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Are We Ready For The Magic?
Perhaps this will change as gametime gets closer, but is it just me or is there a lot less hype for this game than we would have anticipated coming into the season? If you had asked me then how many losses these teams would have after a dozen games and I would have probably guessed 3 total, not 3 each.
The Magic dropped some early games to the Pistons and Thunder and more recently to the Cavs, but they've been feasting on the bottom of the league in their last three wins, including a revenge win over Oklahoma City. For their part, the Celtics have been struggling ever since that TWolves game and have been only .500 in the last 6 games. Will this be a clash of the titans or a battle of who could care less?
Personally I'm hoping for the Celtics to use this game to shake them out of the doldrums. Some players indicated that they've been taking teams too lightly recently. That shouldn't be the case playing against the team that bounced us out of the playoffs last year.
As usual, all eyes will be on the center matchup where Perkins has more than held his own against Dwight. Now we'll see first hand how well Vince Carter is taking over for the departed Hedo. Nameer Nelson is hurt again, so I would hope that Rondo can take advantage of the Jason Williams matchup. Both teams also boast newly improved, deeper benches.
So this should be a good early-season litmus test of sorts for both teams. The cast of characters has changed somewhat (KG and VC in, Hedo and Baby out) but both teams will want to assert themselves as the class of the East and get a leg up on homecourt advantage.
The Celtics have had a day or so of rest, a mostly healthy roster, and clear motivation. In other words, no excuses. If they win, great, we're back on track (for now). If they lose, then there are some issues that the team will have to look long and hard at.
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Speaking of Slumps, How About Rasheed Wallace?
I went into some detail about Eddie House's recent shooting slump over the past six games and in the midst of writing it and sorting through all of the stats, I realized Rasheed Wallace is also suffering through some tough times from beyond the arc. I knew Wallace was missing quite a few shots from distance lately, but I failed to realize just how many. Unfortunately, his numbers are even uglier than House's.
Over the past six games, the Celtics have shot 93 three-pointers, which equates to 15.5 per game. Over that same stretch, Wallace has shot 31 of those 93 threes, good for 5.16 per game. So over the course of the Celtics' most recent 3-3 stretch, exactly one third (33.3 percent) of the Celtics' three-point shots have come from Rasheed Wallace. Now, this wouldn't necessarily be a problem if 'Sheed was shooting at a decent clip. Unfortunately, of the 31 threes 'Sheed has taken, he's made only five of them, which measures out to 16.1 percent.
Now, there are slumps and then there are slumps. I deem this as the latter of the two. Rasheed Wallace is the current capital of Brick City, but it doesn't seem to be bothering much of anyone. In fact, I'm not even sure Doc Rivers and the coaches have noticed. If they didn't tell him to stop shooting so many threes after he went 2-7 against Minnesota, 0-6 against Phoenix, 0-4 against New Jersey and 2-7 against Utah in four straight games, they aren't ever going to.
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Same Old Story
Stop me when you've heard this refrain. This team isn't getting any younger. (Oh, you stopped me already. Well, I'll try to make some salient points the rest of the way. Thank you for your time and patience.)
Even two years ago, the championship team struggled with the athletic Hawks. Last year the Bulls gave us more fits than they had any right to. Now we've dropped two games in a row to young teams and the question has to be asked. How much of a problem is age going to be this year?
I am not backing off my "don't panic" post from a few days ago. This team is constructed to win a championship this year and baring a major injury the will be in the mix at the end (perhaps even as a favorite). However, you can't expect this team to go after the Jordan-Bulls regular season record (no matter what Sheed says). We've been spoiled the last couple of years with the team flying out of the gates like fighter jets launching off of an aircraft carrier. Most teams, even championship teams, don't do that. Losses happen. Sometimes they happen in bunches. The key is to learn from those losses and not let them become a habit.
The Hawks are a young, hungry, rapidly improving team with playoff experience and a bit of a chip on their shoulders. They really get up for games against teams like the Celtics. It is a major statement when they win those games. The Pacers are a young team in search of an identity. They have a number of new faces and a good deal of talent. In short, they've got no pressure and nothing to lose. They were also lucky enough to catch an aging team on the 2nd half of a back to back. I hate to say I told you so, but I was worried about this past week. And I wasn't alone.
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Where Have You Gone, Eddie House?
The Celtics are now 3-3 in their past six games and a variety of factors have contributed to that record: Their pick and roll defense has been abysmal, they've so far failed to be a dominant rebounding team, they've struggled with back to back games and haven't had too much success against uptempo offenses. Paul Pierce has mentioned the team needing to get off to better starts, and while I'm quick to agree with him, I also feel that we have not received the same spark off the bench from Eddie House in the past six games that we've become accustomed too.
To me, House is the team's energizer bunny. His release is lightning quick and when he hits his first bucket he just keeps going and going and going. We've seen him act as a one-man wrecking crew, capable of both bringing the Celtics out of a deep hole and turning a three-point lead into a nine-point lead in the span of a single minute. After all, this was the man who set a Celtics single season record for three-point percentage in a season last year with a .444 mark from deep.
While I could be quick to criticize the Celtics' team defense these past six games, I'm more concerned with what I deem as an overall lack of energy. Whether it's fatigue or complacency or a burning desire for the playoffs to get here, the C's are looking like a stalled out car that needs a jump-start. But Eddie's one of those players whose offense creates energy for the rest of the squad and that lack of energy from House these past six games has only compounded the energy problem for the rest of the team. Eddie's always been one of those guys who forces you to shake your head in wonderment while muttering, "He got another one." These past six games, I've been shaking my head in frustration while sighing, "Missed another one."
The numbers tell the story after the jump
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Byron Scott Fired....Who's Next?
NBA Head Coaches are like cats on a hot tin roof. You wonder why they're up there and how long they can stay on.
It’s a tough job. You have to be a leader, be a bit mad, and have significant people and organizational skills to be successful. And you have to have "it’ – what ever "it’ is.
The news of the firing of Hornets Head Coach Byron Scott rippled through the nets of NBA newswires.
First, new comer Emeka Okafor is slow to recover from a toe injury, then Rondo challenges Chris Paul, and now Byron is gone. Things ain’t so easy in the Big Easy, and got worse with Paul's ankle inury. With a 3-6 record to start the year, after winning 49 games last year, I guess someone had to be blamed. It will always be the coach.
Honestly, I was surprised the Hornets held it together as long as they did after the first attempt to trade Tyson Chandler to the Thunder. That was as direct a sign of financial needs taking precedence over winning as you can get . Yes, that can affect team morale.
Such a move would not be surprising for a non-contending club, but for a team with playoff aspirations, it was an eyebrow raiser. Then, reminiscent of a Denver flip flop, they tried to compete, even adding Antonio Daniels later in the year. The Hornets had added our own James Posey the summer before, hoping that he was that final piece. My how things change. This roster was never deep.
Scott was Coach of the Year just two years ago. The head coach position is, at best, precarious. Yahoo! Sports Marc Spears reports that it was intimated that there were chemistry issues and philosophical differences between Scott and some players.
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Do you know what else wins championships? Rebounding
I had a stats class at the start of my MBA program. There was a final project in the class where each student had to pick a topic and create a statistical model. My topic - what are the characteristics of a winning NBA team? It turned out that rebounding was the most important quality in a championship team. The intuition behind this was rather simple to me, more rebounds creates more possessions for you and less for the opponent, and therefore will lead to more points and wins.
Last night the Atlanta Hawks dominated the glass, out-rebounding the Celtics by 16 boards (47 to 29), including 16 offensive boards (to the Celtics 6). It seemed that there were some rotation issues that resulted in the Hawks, particularly fan favorite ZaZa Pachulia, getting a few cheap offensive boards. Wednesday night, the Celtics were out-rebounded the Jazz by six, and importantly the Jazz also collected 17 offensive rebounds.
So far this season the Celtics game-by-game total rebound differentials are +6, -2, +6, +3, +5, -4, +3, -3, -6 and -16. The offensive board stats are even worse: 0, -4, -6, -1, -4, +2, +5, -6, -5, and -10
This is not a good sign for banner 18 hopes. Today the Celtics are 28th in the league in offensive rebounding and 19th in defensive rebounding. While its early in the season and this is a small sample size, the Celtics will need to improve considerably before playoff time. In the 2008 championship season the Celtics were the 17th best offensive rebounding team and eight best defensive rebounding team. Last year's team was eight best offensive rebounding team and third best defensive rebounding team on a percentage basis - and that was without Kevin Garnett for roughly half of the season.
So why are the Celtics under performing on the glass this season?
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Nobody's Perfect
A little perspective before you panic about last night's loss to a very good Atlanta Hawks team.
- Last night the Lakers were routed by 26 points by the Denver Nuggets.
- They also lost by 14 to the Dallas Mavericks on the 2nd night of the season.
- We've already beat the Cleveland Cavs this year.
- The Cavs then promptly went to Toronto and lost by 10.
- They also dropped a close game to the Bulls.
- The Magic were blown out by the Thunder by 28 points.
- They've also dropped games to the Pistons and Cavs.
- The C's are now tied with the Suns (the other team that beat us) for the best record in basketball at 8-2.
- The Hawks are a game behind at 7-2.
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A Rested Team is an Offensively Efficient Team
NBA players probably don't understand the luxury of the typical three day weekend. They work nights and weekends on most occasions, so three days with no games to them must be like Friday or Monday off for the majority of us.
Above all, we take advantage of the time off and based on the smackdown the the Celtics laid down on the Jazz last night, it seems pretty clear they made the most of their time off. One day of rest plus two days of practice was just what the doctor ordered for what appeared to be a very fatigued group of Celtics following Saturday night's "outlasting" of the Nets.
The Celtics followed up a sloppy and poorly executed game against New Jersey with a crisp, efficient (on both sides of the ball) and relentless display of teamwork, unselfishness and execution in a 105-86 thrashing of a very capable Utah team. The offense started in the paint, extended beyond the three-point line, eventually spread to the open court and Utah was subdued before it really had a chance to fight back.
The numbers from last night speak volumes:
41-77 shooting (53.2%), 7-19 3-point shooting (36.8% - a few were chucked up unnecessarily in garbage time), 16-18 free throws (88.9%), 105 points and 30 assists.
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