Hollinger is back at it with his chalkboard and Will Hunting impersonation. Here is his take on a couple career records that could fall in the not so distant future:
The career record most likely to be broken in the next 15 years is the record for 3-pointers, currently held by Reggie Miller at 2,560.
Ray Allen is hot on his heels at 2,071, and the method estimates he has a 97 percent chance. That's only because we are honoring the Bill James rule that no "Favorite Toy" probability can exceed 97 percent. What the method is really saying, in this case, is that Allen will break the record if he isn't injured. Allen's established rate is 198 per season, so even if he cools off a bit with age, he'll break it at some point in 2010-11.
One other record has a greater than 50-50 shot at falling in the next few years: John Havlicek's record for career field goal misses, which stands at 13,417.
Havlicek's mark is under assault from both Allen Iverson and Kobe Bryant. Bryant has a 69.5 percent shot, but Iverson is likely to get there first -- he's at 71.3 percent. There's a decent chance that within half a decade Hondo will be down to third on the list.