FanPost

Better PF: Crowder or Morris?

Leon Halip-USA TODAY Sports

At this point, it seems clear that the Celts are going to play a lot of games next year with three wings on the floor at the same time. Hayward, Crowder, Brown, Tatum and Morris are clearly 5 of the top 10 (or so) players on the roster. So I think we are going to see a lot of lineups with IT or Smart playing PG and Horford or Baynes playing center while some trio of GH/JC/JB/JT/MM fills in the other three positions.

My question in those lineups is: Who plays the role of power forward in those lineups? I mean, it is clear that none of GH/JC/JB/JT/MM are actually power forwards. So whenever three of them are on the court together, one of them will have to play out of position and take on the jobs of guarding the other team's power forward (assuming the opposition isn't playing small ball) and boxing out on rebounds. So who is is it gonna be?

Well, the two obvious candidates (to me) are Crowder and Morris. Let's look at them one at a time.

The Case for Crowder

The idea here is pretty simple: Crowder already has the lunchpail, grind-it-out mindset of a power forward. And he is build like a linebacker, so he should be able to cover power forward for stretches. Simply put, he is also just flat out a better player than Marcus Morris right now, so if it is a coin toss between the two, then you go with Crowder. But at the same time, JC is quite undersized for a PF at 6'6" and it seems like sticking him in the paint could minimize his most valuable trait: his versatile, team-first attitude.

So how good can Crowder be at the PF? Well, we actually have some data on this, as Crowder played at the 4 about 600 minutes last year [Nerd Note: I am using NBA.com lineup data and I count Crowder as the 4 if only one of Horford, Johnson, Olynyk, Jerebko or Zeller was on the floor.] Now, most of the time those lineups weren't terribly effective because we didn't have many good wings last year - if Crowder played the 4, it usually meant that Marcus Smart was playing the 3. In order to isolate JC's work at PF, we have to compare the lineup in which Crowder played the 4 to the same lineup but with Crowder replaced with a more "traditional" big.

Pulling the lineup data from the NBA website I was able to come up with two useful comparisons.

Comparison 1: Crowder vs Olynyk

IT/AB/MS/JC/AH: 135 Minutes; +5 Net Rating; 48% Rebounds

IT/AB/MS/KO/AH: 20 Minutes; +5 Net Rating; 44% Rebounds

Here we have Crowder or Olynyk playing alongside Horford and our three best guards. We see the expected: Crowder is more versatile defensively and Olynyk is more versatile offensively, with the net ratings of both lineups being about the same (+5). Interestingly, despite the fact that KO is a better rebounder in general, this lineup as a whole rebounded a touch better with JC playing the 4.

Comparison 2: Crowder vs Amir or Jerebko

IT/MS/JB/JC/AH: 44 Minutes; +0.6 Net Rating; 46% Rebounds

IT/MS/JB/AJ/AH: 23 Minutes; +24 Net Rating; 52% Rebounds

IT/MS/JB/JJ/AH: 17 Minutes; -20 Net Rating; 46% Rebounds

Here we have an interesting case, because the first lineup involving Crowder is one we might see at times this year - it wasn't great last year, but we still have all the personnel and Brown will probably be significantly improved. Crowder didn't defend or rebound as well as Amir (we'll miss you AJ!) but was a clear improvement over Jerebko in this set.

So summing up: Crowder+Horford is probably not as effective as Amir+Horford, but is likely equal to or better than Jerebko or Olynyk with AH. So giving some of JJ or KO's minutes to Crowder is a pretty safe trade.

The Case for Morris

The case here is pretty easy: the dude looks like a power forward. 6'9" and strong, he's got the physical tools. But if you look at the lineups from last year, the Pistons almost never played him at power forward. [Nerd Note: Again, I am using NBA.com lineup data and counting Morris as the PF if they have only one of their more traditional bigs (Drummond, Baynes, Harris, Leuer, Ellenson, Marjanovic) on the court.] No lineup with him at the 4 had more than 16 minutes together total over the whole season. I've read a lot of posts implying that Morris is one of our "bigs" and I wonder if folks are confusing him with Markieff Morris (who did play PF a lot last year)

That being said, we can find some lineups where he played at PF two seasons ago (2015-16). For example:

Comparison 3: Morris vs. Ilyasova

Lineup Minutes Net Rating Rebound%

KCP/Jackson/Johnson/Morris/Drummond 80 Minutes; +17 Net Rating; 58% Rebounds

KCP/Jackson/Johnson/Ilyasova/Drummond 94 Minutes; -13 Net Rating; 52% Rebounds

From this we see that Morris looks a tremendously more effective as a PF than ... Ersan Ilyasova. I am not sure what to make of that because I don't know much about Ilyasova - he looks like a decent journeyman, but I am not sure how good he really is. I think it is also telling that the Pistons did not re-use this lineup in 2016-17. If it was such a killer lineup in 2015-16 (+17 net rating?!!?), why did they go away from it?

Unfortunately, Morris and Baynes didn't ever share the court for very long as a PF/Center combo in Detroit. That would have been really interesting to look at...

So all in all, it does seem like there is cause for hope - either of these guys could hold down the 4 position for stretches. But what say you? Among our wings, who will be the most effective at the 4 next year? Crowder? Morris? Someone else? Let me know in the comments.

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