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Who's Elite in the Eastern Conference?

I have to admit, I've gotten a little tired of people (mostly fans of middle-of-the-road West teams) hating on the Eastern Conference.

Yes, the league's best team, perhaps by far, is in the West. Yes, there has been a significant net flow of established stars from East to West in the last several years. And yes, the 9th seeded West team last season (Denver) would've been 6th and earned a playoff spot had they played in the East. So on and so forth.

But let me push back on all of that a bit.

The disparity between the East and the West is at least a little overstated. If we did make the change to a top-16, conference-agnostic playoff seeding format according to last year's win-loss totals, conference representation would actually be pretty equal (7 from the East and 9 from the West). That's because A) the barrel scrapers in the East are no worse than those of the West, and B) at the top of the standings, the East had twice as many 50-win teams last year (Toronto, Philly, Boston, Cleveland) as the West did (Golden State, Houston). It's mostly at the fringe of the playoff race that the differentiation has always shone through. And frankly, in the end, it's about the elite teams anyways.

Which brings me to another reason why the East is so fascinating. Unlike out West, where the big hitters are mostly established quantities like the Warriors, LeBron James and co., and the Rockets (led by CP3 and Harden, both vets), the top of the East is currently stocked with young, up-and-coming teams that are still proving their mettle as elite squads. None of these squads have won anything meaningful which means that they're hungry and brimming with promise. The East is the Wild West. If we're being honest, no one knows exactly what the pecking order will be even a year from now.

Of course, that doesn't mean it doesn't hurt to try. As Celtics fans, I think it's important we do an honest job of sizing up the competition out East. There will be some real heavyweights jousting for home court advantage in this conference for years to come and here are my thoughts on who matters, both this year and in the very near future. Let me know if you agree:

Teams That Really Don't Matter, Sorry

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Detroit: This organization has been poorly run for half a decade now and it's saddled with big, long term contracts for players that are done growing or worse, on a downhill trajectory. I like how Stanley Johnson is looking right now but there's just very little upside for this team beyond squeezing into one of the last playoff spots. Not a threat.

Atlanta: They're not a free agent destination and they don't yet have an alpha prospect. That means they're at least two years away from being relevant, let alone elite. I don't see the Hawks being good again until the mid 2020s.

Charlotte: Another poorly managed organization that is far too expensive for how mediocre they are. Regardless of whether they keep Kemba or not, they're multiple salary dumping moves away from having the flexibility (and lottery positioning) to even game-plan an ascendance.

Miami: I don't care if they get Jimmy Butler. They have too many bad contracts to get two stars, let alone one. And they just paid another handsome sum to an unproven commodity in Justise Winslow. It's teams like these that you want to have in your conference--organizations that appear content with paying to stay out of the elite teams' way

Cleveland: Let's just say I do not Believe-land. Locking up Kevin Love with a deal that is almost certainly an overpay was a horrible way to start the rebuild. They're barely better off right now than when LeBron left for the first time, and they probably won't get so lucky with the lottery again. The Cavs will stink now and indefinitely.

Chicago: This one was the toughest one of the bunch to include. I think they've overpaid the wrong players, and nothing kills elite upside like giving max money to players that won't bring max value. To make up for the LaVine cap hit and still become elite, they'll need to sign at least one superstar to a team-friendly deal, which is always very difficult to do. Now, Zach LaVine could be the next Victor Oladipo, at which point I take it all back.


Teams With a Roadmap to the Topgettyimages-1040126042-1024x1024.0.jpg

Orlando: This will take the kind of finesse that Orlando has not shown in the past couple of years, but the Magic haven't done enough wrong (and have done just enough right) to stay in the hunt for elite status. They're in Florida, so they've got the state tax thing going for them in case the team ever gets good enough to attract free agents. And between Aaron Gordon, Mo Bamba and Jonathan Isaac, they have the pieces to create a two-star core, at least.

Indiana: Boy, do I love this team. Victor Oladipo proved me so, so wrong (which I love) and they managed to buy relatively low on Myles Turner, who is only one year removed from looking like a superstar-to-be. In a year, they could have TWO bargain stars on the payroll, which is often the basis of forming an elite team. They also have a ton of expiring contracts, meaning that they have good path to healthy cap space for the summer of 2019. If teams were stocks, I'd be buying Indiana right now

Brooklyn: Because they're officially a New York team, they always seem to be in the conversation for free agents and disgruntled stars. Plus, they've got their own draft pick this season! Believe in the Nets!

New York: They really shouldn't be here, given how much mismanagement has been going on in this organization since I've been alive. But they're a New York team that plays in arguably the most famous stadium in the world before the country's largest media market. They're the Knicks, what can I say, and they're one Durant signing (and I guess, a successful Porzingis rehab) away from catapulting to the top half of the East. Also, given their team this year and some help from the powers that be, we'll probably see R.J. Barrett in the orange, white and blue next season.

Washington: We're only two years removed from this team being one Kelly Olynyk miracle game away from making the Conference Finals. The Wizards have two bona fide stars in their prime (Wall and Beal) and yes, they overpaid Otto Porter, but his contract is not unmovable. This is a team that is one Jimmy Butler-esque trade (and some family therapy) away from a return to the East's elite.

The East's Elite

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Philadelphia: Can you believe that Philly will still be able to create a max space this summer? It seems they've had a million chances to score the *it* commodity in the league and despite striking out every time, they still have one last shot this summer. The team is already elite, if we're being honest, slow start notwithstanding. Simply through internal growth from Ben Simmons, they can challenge the rest of the teams in this tier. If they can get another leap out of Embiid or progress from Fultz, then signing another star will become wholly unnecessary. Even if Boston fans hate to think it, this team's future is just as promising as our's.

Milwaukee: Jumping the gun a little here, but even before their undefeated start (so far), I was extremely bullish on the Bucks. They needed a real coach and they got a great one in Budenholzer this summer. Giannis is still so young and has demonstrated the kind of hunger to improve that we only ever see in truly transcendent talents. There's less in the way of high upside talent on the roster (Middleton is 27, Brogdon is about to be 26 and Bledsoe is rounding 30) but the front office has shown the ability to make strong peripheral signings (like getting Brook Lopez on the cheap and drafting Donte DiVincenzo). I don't quite "fear the deer" but let's say I'm wary.

Toronto: Man, does this team look GOOD. For every reason we love our roster in Boston, Toronto brings similar things to the table. They've got the best all-around player in the East, a gritty veteran star in Lowry, and a depth chart as deep as the Marianas Trench. When healthy, the Celtics roster is 10, maybe 10 and a half deep in terms of real, proven rotation players. But Toronto is easily 12 deep. They could lose Kawhi this summer and it would all change, but for now, they're certainly elite.

Boston: I hope that this is a case of saving the best of the last. Boston is absolutely elite, even with their shaky offensive start. They've shown, albeit in different games, that both Kyrie and Gordon simply need time to return to their pre-injury forms. And unlike Toronto, they have built-in upside in the form of two potential All-Stars in Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. This lineup is lengthy, switchy and rangey--built to take on shooting teams like Golden State and Houston. I would pick Boston as the best team to challenge the Warriors in the Finals simply because you have to remove Kyle Lowry from the equation in Toronto once the playoffs start (unfortunately). We're set up to be oh, so good for years to come. If Robert William can become the Celtics' own Clint Capela, then a long-term core of Kyrie, Williams, Brown and Tatum will always attract the kind of supporting talent to stay in the East's elite.

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