According to the quick research Sactown Royalty has done , if the season ended today, Boston would have a 19.9% chance to land the top pick.Â TZ makes this note:
Obviously, the four worst teams have a clear advantage in nabbing the top pick. In this draft in particular - should underclassmen expected to enter the draft actually enter the draft - the top 4 picks will be extremely coveted. I'll note that the fourth-worst team in the league has a 70% chance to get a top 5 pick. If the cut-off in talent behind Greg Oden, Kevin Durant, Brandan Wright, and Joakim Noah is as dramatic as it currently appears to be - look for a lot of tanking.