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Graphical Look At Percentages

Numbers don't always tell the whole story. If you are like me, sometimes you just have to see it to understand. In that spirit, I thought I'd lay out the lottery chances graphically. The numbers are based on this Wikipedia entry and for the sake of this exercise I'm depicting the end result to be the Griz get the worst record and we get the 2nd worst with some yet unnamed team getting the 3rd worst record.

Here is a graph showing a brief outline of each team's chances to land each pick stacked up against each other. The thing that surprises me is that both of the bottom 2 teams have a better chance at getting the 4th pick than any other single pick.

oddsall.jpg

oddscgrizpicks.jpg

oddsceltspicks.jpg

odds3rdpicks.jpg

Of course few of us are really that concerned with the difference between the top pick and the second pick. Likewise, most could care less what the odds of getting the 3rd pick are vs. the 4th pick. All that matters in this draft is "are we in the top 2?" It is the haves and have-nots. Here is the breakdown of chances for each team.

oddsgriz.jpg

oddscelts.jpg

odds3rd.jpg

So those worried about losing the 2nd worst record are worried about the difference between those last two graphs.

Just something to ponder going into the Bobcats game.

(Of course this could be moot if one or both of the top picks decide to hit the books another year)