2013 NBA Draft: Kevin O'Connor's Top 50 Big Board

This means that sometimes I will rank a player that has proven he has talent over a player that simply has potential. While potential is a nice thing to have, there have been so many players that come into the league with "potential" that never really pan out. There is no such thing as a "safe pick" but there is such a thing as drafting someone with a "high probability" of being a quality player.

Which leads me to this. Some players dominate in college but it never translates to the NBA. Why is that? I look at the level of competition but also the way they were able to gain success. To make a football comparison, some quarterbacks win the Heisman yet go undrafted in the NFL. They are slow to read the player; that may work in college but not the NFL. The same applies to some successful college point guards that don't make it in the NBA. For a big, he may only play well in college because he's bigger and stronger than everyone else, but not the NBA.

Some players explode when they are on the court...in a good way. Whether it's blazing speed, elite change of direction ability or elastic-like reach, some players just stand out from the others. In terms of basketball skills, International prospects can be hard to judge considering the limited footage available and the level of competition they are facing. Regardless, if you look at an individual player, there are obviously some skills that pop out in regards to the others.

Every player has weaknesses; some are more easily correctable than others. For example, shooting strokes seem to never change. If someone is terrible at shooting in college, chances are they will not get drastically better in the NBA. It's rare to see a player go from bad to great over the course of their career. It happens, but not so often. On the other hand, a player might have success from the free throw line but not take many jumpers in college. The success at the line is a sign that they can develop a mid-range game.

Players that were team leaders or have proven to be "good kids" get a plus in my book over slightly more talented players that are trouble makers or don't have much of a work ethic. Yes, so that means the players that are totally lazy, don't work hard, haven't improved much in college, have trouble off the court or are just downright not smart, get a downgrade. That is not to say these players won't be successful, but I'd personally rather take my chances with a player that works hard and wants to succeed over one that might be more talented but takes his skills for granted.

Kevin O'Connor's Top 50 Big Board

1. Victor Oladipo - SG - Indiana

2. Nerlens Noel - C - Kentucky

3. Ben McLemore - SG - Kansas

4. Anthony Bennett - PF - UNLV

5. Alex Len - C - Maryland

6. Otto Porter - SF - Georgetown

7. Trey Burke - PG - Michigan

8. CJ McCollum - SG - Lehigh

9. Giannis Antetokounmpo - SF - Greece - ANALYSIS

10. Shabazz Muhammad - SF - UCLA

Victor Oladipo tops my list based on his potential as a stud defensive player. I think he'll be an immediate difference maker for whatever team ends up on and he will still improve offensively as his career develops. He's one of the few potential All Stars in this draft; Nerlens Noel is another one. Even though he's coming off a torn ACL and needs to put on a lot of muscle, he has all the physical tools you look for in a terrific big man. Small forwards Giannis Antetokounmpo and Shabazz Muhammad both crack my top 10. Antetokounmpo is less developed than Muhammad, but probably has potential to be a better all around player. Shabazz Muhammad is a player that I believe could be better in the NBA than he was in college. Once he refines his game, he could become a tremendous scorer.

11. Dennis Schroeder - PG - Germany

12. Cody Zeller - PF - Indiana

13. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - SG - Georgia

14. Gorgui Dieng - C - Louisville - ANALYSIS

15. Erick Green - PG - Virginia Tech

16. Jamaal Franklin - SG - San Diego State

17. Lucas Nogueria - C - Brazil

18. Jeff Withey - C - Kansas - ANALYSIS

19. Ricky Ledo - SG - Providence

20. Sergey Karasev - SF - Russia

Erick Green might be the player of this group that first jumps out at you. If you read my "Top 10 Point Guards" article you would know that I love his game. He's a combo-guard that scores at a very high rate but has surprisingly impressive point guard skills. He won't be drafted until later in the first round (or in the second round), but he will be a steal in this draft. Ricky Ledo also makes an appearance earlier than most draft boards. I don't think his skill on the offensive end of the floor can be ignored. He didn't play in college but I think his game is built for the NBA.

21. Kelly Olynyk - C - Gonzaga

22. Tony Snell, - SG - New Mexico

23. Glen Rice Jr. - SF - Rio Grande Valley

24. Mason Plumlee - PF - Duke - ANALYSIS

25. Myck Kabongo - PG - Texas - ANALYSIS

26. Livio Jean-Charles - PF - France

27. Reggie Bullock - SF - North Carolina

28. Archie Goodwin - SG - Kentucky

29. Mike Muscala - C - Bucknell

30. Shane Larkin - PG - Miami

Kelly Olynyk deserves to be higher on the list but he slips down to number 21. I think he has a lot of talent but I can't ignore his weaknesses on the defensive end of the floor. He could easily become a great sixth man but I think his lack of abilities on defense prevent him from being a full time starter. I believe that both Myck Kabongo and Archie Goodwin deserve to be in the top 30. Even though they are extremely raw, they have flashed the ability to be quality players in the NBA. Kabongo is a smart pass-first point guard and a terrific man-to-man defender. Goodwin must work on his shot but is an explosive player that excels in transition.

31. Steven Adams - C - Pittsburgh

32. Tony Mitchell - PF - North Texas

33. Michael Carter-Williams - PG - Syracuse

34. Tim Hardaway Jr. - SG - Michigan

35. Rudy Gobert - C - France

36. Allen Crabbe - SG - California

37. Lorenzo Brown - PG - N.C. State

38. C.J. Leslie - SF - N.C. State

39. Jackie Carmichael - PF - Illinois State

40. Isaiah Canaan - PG - Murray State

This is probably the group with four names that people will say should be higher: Steven Adams, Michael Carter-Williams, Tony Mitchell, and Rudy Gobert. I'm just not high on any of these players. All four of them have the physical tools you look for in a player, but I don't see the pure basketball skill or potential in any of them. Steven Adams and Tony Mitchell probably have the best chance to be quality NBA players; Adams is young and has time to grow, Mitchell just needs to fix his lazy attitude on the court. Down the list is Isaiah Canaan. On my profile about him, I called him the "poor man's version of Trey Burke." He could be a potential first round pick.

41. Solomon Hill - SF - Arizona

42. Grant Jerrett - PF - Arizona

43. Trevor Mbakwe - PF - Minnesota

44. James Ennis - SF - Long Beach State

45. Pierre Jackson - PG - Baylor

46. DeShaun Thomas - SF - Ohio State

47. Colton Iverson - C - Colorado State

48. Nate Wolters - PG - South Dakota State

49. Kenny Kadji - PF - Miami

50. Ray McCallum - PG - Detroit

Pierre Jackson is the most electric player out of these ten players. He's a great scorer and could easily become a Nate Robinson type of player, but with more true point guard skills. Trevor Mbakwe and Kenny Kadji are two big men with contrasting playing styles but could easily be effective NBA players. Mbakwe is a high-energy big man that thrives off of offensive rebound put back dunks. Kadji is a perimeter big man that could spread the floor effectively in NBA.

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