For all intents and purposes, Keith Bogans isn't an NBA player at this moment. He's a commodity. He's instant cap space. He's $5.2M off the books immediately. For any team that is at or over the luxury tax line, that could be very valuable.
The problem is that the only teams that are over the luxury line are either way above it (Knicks, Nets) or close enough to it that they can pretty easily get under it without much help. The Knicks and Nets have already punted on this year's tax so they don't really need the extra cash that Bogans would provide them (though they might be tempted to make a move that saves them tax dollars this year at the cost of a 2nd round pick or something like that).
The Pacers, Clippers, and Raptors are all within a million (or so) of the tax line so I'd imagine they could each make smaller deals or cut some non-guaranteed players of their own.
The Celtics are currently over the tax by $3M and that doesn't even count the partial MLE money going to Evan Turner once the dust settles on all this.
All of that adds up to the Celtics being the ones that need Keith Bogans' non-guaranteed money the most. They can't trade Bogans to another team and take back $5M in guaranteed money or else they'll be paying the luxury tax this season (which I sincerely doubt the ownership would sign up for unless it was a huge fireworks display trade).
However, the Celtics can simply cut Bogans, sign Evan Turner, figure out what to do with their other non-guaranteed players, and call it an offseason. Chances are, that's exactly what they'll do. Unless some other deal comes along which changes the dynamics of the roster.
You see, there's always that chance which keeps us guessing and hoping. If there wasn't that chance, Danny Ainge would have closed that door long ago. He's keeping it open and thus we're allowed to keep dreaming big.
Behind all of this, lest we forget, is a real live human being. Before getting wrapped up in The Trade (which he profited from handsomely mind you), he was considered a great locker room guy and a solid veteran. There were hopes that he'd be a good guy for Rajon Rondo to pal around with and learn a little from (or something like that).
The problem is, he apparently couldn't cope with his diminished role on the team and something about a rookie head coach playing a guy like MarShon Brooks ahead of him must have made him snap. Ironically, his frustration with his reduced role led to him having absolutely no role whatsoever. Sent home (with pay) to sit out the rest of the season.
Once he's waived, will he simply call it a career? Or will he make an effort to stick on another team? I'm sure his agent would love for him to be traded and then NOT waived, so he can collect another $5M this season. I don't think any team is signing up for that though. Chances are that once he clears waivers, some team will take a look at him for the veterans minimum. But I feel like more teams would have been willing if he had simply played the role of good solider last year (easy for me to say miles away from the situation).
So what's next for Keith Bogans? We'll find out in the coming weeks but it is a safe bet that he won't be on the Celtics payroll much longer.