FanPost

The minutes issue

The Celtics are in a very unique position, currently the #2 seed in the East yet also holding a top-4 pick in the upcoming draft. Ainge's refusal to give up flexibility this summer in order to improve this year's team means that the Celtics will also have close to max money to offer to a free agent this summer. There has been a lot written about who the Celtics should draft and who to go after in free agency. Many seem giddy about an already-anticipated lineup that includes Gordon Hayward and Markelle Fultz. In order give us a bit more context, I decided to look at what potential playing time will be available to whoever we end up adding to the roster.

In order to get an idea of the playing time that will be available, I calculated the True MPG for this season for each player (I did this by dividing their total minutes by the total games the Celtics have played. I like this better than mpg, because it is a more accurate representation of the percentage of available minutes a player has used.) The TMPG for players under contract next year are as follows:

  • Isaiah Thomas - 31.3
  • Marcus Smart - 29.2
  • Jay Crowder - 27.9
  • Al Horford - 26.3
  • Avery Bradley - 22.2
  • Terry Rozier 16.2
  • Jaylen Brown 15.9
  • Jordan Mickey 1.9
This gives us 170.9 minutes. If you include Olynyk (18.9 TMPG, RFA) and Zeller (6.5 TMPG, team option) that puts us at 196.3 minutes. There are 240 minutes available each game, so that leaves 43.7 minutes for the rest of the roster. Most of the available minutes are coming from the assumed loss of Amir Johnson (19.8 TMPG) and Jonas Jerebko (15.5 MPG).

This little analysis left me with two big take-aways:
  1. Finding minutes for next year's pick is going to be difficult. No matter what pick we get, if Ainge sticks to the BPA mantra then it is almost certainly going to be someone who needs to find time on the wing (or at point guard). If Bradley stays healthy next year and Brown continues to improve and earn more playing time, there will be even less minutes available. Someone (Rozier?) is likely going to lose playing time next year.
  2. Signing a free agent wing like Gordon Hayward would mean someone would HAVE to be dealt. There just would be no way to play everyone (unless we are going to take small-ball to a whole new level and turn Crowder into a full-time power forward).
There are other options of course. Danny could surprise and take someone like Jonathon Isaac in the draft, especially if we get unlucky in the lottery. And obviously any trades change the equation completely. But this was a good reminder for me that roster construction and player acquisition can be more complex than it initially appears.

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