FanPost

The Misinformation on Jayson Tatum

There has been a lot said about the perceived progress or lack thereof when it comes to last year's shiniest new toy in Jayson Tatum. After his showing throughout the playoffs, it was natural (right or wrong) for most fans to expect that coming into this season, Tatum would continue to display growth following the disappointing end to last season in the Eastern Conference Finals. While Tatum has shown improvement in multiple areas, the prevailing narrative seems to be that the 20-year old has not lived up to the lofty expectations placed on him by fans of all teams alike. So let's take a look at what Tatum has done so far in his career and if there is a reason to be concerned with regards to his future growth and potential.

Raw 2017-2018 reg. season stats: 30.5 mpg| 13.9 ppg (47.5% on 10.4 FGA| 43.4% on 3.0 3PA| 82.6% on 3.2 FTA)| 5.0 rpg| 1.6 apg| 1.0 spg| 0.7 bpg| 1.4 tov|

Raw 2017-2018 playoff stats: 35.9 mpg| 18.5 ppg (47.1% on 13.7 FGA| 32.4% on 3.7 3PA| 84.5% on 5.1 FTA)| 4.4 rpg| 2.7 apg| 1.2 spg| 0.5 bpg| 2.2 tov

Raw 2018-2019 reg season stats: 31.0 mpg| 16.2 ppg (44.4% on 13.4 FGA| 36.9% on 4.6 3PA| 84.6% on 3.2 FTA)| 6.3 rpg| 1.8 apg| 1.0 spg| 0.7 bpg| 1.5 tov

Just based on these raw statistics it can be hard to tell what is actual growth and what is a function of the increased workload and minutes. This is especially true when considering that Gordon Hayward missed nearly the entire season last year and Kyrie Irving missed the end of the season and the entirety of the playoffs. Adding two new ball-dominant weapons like that will obviously lead to reduced roles and workloads for everyone on the roster, and Tatum is not immune to this. Therefore we should rely on stats that correct for minutes played and per-possession in order to get a clearer picture on what Tatum has or has not improved on so far.

Per 36 min 2017-2018 reg. season stats: 16.4 ppg (47.5% on 12.3 FGA| 43.4% on 3.6 3PA| 82.6% on 3.8 FTA)| 5.9 rpg| 1.9 apg| 1.2 spg| 0.9 bpg| 1.7 tov|

Per 36 min 2017-2018 playoff stats: Tatum already averaged 35.9 mpg so these are virtually identical to his raw playoff stats

Per 36 min 2018-2019 reg. season stats: 18.8 ppg (44.4% on 15.5 FGA| 36.9% on 5.3 3PA| 84.6% on 3.7 FTA)| 7.3 rpg| 2.1 apg| 1.2 spg| 0.9 bpg| 1.7 tov

Looking at these numbers, you can see Tatum has been more aggressive taking shots, taking 3 more shots and almost 2 more threes than his rookie season. He has shown an improved ability to rebound while slightly increasing his assist numbers. These give us an idea of how his season is going but more numbers are needed to fully appreciate the difference.

Per 100 Poss 2017-2018 reg. season stats: 22.8 ppg (47.5% on 17.1 FGA| 43.4% on 5.0 3PA| 82.6% on 5.3 FTA)| 8.2 rpg| 2.6 apg| 1.7 spg| 1.2 bpg| 2.3 tov|

Per 100 Poss 2017-2018 playoff stats: 26.5 ppg (47.1% on 19.7 FGA| 32.4% on 5.4 3PA| 84.5% on 7.3 FTA)| 6.3 rpg| 3.9 apg| 1.7 spg| 0.8 bpg| 3.1 tov|

Per 100 Poss 2018-2019 reg. season stats: 25.4 ppg (44.4% on 20.9 FGA| 36.9% on 7.2 3PA| 84.6% on 5.0 FTA)| 9.9 rpg| 2.9 apg| 1.6 spg| 1.1 bpg| 2.3 tov|

By looking at per 100 possession stats, the improvements in Tatum's game become more visible. He has been less efficient offensively (although not significantly so) while increasing his offensive workload closer to the levels he reached during the playoffs (19.5% usage as a rookie, 22.7% USG this year and 23.3% USG in the playoffs). Tatum takes more threes (~5% increase from his rookie year) which is good but he has also increased the percentage of his shots from the midrange (~4% more shots between 3-10 feet, ~3% more shots between 10-16 feet), which isn't ideal but is to be expected as he has shown the ability to knock down tough jumpers off the dribble. The only real concern is the fact that his percentage of shots at the rim has fallen roughly 10% from last year. This, along with his dip in 3P% is why his overall efficiency has suffered a bit, but it isn't something to be overly concerned with. While Tatum has a fairly good handle and the ability to change directions on the move, he often dribbles East to West in an effort to free up space for a fallaway or stepback jumper as opposed to dribbling North to South and attacking the rim. This is especially noticeable when a big is switched onto him. Instead of relying on off the dribble jumpers as a first resort, Tatum and the team would greatly benefit from an improved (or simply re-purposed) handle and forcing the defense to defend his length in space as he attacks the basket.

There are mixed opinions on what Tatum's actual ceiling is as a player: Some believe he is nothing more than a new age Rudy Gay type of player, settling for inefficient shots and unlikely to make a significant jump as most of his offensive skills are already polished to impressive levels for someone his age. Others believe that Tatum has future top-10 potential, that he may be an MVP candidate and could average nearly 30 ppg once he reaches his full potential. I personally fall somewhere in the middle of these two extremes: I believe Tatum can be an all-star/all-NBA 3rd team offensive weapon with two-way potential once he polishes up on his weaknesses on the offensive end. Namely getting to the rim and the free throw line with more regularity (Tatum had a free throw rate of 37.2% in the playoffs compared to 30.9% last year and 23.8% this year). Tatum could also be utilized in more PNR sets, as he can get to the rim fairly easily when using a screen and going downhill. Many of these possessions end in attempts at the rim, however if he cannot get all the way there, he has flashed a little floater from the paint which is just another means of getting a decent shot off. He has also shown an ability to pass out of the PNR or get to the line when posting up, showing that he could be a truly dynamic offensive player when his body fully matures physically. Due to the loaded nature of Boston's team, Tatum hasn't been able to fully display all of his offensive talents on a game by game basis (Kyrie & Smart being out in Brooklyn gave us a preview of Tatum in a consistently larger role), but there are enough positive signs to be very optimistic about his future.

As for the defensive side of the ball, Tatum still has two main weaknesses: his strength and his ball-watching when off the ball. Tatum has the propensity to get backdoored especially when defending players along the baseline, and although he has gotten stronger, he can still be overpowered by bigger, longer wings and bigs. Tatum's length is his most effective tool defensively. It allows him to trail ballhandlers off the dribble or around screens and still be able to contest and even block shots from behind. His length also allows him to disrupt opposing PNRs, as his long arms are useful in deflecting and picking off pocket and cross-court passes. As long as Tatum does not allow his offense to dictate his effort level on defense (something the entire team has done far too often this year), he will continue to be a positive player on that end of the court.

Overall, everyone will have their own opinion on whether they believe Tatum has progressed or regressed this season, and depending on what factors you look at and value, you will form your own conclusion. Tatum has likely been the second or third best Celtic all year and will continue to improve going forward. How much so remains to be seen, if he can focus on utilizing his ball handling to attack off the dribble more often and use his length to finish or get to the free throw line. After the playoffs last year, Tatum set himself up to be the subject of extreme praise or criticism depending on how you view his season so far, and fair or not, that is the territory that comes with a young player playing well in the playoffs. Going forward I hope to see Tatum in less pure isolation sets (posting up mismatches notwithstanding) and used as a PNR ball handler more often especially when staggered with the second unit, to relieve Hayward of some of that pressure and to move Rozier off the ball more where he is best.

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