FanPost

Putting the 2018 Celtics Playoffs in Context

Al Horford was the MVP of the Celtics playoff run that ended a game short of making the NBA finals. Every time average Al was off the court I was counting the seconds until he was back on. It is clear that there is a Horford Effect, (someday I really am going to write a post exclusively about the Horford effect).

It is interesting to look at how the other rotation players; Aron Baynes, Marcus Morris, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Semi Ojeleye, Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier played alongside Horford, which I have sorted by NETRG.

LINEUPS

GP

MIN

OFFRTG

DEFRTG

NETRTG

AST%

AST/TO

AST RATIO

OREB%

DREB%

REB%

TO RATIO

EFG%

TS%

PACE

PIE

.A. Horford, .M. Smart

15

295

105.9

93.6

12.3

60.0

2.36

16.4

20.4

74

46.5

0.1

50.1

55.4

100.95

54.1

.A. Horford, .J. Tatum

19

539

107.8

100.2

7.6

60.0

2.13

17.6

22.3

74.7

48.2

0.1

52.4

56.1

94.85

53.5

.A. Horford, .M. Morris

19

380

107.5

100.6

6.9

60.6

2.40

17.1

20.2

72.9

45.9

0.1

51.1

56.1

97.46

54.0

.A. Horford, .S. Ojeleye

17

133

101.1

95.8

5.3

61.0

1.49

16.9

21.4

82.7

53.3

0.1

54.0

58.3

101.04

52.2

.A. Horford, .T. Rozier

19

586

106.6

102.3

4.4

59.6

2.06

17.0

23.0

74.7

48.0

0.1

50.6

54.7

94.88

52.3

.A. Horford, .J. Brown

18

471

105.8

102.3

3.4

58.3

2.09

16.4

23.8

75.1

48.3

0.1

49.5

53.8

95.75

51.2

.A. Horford, .A. Baynes

19

204

102.0

103.7

-1.7

54.2

1.62

15.5

28.3

72.2

50.5

0.1

50.9

53.8

95.48

49.4

There a few items that speak to me. The first is the Al’s NETRTG was highest when Smart was on the floor, in large part because the DEFRTG was a very stingy 93.6. There was a very dramatic difference between the Bucks 3P% in games 1-4, when Smart was out versus when he returned. I tried to make note of the impact Smart had when and returned, and how the Celtics were running their Cetics Playoff Defense

Also in the debate about pairing Morris or Baynes with Horford, the playoff numbers indicate that Morris pairs better with Al better than Baynes does (which is not the same thing as saying Morris is better than Baynes or that you might want to have at least one of Baynes or Al on the court at all times).

Teams that traditionally go deep into the NBA playoffs are typically veteran teams. The vets who pace themselves during the regular season push themselves to their limits and beyond. The recovery and rebuild period can be 6-8 week shorter than a player that didn’t make the playoffs.

Most young players work on their individual skills shooting and handle, or one on one, it is hard to work on the skills that connect teammates passing and rotating defense, unless you are playing with your teammates. The challenge is how you integrate your individual skills into a team game.

Coming into this season the narrative to create controversy and emotionally charged discussion that drives the monetization of the NBA with clicks and ratings was and is "Rising Stars Versus Kyrie".

Fairly or unfairly it is the "Rising Stars" Tatum, Brown, and Rozier, got the lion’s share of the credit, but they were also saddled with the weight of championship expectations.

The "Rising Star" narrative, also distorts the role that Smart and Morris played 2018 playoff success. The common view of two Marcus’s is that they were ballast that the C’s should be dropped to get under the Luxury Tax (me sadly shaking my head) even though both are playing on very favorable team contracts. Baynes was also a key component to the Celtics success.

The Celtics played some very bad basketball to start the season. The too many stars, too selfish players was the explanation. With controversy about who was our really wasn’t a star and who is being selfish.

While trying to escape who was at fault (not to say some individuals weren’t playing better than others), I was growing tired of the Celtic on Celtic on crime. I was looking for answers about how the Celtics were going to get better. It was clear the pieces weren’t quite fitting together. I gravitated to this quote from Red Auerbach:

They said you have to use your five best players but I found you win with the five who fit together the best.

Which brings us full circle back to Horford, the MVP of the Celtics 2018 playoffs, has been consistently playing well in big games, ever since Marcus Morris and Marcus Smart, they two plyers that complemented Horford the best in last season’s starting were inserted in the starting lineup the Celtics most used five man lineup of Horford, Morris, Tatum, Smart, and Irving has been among the best in the league.

If you go back to look at how players paired with Horford from the 2018 playoffs using NETRTG as the scale it was Smart, Morris, and Tatum, in that order. Even though there was little debate that Irving belonged in the starting lineup to open the season, there was still friction.

The Terry and Kyrie discussions are around two areas. Terry seems to play better when he starts and the Celtics seem to "look" better when Terry starts.

Rozier wouldn’t be the first player that plays better as a starter, however his Restricted Free Agent status combined with Kyrie’s Unrestricted Free Agent status, leads to some rather extreme narratives. From trade Terry for a future asset to trade or don’t re-sign Kyrie, because he isn’t worth the cost, be it financial, health, or emotional baggage, besides Rozier is nearly as good as Kyrie, and the Celtics play better without Kyrie.

If I look at how the C’s finished the 2018 playoffs against the Cavs. The series was tied 2-2, going into game five, the C’s won game five at home, then lost game six on the road and game seven at home, end of season. (Note I am not trying to show on balance how Rozier did in the playoffs, which on balance was very good. I am trying to understand what didn’t work when the series turned).

LINEUPS

GP

MIN

OFFRTG

DEFRTG

NETRTG

AST%

AST/TO

AST RATIO

OREB%

DREB%

REB%

TO RATIO

EFG%

TS%

PACE

PIE

.A. Horford, .T. Rozier

3

87

95.2

93.4

1.8

63.8

2.06

16.4

22.1

80

47.6

0.1

44.9

48.6

92.4

51.9

.M. Morris, .T. Rozier

3

68

99.3

100.7

-1.5

64.6

2.07

16.5

26.7

78.7

50

0.1

47.1

51.3

95.76

50.4

.M. Smart, .T. Rozier

3

54

105.6

107.6

-2.1

69.2

2.7

17.6

30

66.7

46.3

0.1

49

52.8

94.56

47.9

.T. Rozier, .J. Tatum

3

89

87.8

97.6

-9.8

65.5

1.89

15.9

19.4

81.3

46.2

0.1

42.6

46.1

91.47

45.3

.T. Rozier, .J. Brown

3

79

90

101.3

-11.3

57.1

1.47

14.2

21.8

69.6

44.6

0.1

43.2

46.5

92.13

40.6

.A. Baynes, .T. Rozier

3

56

82.7

102.8

-20.1

51.5

1

12.4

26.7

76.8

50.9

0.2

41.8

44.5

91.22

38.1

Looking at who Rozier paired well with the same pattern of Horford, Morris, Smart appearing near the top, followed by Tatum, Brown, and Baynes.

The figures I find most troubling are the TS% and the OFFTRTG. The Celtics offense had been reduced to essentially a three point shooting team. Thomas and Irving had played major roles in Brad’s Stevens offense. Terry Rozier did a very respectable job shooting threes and taking good care of the ball. But TZ could not match Thomas or Irving for their abilities to break down a defense, score at the rim, get fouled, drive and dish, and force the opposition to double team him. The Celtics really missed Kyrie those last three games and in particular game seven.

Tatum, Brown, and Rozier were extremely impressive in last year’s playoffs especially considering their youth, and they have bright futures. They untold story of last year’s playoffs is the contributions of Marcus Morris and Marcus Smart.

It is also clear that among the seven players returning from last year’s playoffs, there was a lack of a go ball handler/scorer slash playmaker necessary to be at championship level.

The good news for the Celtics is that Kyrie can fill that style albeit with more of pure iso style that puts Kyrie on ball a lot of the time, and reduces player movement, but is extremely effective even in late and close situations in the half court.

More good news Gordon Hayward is regaining his game, which is based more on ball/player movement and is doing a great job now with the C’s second unit.

When the ball handling/playmaking skills of both Kyrie and Hayward can be integrated into the same lineups, then the Celtics will be the super team that will break through their championship ceiling.



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