Current Record (10-6)
It wasn't pretty and wasn't overly enjoyable to watch but Boston pulled out the win in Toronto. We cooled off a little bit in the sportsbook account going 2-2 last game and 6-2 over the last two games.
Raptors team total under 110.5 +125
OG Annunoby over 1.5 3’s -165
Marcus Smart over 12.5 points -135
Al Horford over 1.5 3’s -150
The basketball gods were trying to run me dry Saturday night. Marcus Smart went down before half with only 4 points and as soon as you saw the replay you knew it wasn’t good. Robert Williams also left the game at half after an awkward collision with Jaylen. Safe to say with the way the first half was going and now losing the DPOY and 2nd team center I thought under 110.5 was in serious jeopardy. Thankfully Boston took back control of the game and held Toronto 47 points in the second half hitting the under. OG also left the game with an injury but thankfully knocked a quick 3 to start the game and then cashed this bet for us early in the second quarter, dodged another bullet. Even with Rob leaving at half and Tatum sitting out Al only took five attempts knocking down one, you could tell he simply wasn’t feeling it. With Grant and Payton knocking down everything, Al seemed happy to sit back and delegate the offence to the hot hand.
Tonight, Boston heads to Orlando to face a young and very talented Magic team. Boston will be without both their point guards Smart (ankle) and Brogdon (Personal), look for Payton Prichard to step up big tonight. A lot of eyes will be on the young man tonight as he is at the center of trade talks. This is an audition for not only other teams but why Boston should keep him for a late playoff run. Personally, I am a big fan of Payton, he plays his role, doesn't complain and can be a massive sparkplug off the bench as we saw against Toronto. With as hard as Marcus plays and Brogdon's career-long injury woes, I think we will need a confident PG who can knock down a three from anywhere.
Let’s get into the picks:
1. Tatum over 31.5 points -115
Coming off some well-deserved rest, I presume JT will want to get back to his MVP ways. With Smart and Brogdon out, Tatum knows the offence will heavily rely on him which is nothing new. I expect to see a calm 30+ point performance and hopefully, he attacks the rim early.
2. Derrick White over 1.5 3’s
Taking over the starting point guard role expect to see a lot of Derrick White tonight, he has struggled from downtown as of late but his attempts have been consistent. Knowing he doesn't have to look over his shoulder tonight I think will allow him to play as he did earlier in the season. I expect him to look a little like Klay tonight, spotting up for quick threes and locking up defensively.
3. Jaylen Brown over 27.5 points -105
Toronto was a miserable place for Jaylen, that was up until 5 minutes left in the 4th where he took over offensively and seemed to have gotten his shot back. Orlando has been great to our future 2023 All-Star as he had led the team in scoring vs the Magic in 4/6 matchups. Let's not forget his 50-piece vs them just last season. I may look at taking his alternate line at 30+.
4. I like 2 plays for Orlando tonight:
a. Franz Wagner over 1.5 3’s -145
Being a young and inexperienced team playing against the top dog in the east I expect Orlando to live and die by the 3 tonight. For them to slow Boston down they will have to knock down plenty of shots. Or if Boston plays up to standard Orlando will find themselves down early and will have to shoot their way out of the hole. Both scenarios benefit Franz on the offensive end as he is a talented player who doesn't look to pass often.
b. Paolo Banchero over 18.5 points -125
Banchero has been a stud all season and seems to be running away with the rookie of the year award. Not only is he physically dominant but he can step outside and knock down shots, he has become what we expected out of Ben Simmons. With Smart out and Rob a game-time decision I don't see how Banchero won't take advantage of the lack of defensive presence.
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