FanPost

The Lakers’ Offseason Plans for 2018 are Nonsensical

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The worst outcome for the Lakers next offseason is not to outright miss on the A-list free agents they want, but rather to sign free agents a notch below and become pretenders to the NBA throne.

When the Los Angeles Lakers traded away promising point guard D’Angelo Russell to the Brooklyn Nets last offseason, I rolled my eyes. For as much as an annoyance he was to the Lakers’ locker room, he also proved to be a worthwhile NBA player who had a chance of becoming a meaningful contributor on a contending team. The returns for Russell are underwhelming, even with the added luxury of off-loading the Timofey Mosgov contract (4 years, 64 million). I’m more skeptical about Kyle Kuzma’s overall value as an NBA pro, in spite of his hot start in Summer League and preseason. Brook Lopez, the other player the Lakers got from the trade, was a better asset because of his 3-point shooting ability (as a big), and he is solid in all other facets of the game. That said, Lopez is already near his peak (if not there already) at age 29. He is also on an expiring contract, meaning that he might not even stay around the Lakers for very long.

But after that trade happened, the Lakers’ reasons for making it happen began to surface. According to Adrian Wojnarowski, the primary reason for why Russell was traded was to clear cap space for the 2018 free agent class, which was headlined by some guy called LeBron James. The plan of this new Lakers front office, led by new GM Rob Pelinka and new President of Basketball Operations Magic Johnson, is to lure two cream-of-the-crop free agents (LeBron preferably being one of them) next offseason and thus catapult the Purple and Gold back to title contention.

It’s the same old, tired scheme cooked up by Johnson’s and Pelinka’s immediate predecessors, Jim Buss and Mitch Kupchak, and we all know how THAT ended up. They first wanted to lure away Carmelo Anthony to add to their ageing core of Kobe, Pau Gasol and the (yes) the corpse of Steve Nash. Melo decided to stay with the Knicks. After Melo, the Lakers tried to then sign then-Blazer LaMarcus Aldridge, only to be humiliated when word got out about how poorly their meeting went. Supposedly, LMA wanted to understand how he would fit in the team on the court, and what the offense and defence were going to look like. The Lakers representatives were talking about the off-court opportunities he could take advtange of - they wanted to talk about anything other than basketball. Though a make-up meeting was scheduled to mend bridges between the two parties, Aldridge eventually decided to sign with the San Antonio Spurs.

That free agent fiasco was regrettable on the side of the Lakers, but altogether unsurprising. The reality was that the Lakers had little means to convince free agents to to to Los Angeles. The roster was devoid of talent. Their coaching staff was non-descript at best, led by a head coach (Byron Scott) who was a laughingstock both within Lakers fandom and around the wider NBA scene. The franchise as a whole was seen to be hostile towards the burgeoning analytics movement, coming off as out-of-touch and resistant to basketball modernity despite the potential it could serve for a team devoid of talent.

That said…. could Magic and Pelinka follow the same script laid out by their predecessors and yet come away with the ultimate free agent prize? The ‘lack of analytics’ stigma has subsided, and new head coach Luke Walton is far more respected than Byron. But the questions about the roster even now still have not been answered fully. It was overhauled to field very young players who are still unknowns. The only notable pieces likely staying with this team past next season are Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Larry Nance Jr. and (for the sake of argument) Kyle Kuzma. All four are likely going to be players with long careers, but they aren’t likely going to be a draw for free agents one the next offseason rolls around. The other players who are signed long-term are nothing special. Luol Deng is the resident albatross contract, a player past his prime whose onerous deal was more reflective of this past successes and not his current play. Jordan Clarkson is at this point an inefficient scorer who does little else, an All-Rookie First Teamer who got hot late in his rookie season and regressed from then on out. Other pieces like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Brook Lopez and Julius Randle (another young player on the upswing) are fine, but they are all set to be free agents next year. These players, despite their ability, likely will not be a factor in a max free agent’s decision to come.

Let’s use a Celtics example of successfully signing Al Horford to illustrate how relatively little the Lakers can actually offer in terms of players worth playing with. Before Horford’s arrival, the Celtics had an enviable basketball structure that was still getting better. In addition to Coach Brad Stevens, the Cs also have a new All-star in Isaiah Thomas, surrounded by superb roles players like Jae Crowder, Amir Johnson (yes, he counts), Kelly Olynyk, Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley (with third overall draft pick Jaylen Brown to boot). To just about any NBA observer, the Cetlcs’ collection of players then was a far more appealing group to play with than the Lakers’ current crop of long-term players. The Lakers in turn are banking on the odds that Lonzo can become the franchise cornerstone, but is he even ready to be that one year into his career?

This lack of roster talent, despite the addition of Lonzo, is the primary reason why I am doubtful that the Lakers could sign LeBron James and another star-quality player (usually assumed to be Paul George). Obviously, others disagree with my analysis. Maybe an emphasis on the off-court activities available in LA could entice LeBron, who after all puts significant money and effort to promote his name and brand. Maybe he’s not that concerned with chasing the juggernaut-that-must-not-be-named, and would love to have a shot at playing with a flashy point-guard like Lonzo, regardless of his warts. Paul George, for his part, may want to escape Russell Westbrook’s shadow, and the prospect of staying in a city like Los Angeles itself is enough of a reason to put up with a flawed roster and a still-inexperienced head coach and front office.

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So far I have broadly outlined the contours of how NBA commentators see the Lakers’ free agency pal in 2018: Either the plan succeeds (and I eat a lot of humble pie) or it fails (and I am vindicated). Now, I want to then suggest a third way that the next offseason could pan out for the proud Purple-and-Gold franchise. The free agent class of 2018 may be headlined by LeBron, but from my (and maybe your) perspective, the group is still teeming with players who range from good to very good (perhaps even better than very good). You also have names like DeMarcus Cousins and Chris Paul, then minor stars like DeAndre Jordan, Isaiah Thomas and LaMarcus Aldridge. Then below them are potentially key contributors like Greg Munroe, Danny Green, Avery Bradley, Clint Capella and maybe JJ Redick. What I can envision is that the Lakers might panic if they could not land either LeBron or PG13. The best Plan B outside of those two would likely include Cousins and someone else. So let’s say that the max players Lakers are then acquiring are Cousins and Isaiah Thomas. Failing that, the team could then break up one max deal for two mid-tier contracts roughly 14 million apiece. Thus, haul might then be Cousins, Avery Bradley and Danny Green. We can speculate whether the Lakers will then sign B+ players en mass (a combination of Bradley, Green, Munroe, Redick and so on), but it’s the prior hypothetical scenarios that I want to focus on.

The implications for signing a decent haul, relative to what the front office THOUGHT it was going to sign, could extend past next year. With those additions made, the Lakers will certain exit the Western Conference cellar which currently houses the Suns and Kings. How far the Lakers could past that cellar is up for debate. It’s possible they can surpass the Pelicans, Grizzles and Mavericks, but that still puts the team outside the playoff bubble. To be firmly entrenched there, this new Lakers squad has to compete with teams like the Clippers (maybe), Jazz, Blazers, Nuggets and Timberwolves. The odds of the Lakers leapfrogging the the cream of the Western Conference crop, namely the Spurs (ok, maybe not if you are from FiveThirtyEight), Rockets, Thunder and obviously the juggernaut-that-must-not-be-named are slim to none. The tiers I have outlined above are a bit fluid, and you probably think that one might is better or worse than I am letting on. But to assume that the Lakers could surpass all those teams, even with LeBron and Paul George for crying out loud (let alone a less talented haul from agree agency) borders on delusion.

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What the Lakers need to focus on, in stead of going after the big fish, is the rebuilding process they were supposedly on track to do. Do not equate the streak of four straight missed postseasons for four consecutive years of rebuilding. The first three of those years were totally futile efforts to contend for playoffs that just so happens to have younger players caught in the crossfire. The real youth movement only really began with the Luke Walton’s arrival as head coach, and there is a lot to like from his inaugural season. Players who struggled under the Byron Scott regime (both young and old, too many to count) really blossomed under Walton’s tutelage. Thus he was able to mold players like Julius Randle, D’Angelo Russell and Larry Nance Jr. into league-average (at least) material with the added possibility of developing them even further given more time. The logical next step is then to continue to draft and grow more of those average NBA players, to put alongside the small batch of good players it currently has on cost-controlled/inexpensive contracts. Only THEN should the team begin to go big-game hunting, luring the best or up-and-coming players with a pitch emphasising the good coaching and players that marquee free agents will work with.

But by accelerating the rebuild process without the requisite roster talent, the front office is making a risky gamble that could set back the roster from meaningfully contend for a championship. Succeed in landing LeBron and Paul George, and the Lakers are still a ways away from standing out of an extremely loaded Western Conference. Fail to land those two, and the dicey D’Angelo Russell sacrifice was for nothing. In addition, that failure could prompt a front office hysteria, hell-bent on salvaging their get-rich-quick scheme by then splurging on the next shiny objects, only to assign themselves to perpetual mediocrity unless players like Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram break out in a BIG way. The Los Angeles Lakers have long been associated with their ample star power, from those playing the actual basketball game to those watching said game court-side. But Magic and Pelinka’s plan to bring basketball stars to the City of Angels might only bring the team’s chances to score banner 17 only to a distance equal to that between planet Earth and an actual, celestial, star.


-MK

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