With Evan Turner now collecting his (massive) paychecks as a member of the Portland Trail Blazers, Brad Stevens will need someone to step up and fill the role of sixth man.
Marcus Smart could be that guy.
After averaging 9.1 points, 4.2 rebounds and 3 assists over 27.3 minutes per game, Smart’s raw numbers were in line with those of Turner, who, in just one more minute of play, put up a 10.5/4.9/4.4 line.
But what Turner was able to do as Boston’s primary ball handler for the second unit went beyond the box score. Not only did he create open looks for teammates—getting creative when he needed to—but he was also steady when calling his own number.
Using his 6’7” size against smaller defenders, Turner was possibly at his best when posting up, scoring 0.99 points per possession, which ranked in the 83.9 percentile among players with at least 100 post-ups last season. Smart didn’t come anywhere close in this particular aspect of the game, scoring just 0.81 points per possession while only posting up 42 times all year.
The ability to dump the ball into Turner for one of his patented turnaround jumpers late in the shot clock was a staple of the Celtics’ offense whenever it stalled out. Though not as tall at just 6’4”, Smart should, in theory, be able to supply Boston with something similar simply due to the fact he’s much stronger than a lot of the players who guard him.
The same can be said regarding the difference in their isolation games. While Turner wasn’t as effective in these situations (105 plays, 0.90 PPP, 68th percentile), he was much better than Smart (32 plays, 0.66 PPP, 21.3rd percentile). Smart’s poor isolation play is troubling considering A) Smart is faster than Turner when turning the corner and B) Smart’s claim to fame in college was his ability to get to the rim and finish.
We haven’t seen that kind of aggression from Smart since he entered the league, and it seems the severely sprained ankle he suffered his rookie year might have something to do with it.
“Last year, my ankle injury held me back from a lot of things,” Smart told the Boston Herald in July 2015. “I couldn’t do a lot of things that I was capable of doing in college, like getting to the rim.”
That injury occurred almost two years ago now. The Celtics need Smart to get back on the horse and attack the rim like he did at Oklahoma State, especially if he wants to make up for Turner’s absence. I broke down Smart’s numbers when driving to the hoop in late February, and the results were quite shocking.
If there’s anything Smart can hang his hat on, though, it’s his improved work as a pick-and-roll ball handler. He was actually slightly better than Turner in this area last year, scoring 0.77 points per possession compared to ET’s 0.71. Granted, neither of these numbers is particularly good. Smart wound up in the 49.8th percentile while Turner was all the way down in the 33.8th percentile.
But what Smart’s numbers lack, he makes up for in the eye test.
Here Smart snakes around David Lee’s screen and hesitates for just a quick moment. That hesitation forces both Jahlil Okafor and Jakarr Sampson to shift their weight towards Smart in case they need to contest a pull-up jump shot. With their momentum taking them away from the basket, they are unable to recover to Amir Johnson who receives a beautiful no-look pass from Smart for the easy score.
This is just one example of many, and it’s not so much the pass that’s makes this sequence so great. Instead it’s that hesitation and the changing of speeds that makes the play so effective, and Smart utilizes it to perfection.
This is something he’ll only get better at with more in-game reps, and the same can be said for his post-up game and work in isolation. They’ll all improve in time.
Stevens doesn’t need Smart to be Turner. He has his own set of strengths, but his weaknesses just so happen to be things Turner was able to exploit.
Marcus is capable of executing those very plays in his own right. If he can add those moves consistently to his game in addition to an improved stroke from beyond the three-point line and his already excellent perimeter defense, the Celtics will be hard pressed to hand over the second-unit keys to anyone but him.