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NBA Draft Lottery 2017: What are the Celtics’ odds?

Not as high as you might think.

NBA: Boston Celtics-Media Day David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

The Celtics have a huge game on Monday night. Then the NBA Draft Lottery is on Tuesday night. Let’s review some facts to prepare you for the lottery.

  • Good news: The Celtics hold the greatest odds of getting the number 1 pick (25%).
  • Bad news: The single most likely scenario to happen is that the Celtics will get the 4th pick (35.7%). Note: They can’t fall any lower than 4th.
  • With that said, the Celtics have a 46.5% chance at getting one of the top 2 picks and a 64.3% chance at getting one of the top 3.
  • Go ahead and play lottery simulators like this one. The results may surprise and/or disappoint you.

This is all math. You can find many colorful and informative charts and graphs on the Celtics website. All of it simply has to do with percentages and probabilities because we don’t know what will happen until it does.

Remember also that there is no such thing as being “due” to win the lottery. Failing to win in previous years does not increase your odds of winning this time around. That’s called “gambler’s fallacy.”

I mean, maybe in some mystical, karma-based theology you can work something out where the Celtics didn’t win in 1997 or 2007 so the 3rd 7 is the charm and we’ll definitely win in 2017. Whatever works for you.

Technically the Celtics “won” the lottery last year. They had the 3rd best odds at the number one pick, but they were not guaranteed the 3rd spot. They could have been pushed back as far as 6th. They were one of the 3 teams picked from the proverbial hat. They just happened to be 3rd instead of 1st or 2nd.

Wyc Grousbeck will be the Celtics’ representative at the Lottery. I still remember seeing him looking dejected in the sealed lottery room back in 2007. Hopefully he’s be better luck on the presentation platform.

After we find out where the pick will be, then the real fun will begin. Regardless of where the pick lands, speculation will begin over the team’s plans for it. Will they keep it? Will they trade it? Who will they target?

We’re not done with the playoffs yet, but the first event of the offseason is happening on Tuesday, regardless of what happens in game 7.

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