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Marcus Smart's Case for DPOY

It’s rare that guards get mentioned as Defensive Player of the Year candidates. This year Mikal Bridges is The Athletic’s Zach Harper’s choice for DPOY. Another of The Athletic’s content platforms, the Nerder She Wrote podcast, recently featured a conversation about Smart possibly deserving DPOY. In that conversation they Nerder guys have a discussion that sounded a lot like Marcus’s post Pistons game comments. Bigs usually win because defenses are designed for them to finish the defensive play. Defenses funnel offensive players toward their bigs, and as a result defensive stats and attention usually favor them. For a guard, or wing, to win the DPOY they have to have a truly exceptional year on the defensive end. Two seasons ago Marcus Smart was the only 1st Team All Defense selection under 6’10". Last year was the same, but with Jrue Holiday in Smart’s place. Since early frontrunner for the award, Draymond Green, has been more or less disqualified after missing a huge chunk of the season there isn’t a clear choice. Maybe this is the year for a "little" guy?

If this is the year of the guard for DPOY it seems to be a two man race- Marcus Smart and Mikal Bridges. Both deserve to be 1st Team All Defense this season. Bridges has been excellent this year. Both will probably be hurt by playing on teams packed with elite defenders. On the Celtics Rob, Horford, and even Tatum also have at least some kind of case to be on an All Defense team. While the Suns don’t have quite the same abundance of defensive stars they do have CP3, Jae Crowder, Ayton, and McGee on the roster. All of them have been excellent and important for the Suns’ defense.

As the Nerder guys mentioned in their podcast defense is team effort. Everyone has to be dialed in for a defense to work, so it’s hard to single out an individual. Defensive metrics are also notoriously questionable. Smart’s case isn’t entirely a statistical one, but I’ll start there in comparing him to Bridges.

Opponents Points per 100 Possessions (The difference in opponents points/100 with the player on the floor vs off per Cleaning the Glass)

Smart- -3.5

Bridges- +3.9

Opponents Effective Field Goal % (The difference in opponents EFG% with the player on the floor vs off per Cleaning the Glass)

Smart- -1.2%

Bridges- -0.5%

Opponents Field Goal % (Opponent’s FG% when guarded by player, NBA.com)

Smart- 42.7%

Bridges- 46.2%

Steals per Game

Smart- 1.8

Bridges- 1.2

Deflections per Game (NBA.com)

Smart- 2.9

Bridges- 2.1

Loose Balls Recovered per Game (NBA.com)

Smart- 1.2

Bridges- 0.4

Defensive Win Shares (Basketball Reference)

Smart- 3.0

Bridges- 3.1

Defensive Box Plus-Minus (Basketball Reference)

Smart- 1.7

Bridges- 1.2

Defensive Rating (Basketball Reference)

Smart- 107

Bridges- 109

Defensive Total RAPTOR (538)

Smart- +1.8

Bridges- +0.4

Defensive Real Plus-Minus (ESPN)

Smart- 3.48

Bridges- 4.74

Defensive DPM (Daily Plus Minus)

Smart- 1.55

Bridges- .12

There isn’t really a statistical argument for Bridges over Smart. The Celtics hold opponents to 3.5 fewer points per 100 possessions with Smart on the floor while the Suns allow 3.9 points more per 100 possessions with Bridges on the floor. That and the dramatic difference in opponent field goal percentage are the most convincing stats for me, but I don’t know that the stats are all that important. What separates Marcus from the other DPOY candidates is his role on the Celtics’ defense. Rudy Gobert is a backstop. Giannis is a rover. Mikal Bridges is a wing "stopper," and good off ball defender. It’s easy to see Bridges harassing an opposing star, or Gobert deterring shots near the rim, or Giannis creating havoc off ball. Marcus is different. He’s an elite on and off ball defender. We can see that in the stats. What we don’t see is his leadership. Smart is the tone setter and coach on the floor for the by far the best defense in the NBA. I thought Rob said it well after the Pistons game when the Celtics didn’t allow a field goal for 12 minutes-

"I think Smart deserves it (DPOY) to be honest. A lot of my defensive grit and my will to fight out there I get from just watching him, even in practice. Him being vocal. He’s a great defensive anchor for us but he’s a better leader. And he doesn’t even know it. He’s always talking, putting guys where they need to be."

That’s the difference. Smart is quarterbacking an historically great defense. The Celtics’s starting 5 have been probably the best defensive starting 5 of the pace and space era. Smart and the starters have a defensive net rating of 92.0 while Bridges and the Suns starters defensive rating is 108.7. That 16.7 points per 100 difference is less that the difference between the 1st in net rating Suns, +7.6, and the 28th place Thunder, -7.8. The Celtics have a number of elite defenders on the team, and that will probably hurt Marcus’s chances, but it shouldn’t. It should help them because players like Rob wouldn’t be the same without Smart on the roster.

Draymond was the overwhelming favorite to win the DPOY award before his injury. He can do pretty much everything on defense individually, but what makes him truly special is his ability to organize and lead an elite defensive team. His absence has seen the Warriors defense fall off a cliff. Smart is a smaller Draymond. He can do everything on defense, but his value is as the defensive superstar who stirs the drink. If this is the year a perimeter player is named the league’s best defender it should be Smart, and it shouldn’t be close.

PS- I’ve watched some Suns games this year, and didn’t remember Bridges doing anything especially exceptional on defense. I watched some defensive highlights and some games to get a feel for what he has been doing. He’s been good for sure, but remember the Celtics vs Suns game back on New Year’s Eve? The Celtics were missing Tatum and the Suns were missing Crowder, Ayton, and McGee. The Celtics destroyed the Suns despite not having their best offensive player. They had a 30 point lead for nearly half the game. They didn’t do it by making a ton of 3s (10 for 27). They did it by attacking the rim. Without their rim protectors the Suns were a mess, and the game was a layup line. The Celtics guards and wings (Smart, Brown, Richardson, Romeo, and Pritchard) scored 94 points in that game. The entire Suns team scored 108. Without their rim protectors the Suns perimeter defenders got absolutely obliterated by a Celtics offense that wasn’t especially sharp at the time.



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