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Celtics Offseason Preview

I feel like I was really consistent throughout all of last season. If you review my posts, the underlying indicators always showed that the Celtics were a good team, they just had to get a little luckier and healthier. At times, it looked like that health would never come. But even in those moments, the core was performing so well that I strongly advocated against breaking them up. Then, the core came together, finally healthy, and took the Celtics to within a championship. So naturally, all the talk this off-season has been about breaking the team up.

Now, to be fair, there’s no reason to not improve your team. But we’ve witnessed first hand how superteams on paper don’t always work out. You know that this one does. So I think this off-season is about improvement on the margins, where the team struggled, without shaking up the core pieces.

But first, let’s evaluate what those problems are, or were. The primary takeaway most have is the need for a point guard. I actually disagree. There is no player, who the Celtics can acquire, who I would want handling the ball in critical situations over Tatum and Brown. Those guys will need breaks, but that’s why you have Marcus Smart. And Derrick White. Those guys are about as "pure" of point guards as you can find. They play off the ball in Boston sometimes because… they play next to Brown and Tatum. Adding another non-shooting point guard isn’t going to help. In fact, I think it would make things worse.

Look, I understand the viewpoint. I was a huge fan of the Schroder signing last year because I thought Tatum and Brown were both capable of offensive lapses and lack of consistency. I thought Schroder would be able to get you good offense in a pinch. And, he did. Schroder was integral to the little bit of success the team did have early going through injuries. But when Tatum and Brown were running the offense, or when Smart was running things… he didn’t really have a purpose. His decent three point shooting percentages (and Richardson’s for that matter) didn’t change how teams defended him. White poses some of the same challenges, but he contributes enough in the other areas to be helpful. But I don’t need another.

Where the team does clearly need help is in a wing scorer. I still believe in Nesmith, and if the shot comes back he’s definitely a rotation guy. But he can’t be the only backup wing on the roster. And, to the point of Brown and Tatum occasionally being inconsistent, here’s a spot for a guy to come in and get some buckets. Brown and Tatum are stars, because they get shots for themselves and others. The Celtics have guys who are also capable of getting shots for others. They have guys who can capitalize on shots created for them by Tatum and Brown. But they don’t have anyone who can get a bucket for themself in a pinch, while also not taking away from the offense when they aren’t. I think one high quality wing and another injury insurance wing/guard behind Nesmith would be extremely valuable.

And then there’s the Theis question. Contrary to the recent narrative, I think Theis is still really good. Just two years ago, he started on an Eastern Conference Finals team. When. Rob went down, Theis ended up taking the starting spot away from Grant because he was more consistent in his role. But he is a little bit less versatile than the rest of the team. And he’s making a lot of money. That contract is great for salary matching. But if the team uses the TPE straight (more on this later), I can’t imagine ownership would also want to pay Theis. And if the team wants to make a trade that doesn’t fit into the TPE, Theis is the obvious way to match salaries. So there’s a good chance he’s gone. If he is, the team will need to find a backup center to steal minutes and cover for injuries, at least in the regular season, and it can’t be another plodding Kanter clone. Theis is good. If you trade him and don’t bring a quality center in, and then pay the price later, that’s indefensible.

Before we officially look forward, I’d also like to note some points of improvement for the members of the team. Tatum could probably work on his one on one game a bit. I’d like to see him go back to the step back a little more often, as opposed to constantly forcing the issue into the paint. Jaylen showed the most in-season passing improvement of anyone on the team. I’d like to see him continue to work on reading the defense, and not just reacting and looking to pass when he realizes he can’t score. I’d also like to see him continue to work on that step back jumper. And then, obviously, he needs to work on going left. He’s all right hand at this point. Grant needs to be more consistent as a shooter. He has too many games where he is invisible. If he ever wants to start, that can’t happen. Those are the obvious ones. Everyone else just needs to rest and get some shots up.

Now, for the acquisitions. I mentioned the TPE earlier. I don’t actually think it’s vital for the Celtics to use it. You don’t love wasting potential assets, but I wouldn’t want to force anything either. You have the Theis deal to help match up to a certain amount if you need to. Even if you do use the TPE, you could use Theis to match salary and create a new one if you want. Another thing I’m wary about is giving up too many more first round picks. The Celtics haven’t had one in two years. Not only does this restrict young talent, but it also makes your roster significantly more expensive. At some point, you need cost controlled talent. For specific targets, there are plenty of primers, but I’ll offer my thoughts below.

One bucket is guys making roughly $15-20 million. This includes TPE targets and Theis trade targets. I think the list has two starts with Kevin Huerter and Bogdan Bogdanovic, both wings on the Hawks. The Hawks are looking to sell, so both could be available. Huerter fits into the TPE and is only 24, while Bogdanovic is 30 and doesn’t, but is the significantly better player. Huerter also has 4 years left on his contract while Bogdanovic only has one (plus a player option). You’d probably rather Huerter, but Bogdanovic is the better player and would be cheaper. Both are perfect fits for what the team needs. You could also look to Buddy Hield. He makes too much for the TPE, but he’s a knockdown shooter who has really improved as a playmaker. Eric Gordon is also slightly too big for the TPE and on the older side, but he would also bring a 3&D presence. From Washington, there’s KCP and Kuzma. I can’t really imagine why Washington would sell Kuzma, as he’s young and good for them. He’s also not the best fit in Boston, as he’s not the best shooter and prefers to get more touches. But he fits the TPE and is good. KCP is a more seamless fit and more affordable, though he doesnt really offer much in the shot creation department.

There are also a few other cheaper trade candidates that I’d like to throw out. Justin Holiday started every game for the Kings after being traded from Indiana, but he’s older and has a year left in his contract. He’s a solid 3&D guy who could potentially be had for a 2nd round pick or two. The Celtics should be calling. Then there’s Phoenix, who is reportedly trying to shed salary. Dario Saric and Torrey Craig both have one year and at $5-10 million each. I would call. The Celtics could also inquire on Cam Payne and Cam Johnson while they’re at it.

I would also like to break the free agents into MLE targets and minimum targets. First, I’ll go over potential taxpayer MLE options. Isaiah Hartenstein would be my top target if Theis gets traded, as he would be the best value at the price for me. Thomas Bryant could be another big option. In terms of wings, Kyle Anderson, Gary Harris, Taurean Prince, Nic Batum, Victor Oladipo, and Joe Ingles intrigue me the most, though some of those guys may price themselves out.

I think the Celtics could be serious players acquiring players on the minimum after making a finals run. TJ Warren could be a similar signing to Oladipo last year, and we know the Celtics have had interest in the past. I’m not sure how much Thad Young will command, but his versatility intrigues me as Grant insurance. We just saw how annoying Wes Mathews and Otto Porter can be to play against. And Wayne Ellington will always give you shooting. The most appealing big on the minimum for me is Damian Jones. But at that price, they’re all mostly interchangeable.

Now, without fail, Brad will do something different, despite me covering as many bases as I briefly could here. But to me, this is the framework for how the team should be approaching the off-season. No major shakeups. Add wing depth. And get healthy.

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