closing lineup of Smart, Bradley, Crowder and Horford paired with one of Hayward, Westbrook, or Griffin signed as a free agent. Now imagine that team has a second unit of Isaiah Thomas, Rozier, Brown, Mickey and Olynyk. Maybe that's not how it all shakes out depth wise come the 2018 playoffs based on who takes the leap, but that is quite the top 10 to have. Remember how bad the Warriors bench may be in two seasons? That's a roster that could not only win the 18th championship in franchise history in 2018, but would be set up to bring the franchise tally into the 20's.

At least one player on the current roster is going to take a leap within the next two years and become an All Star. I'd rather they do it while still wearing green.

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