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It's not always sunny in San Antonio: Solutions for Pop vs. Kawhi

There has been an abundance of talk recently about Kawhi Leonard. Why wouldn't there be? He's had an amazing start to his career and is definitely a top 5 overall talent in the league when healthy. Yet, his future is up in the air with the Spurs.

Of course we can’t underestimate the ability of Gregg Popovich. If any one can repair the damage done in this situation it’s Pop. He has done it in the past with Tim Duncan and LaMarcus Aldridge. We know that San Antonio will not stop trying to retain Kawhi until he informs them that he does not want to return. However, assuming the worst -Popovich is unable to repair the relationship - NBA and Spurs fans have been speculating some of the best potential returns the Spurs can hopefully receive for Kawhi. Two things are quickly apparent.

First, in asking Spurs fans who they may be interested in trading Kawhi for, they were quick to dismiss packages centered on lesser stars, albeit still stars, such as Minnesota's Jimmy Butler, Portland's CJ McCollum, and Washington's Bradley Beal. I find this surprising. It seems as though the fans would rather take a chance on a package filled with some risk and plenty of upside.

Second, fans often misunderstand the dynamics of a situation such as the one the Spurs are in with their 26-year-old star. Kawhi has the power to limit trades to certain teams and cities by communicating that he will not resign. This will complicate any trade scenario. A trade package with Phoenix centered around Josh Jackson, Dragan Bender, and 2018 first-round pick is appealing to many Spurs fans but unlikely a situation in which Kawhi would offer his future commitment to.

That leaves us with five for Kawhi. Five potential trade scenarios that Spurs fans have interest in IF their young superstar refuses to return to San Antonio. Then fans of the trade target responded with what they thought about each trade proposal. In all we asked hundreds of fans to respond. Here are the results.

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Jaylen Brown, Terry Rozier, 2019 SAC first-round pick

Spurs fans chose this package: 39%

Celtics fans say yes: 12%

Could the Celtics offer the best package? A trade centered around Jaylen Brown, Terry Rozier, and the SAC 2019 first-round draft pick could be enticing to the Spurs, especially with how well those players have performed in the playoffs. An NBA agent recently floated this trade package to Bleacher Report.

"If I’m the Spurs, I trade him to Boston for Brown, Rozier and a first," the agent said.

Spurs fans seems to be interested, with 39% choosing this trade package as their favorite of the five. Brown is already close to being an Eastern Conference All-Star and seems to be on his way to stardom. The second-year player made massive leaps this season - especially with his three-point shot - and could be a potential franchise player in San Antonio. His combination of strength and athleticism provides great impact on both the defensive and offensive end.

Rozier has emerged this season, especially since the Kyrie Irving injury. Under Gregg Popovich, Rozier would be a great fit. His high basketball IQ and athleticism on both sides of the ball would help him to thrive in San Antonio. With Rozier starting at the 1 and Brown at the 3, the Spurs would add two starters and one of the most valuable picks in the league, the 2019 Kings pick.

However, Celtics fans are much more hesitant, with only 12% saying yes to this deal. The Celtics would have a lot to consider in breaking up a young core that already looks poised to compete for championships. The current Celtics roster provides perhaps a longer championship window, though not as strong of a current one if Kawhi took the place of Brown in the lineup.

Furthermore, the volume of players needed to fill salary makes this trade a cap issue more than a talent problem. Keeping Horford, Hayward, Irving, Brown, and Tatum allows the Celtics to manage three maximum salaries at a time (assuming Brown and Tatum earn the max as Horford's and Hayward's current contracts expire). Perhaps switching Horford for Brown eases some of the cap issues, but may complicate the lineups in Boston and interest in such a trade would likely decline in San Antonio.

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Kristaps Porzingis, Enes Kanter, 2021 first-round pick

Spurs fans chose this package: 12%

Knicks fans say yes: 13%

If Kawhi Leonard is looking to move to a larger market to capitalize on his likeness, the New York Knicks are likely on the top of his list. Any deal for Leonard would have to include Kristaps Porzingis, whom the Spurs front office is allegedly very interested in, though the fans are less enthralled with only 12% choosing this package. Knicks fans also seem disinterested in such a deal, with only 13% saying yes. It’s a steep price for the Knicks, but the addition of Leonard could alter the future of the franchise by enticing other stars to come to New York. And even though the fans of both franchises may not love this trade, it's one that makes sense for both

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Kyrie Irving

Spurs fans chose this package: 9%

Celtics fans say yes: 18%

On his radio show, Stephen A. Smith hypothetically posed the question of whether the Boston Celtics and Spurs should consider a swap of Kawhi Leonard and Kyrie Irving due to the emergence of Terry Rozier in Boston.

"Should the Boston Celtics consider trading Kyrie Iriving to the San Antonio Spurs for Kawhi Leonard? I just want to throw that out there because if you had Kawhi and you got Terry Rozier and Marcus Smart, when you put Kawhi with Gordon Hayward, with Jayson Tatum with Jaylen Brown, oh lord have mercy."

It's a trade that could definitely make from a Spurs perspective as Irving may be the only superstar they could obtain in exchange for their own superstar. For Boston, trading Irving for Leonard improves the defense and eases some of the cap issues that the previous Celtics trade would cause, but again may complicate the lineups in Boston with potentially four star wings in Leonard, Hayward, Brown, and Tatum. And the fans of both teams, they don't seem to love this trade either.

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Markelle Fultz, Dario Saric, Jerryd Bayless, LAL 2018 first-round pick

Spurs fans chose this package: 26%

76ers fans say yes: 62%

Spurs fans seem to like the variety in a trade package with the 76ers, with 26% choosing this trade package as their favorite of the five. This trade would accomplish multiple things for the Spurs front office. First, it sends Kawhi Leonard to the Eastern Conference. Second, it provides the Spurs with high upside young talent.

Receiving a starter in Dario Saric, former first-round pick in Markelle Fultz, and the number 10 pick in this year's very talented NBA draft can all be helpful in softening the blow from losing a superstar. It would be interesting to see what Dario Saric (24 years old) and Markelle Fultz (turns 20 on May 29th) could do under Gregg Popovich.

For the 76ers, 62% say yes to this deal, recognizing that adding a top-five player isn't something the Sixers can just dismiss, especially after coming up short against Boston in this year's postseason. Selling low on Fultz and forfeiting his potential along with offering Saric and the Lakers pick seems like a lot, but Leonard elevates them to a championship contender. Sending Jerryd Bayless' expiring salary is also a net gain.

In addition, any team trading for Leonard relies on a handshake agreement in regards to signing an extension. Philadelphia should have an advantage over many teams in trusting if Leonard will resign with the 76ers because coach Brett Brown has a relationship with Leonard from his days as an assistant in San Antonio.

However, if the 76ers are confident that they can sign a star in free agency, there might not be a need to give up assets to obtain Leonard. Of course, as the Lakers have learned, cap space is no guarantee of signing a star player.

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Brandon Ingram, Channing Frye, LAL 2019 first-round pick

Spurs fans chose this package: 14%

Lakers fans say yes: 52%

As other teams would likely offer more players and picks, San Antonio's interest in this trade will depend on their beliefs about Ingram as a better prospect than anyone else available for Leonard. Spurs fans have interest (14% chose this package) in the 20-year-old Ingram who is considered to be a potential cornerstone to build around moving forward. He continues to improve while being one of the most versatile players on the Lakers, which speaks to his potential upside in Popovich's system. If the Spurs can also get the Lakers to add another asset such as Kyle Kuzma, this package becomes even more enticing.

For the Lakers, their fans love this potential trade, with 52% saying yes. Leonard helps them lure another superstar and expedites their road to becoming a contender. And despite the promise Ingram has shown at age 20, obtaining a 26-year-old superstar could be well worth it, especially if the Lakers can land Lebron James or Paul George this offseason.

Yet, free agency could be the same reason why the Lakers don't make a trade. There have been rumors that Leonard is eyeing a return to his hometown Lakers as a free agent in 2019. If the Lakers know they can get Kawhi without giving up assets, they may just wait until next year.

Yet, there are never guarantees about next year, and if the Lakers can use free agency to secure Lebron James and Paul George, then trading for Kawhi now makes even more sense. Those additions would limit the salary cap flexibility to land Kawhi in 2019 and Brandon Ingram's contribution to an accelerated championship window would be significantly less than Leonard's. Imagine a super team in Los Angeles consisting of Lebron James, Paul George, and Kawhi Leonard. I'm afraid it could happen. But would the Spurs allow it to happen?

In the end, anything will be possible this offseason. The 76ers and Lakers can offer an enticing package of prospects for Leonard. However, my guess is that Pop might prefer talent that is more concrete in return. Portland's CJ McCollum, Washington's Bradley Beal, and New York's Kristaps Porzingis all feel like the headliner in a trade Pop might approve of.

If you're running the Spurs, which trade would you make?

- NBAphd.com

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